Prelim Period
• Chapter 1 – Risk
• Chapter 2 – Risk Management
• Chapter 3 – Tools in Risk Management
Midterm Period
• Chapter 4 – Tools in Risk Identification
• Chapter 5 – Risk Aversion
• Chapter 6 – Insurability of Risks
• Chapter 7 – Case Analysis in Risk Management
Finals Period
• Chapter 8 – Risk and Sustainability
• Chapter 9 – Risk Management Plan
Chapter 1
The Basics
Chapter Overview
After this chapter, you should be able to have a full
understanding of the following:
• Risk
• Risk Analysis
• History of Risk Analysis
• How, Why and When to do Risk Analysis
What is Risk
• Risk is a measure of the probability and consequence of
uncertain future event or events i.e.
Risk
Risk
Management
Assessment
Policy,
Science and
Preferences &
Evidence
Values
Risk Communication
Extensive Risk
Analysis w/ Adaptive Routine Risk
Management Analysis
Uncertainty
Much Little
Minor
Separating What We Know From What We
Do Not Know and Sorting Them Out
Output
Scenar Model
Knowl Criterio
ios and Domai
edge n
Theory n
Variabi Param
lity eter
Things
we
Index
know
Variabl Value
Models e Param
Natural eter
Variabi
lity
Things
we do Decisi
not on Define
know Quantit Variabl d
ies es Consta
nts
Empiri
cal
Quantit
ies
Levels of Uncertainty
• Uncertainty at the macro level affects values through
constantly and rapidly changing social environment.
• Uncertainty at the micro level occurs in the specific details
of the problems decision makers face, at the level of our
scientific knowledge.
• The two levels of uncertainty can pose markedly different
challenges to risk analysis
What is Knowledge Uncertainty
• Refers to uncertainty that results out of lacking or
incomplete information.
• Quantitative uncertainty analysis attempts to analyze and
describe the degree to which a calculated value may differ
from the true value.
• For analysis, probability distributions are used.
Basic Probability Concepts
• Probability is the chance that something will happen.
• Probabilities are expressed as fractions (1/4, 1/2,3/4) or
as decimals (0.25, 0.50, 0.75) between 0 and 1.
• When you assign a probability of 0, it would mean that
something can never happen
• When you assign a probability of 1, it would mean that
something will always happen.
Approaches to Probability
Classical Approach
• Classical probability defines the probability that an
event will occur as: