Introduction to quantitative analysis

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Introduction to quantitative analysis

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UNIVERSITY OF GONDAR

Making - MBAd 511

PART-I Quantitative Analysis/OR/- Introduction

2

Alternative Names:

Operational Research

Operations Analysis

Quantitative Analysis

Quantitative Methods

Systems Analysis

Decision Analysis

Decision Science

3

The Need for Quantitative Analysis /OR/

The need for operations research started when man was driven from the Garden

of Eden.

Ever since, he had been confronted with numerous problems, difficulties and

challenges which ranging from primitive farming to industrial revolution.

This is because man’s action or decision, no matter well intended will bring-

Problem to himself, or

To the other people or

Even to the society at large.

4

Action or decision will bring problem.

Examples

a large office building or operation of an enterprise producing hundreds of products for

diverse customer needs.

5

The Need for Quantitative Analysis /OR/

contractors, hiring labor, pricing goods and planning production facilities.

Managers are confronted with uncertainties as the predictable tastes of consumers, the

speculative nature of economic forecasts and research and development programs

They are also constrained by Government policies and actions of their competitors in

the market

Conclusion- ???

Brief History of OR/MS 6

The field of operations research can be said to have been in existence since the

beginning of mankind.

cattle.

The concept of record keeping was believed to have been developed by them.

For example,

Every morning as the sheep left the field, the herdsmen would drop one pebble into his pocket as

each sheep passed out of the gate. On the animals’ return in the evening, they would be counted for

by the reverse process until no pebbles were left in the pocket. Each pebble left in the pocket

represented a lost sheep and action could be taken to find the animal.

7

Brief History of OR/MS

In the 17th century:

during gambling.

various games of chance.

Brief History of OR/MS

o To ensure that this was done, a team8 of scientists from Britain was drawn

together and instructed that they find solutions to pressing operational problems.

o But when America entered the War, both the British and the American Military

dealing with military operations.

Industry booming,

Specialization &

Computers

9

Definition of QA/MS/OR

problems involving the operations of systems so as to provide those in control

of the operations with optimum solutions to the problems.

operations of large, complex organizations or activities.

solution of managerial decision.

10

Definition

11

From the definitions we found that some certain key words keep coming up.

These are “scientific method”, “system”, “model”, “comparison”, and “decision making”.

That is, these definitions tell us several essential features of O/R and they are:

12

Decision Making

2 or more alternatives

Conclusion = Decision

Systematic process

13

Defining

the problem Evaluating the

alternatives

alternative alternative

courses of

action

14

System Approach

Processes

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Systems

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Earlier on, four essential features of operations research were listed. Two

They are:

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That is, O/R uses mixed teams of members of different discipline backgrounds.

In other words, studies are conducted by mixed teams from diverse disciplines,

other physical sciences.

This might confirm the old age which states that two heads are better than one.

Characteristics of O/R Study 18

The mixed teams approach has made operations research an outstanding new

way of solving problems.

O/R employs teams of experts so that all aspects of a problem may be taken

into account.

For instance,

An industrial engineer may develop a new shop layout that will make it possible to

produce greater output without any increase in either area or personnel.

An O/R team working in the same plant might include representatives of several

physical sciences, mathematics, and engineering, an economist, occasionally a

sociologist, and psychologist.

19

Characteristics of O/R Study

This is because, a system is a set of interacting variables, but each system is part

of a larger system.

For example,

the equipment, the organization structure, and the people.

Characteristics of O/R Study

to get a new equipment or

it might very well affect the attitude of the people in the department or

Similarly, any change in any one of the variables is likely to affect the others, at

least in a minor way.

and any change in it is likely to affect at least some of the variables in other

departments.

And, of course, the company itself is a part of the economy system.

Hence a change in the company might affect other companies in the entire economy

Quantitative Analysis by Dr. Teshale B. 2/28/2019

system of the nation.

21

Thus, rather than consider the effect of changes in variables in a single operation,

organization.

This is because the optimum operation of one part of a system may not

be optimum for some other parts.

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production, reduce intake of raw materials and work forces, it might achieve its

objectives, namely to maximize profit.

But the entire economic system cannot be said to optimize when there are

unemployment and few goods are made available to the public at higher prices.

23

Economics

Operations Management

Finance

Marketing

24

Economics

inequalities, optimal control theory, dynamic programming, game theory,

probability choice models, utility theory, regression and factor analysis and other

techniques to study:

Equilibrium,

Optimal investment,

Competition,

Operations Management

25

People in operations management use statistical sampling and estimation

theory, linear and integer programming, network programming, dynamic

programming and optimal control theory, queuing theory, simulation, artificial

intelligence techniques, and combinatorial optimization methods to solve

problems in:

Quality control,

Allocation of resources,

Quantitative Analysis by Dr. Teshale B. 2/28/2019

26

Finance

People in finance use linear, nonlinear and integer programming, optimal control

Multi-period investments,

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Marketing

People in marketing use regression and factor analysis, time series, game theory,

choice models and utility theory to:

Quantitative Analysis by Dr. Teshale B. 2/28/2019

28

intelligence techniques, propositional and quantified logic, probabilistic logic, data

structures and other computer science techniques, mathematical programming,

and statistical decision theory to:

29

Management Science Techniques/Tools

Linear Programming

Linear constraints

Distribution Models

Transportation problem

Assignment problem

30

Multi-Criteria Decision Making

Network Models:

Evaluated network

CPM, PERT

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