Probabilistic Formulations For

Earthquake Resistant Structural

Design

By
Adang Surahman
Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering ITB
 Probabilistic Method
• Level IV: Convolution Integral
• Level III: Assumed distribution, Correlation
Coefficient, and/or other simplifying
assumptions
• Level II: LRFD
• Level I: ASD
• Level 0: No safety factor
 Example
• Dead Load: COV = 0.1
• Live Load: COV = 0.25
• Live Load APT: COV = 0.5
• Earthquake: COV = 0.6

• Regression Analysis for LRFD

• Average Safety Factor for ASD
 LRFD vs ASD: As Live Load Varies
3.18

3.16

3.14
Safety Index

3.12

3.1

3.08 LRFD
3.06 ASD
3.04

3.02

3
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4

Live Load
 SNI 1729:2015
3.4
3.2
3
Safety Index

2.8
2.6 LRFD
2.4 ASD
2.2
2
0 0.5 1 1.5
Live Load
 As Earthquake Load Varies
0.0035

0.003
Probability of Failure

0.0025

0.002

0.0015
LRFD
ASD
0.001

0.0005

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4

Earthquake Load
 Earthquake Statistics
0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2
PGA

0.15
Type I
Type II
0.1

0.05

0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Return Period
 Safety Index  = 3.09
• Vertical Load
• 0.9 R = 1.499 D + 1.990 L
• Vertical + Earthquake Load (RP 50 yrs)
• 0.9 R = 1.186 D + 0.294 L + 3.795 E
• Vertical + Earthquake Load (RP 2500 yrs)
• 0.9 R = 1.186 D + 0.294 L + 0.821 E
• 0.9 R = 1.186 D + 1. 176 Lapt + 0.821 E
 Optimum Safety Level
4100

3900

3700

3500
Cost

3300
Structure
3100
Total
2900

2700

2500
2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000

Safety Index
 Loading Conditions

• g1 = 0.9 R - 1.499 D + 1.990 L

• g2 = 0.9 R - 1.186 D + 0.294 L + 3.795 E

Fs = F1 F2 = F1+ F2 – F1F2

P[Fs] = P[F1]+ P[F2] – P[F1F2]
How to calculate P[F1F2]
 P[FiFj] Interpolation
0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12
P[FiFj]

0.1
Max
0.08
Min
0.06
Int
0.04

0.02

0
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Correlation Coefficient
 Actual Probability of Failure
0.0025

0.002

0.0015
P[F1]
P[F2]
0.001
P[F1UF2]

0.0005

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 Conclusions
• ASD Format is risk inconsistent
• LRFD Formats depend on mean, COV,
distribution
• Combined EQ and Lapt not EQ + max L
• EQ Load Factor depends on Return Period
• Interpolation method to calculate P[FiFj] is
introduced
 Recommendations
• Use LRFD Formats based on accurate statistics
• Use building lifetime for EQ return period
• Use interpolation method to calculate P[FiFj]
• Thank You