GEOSTATISTIKA

(TKG-233)
KULIAH PERTEMUAN KE-3

Teknik Geologi
2014
PELUANG
• If an event can happen in s ways (success) and fail to happen in f
ways (fail), and if each of these s+f ways is EQUALLY LIKELY
TO OCCUR, (mempunyai kesempatan muncul / terjadi yang
sama) the probability of success (the event happening, peristiwa
yang diharapkan, terjadi) in a single trial is

s
p
s f
And the probability of failure is

f
q
s f
 In a toss of coin, a head can occur only in s=1 way and a tail in f=1
way, and both way are equally likely to occur; thus

1 1
p 
11 2

By definition we see that:

s f s f
pq     1 ( 100%)
s f s f s f
Conditional Probability
• The probability of the occurrence of an event B, given that an
event A has occurred, is called the conditional probability of the
occurrence of the event B .  P (B|A)
• The general formula:
P(BA )
P(B | A) 
P(A)

Where the P (BA) denotes the probability of the occurrence of both

events A and B.
Conditional Probability
• Tabel Hand specimens classified by region and grade
Region

Copper A B C
Low (L) 30 19 8
Medium (M) 10 20 17
High (H) 15 18 13

• If specimen is chosen at random

1. What is the probability that it contains a high level of copper?
2. What is the probability that it contains a high level of copper if we
are told that it came from region A?
Conditional Probability
• Answer
1. In the first case, where we are given no information, the
required probability is 46/150 = 0.31
2. We are told that it came from region A so we need only
consider specimens from that region. The probability of a
specimen in this group containing a high level of copper is
therefore 15/55 or 0.27 we write P(H|A) = 0.27 and describe
this as : "the conditional probability of the specimen containing
a high level of copper, given that it is from region A"
We could write P(H|A) = 15/150
55/150

Question
1. Is it same, P(H|A) and P(A|H) ?
Bayes's Theorem
• ByThomas Bayes
• Conditional probability P(BA )
P(B | A) 
P(A)
• Multiplication rule P(BA) = P(A|B) P(B) so

P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )
P( Bi | A) 
P(B) = prior probability of B
P( A)
P(B|A) = posterior probability of B
P(A|B) = likelihood of A
Where P(A) = P(A|B)P(B) + .... + P(A|Bk)P(Bk)
Bayes's Theorem
• Measurements are made on a fossil which is known to be a
specimen of one of three species. The following table gives the
probabilities of obtaining such a set of characteristics in each
species Species P(characteristic A | species Bi)
B1 0.8
B2 0.3
B3 0.6
• The probabilities of obtaining a specimen of each species are
Species Probability of occurance
B1 0.1
B2 0.4
B3 0.5

• Which species who has the highest posterior probability?

Bayes's Theorem
Answer
Species Prior Likelihood Product Posterior
Probability P(A|B) P(A|B)P(B) P(B|A)
B1 0.1 0.8 0.08 0.16
B2 0.4 0.3 0.12 0.24
B3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.6
Total 1 0.5 1

Species B3 has the highest posterior

probability
Binomial Distribution
• Sering disebut distribusi Bernoulli. Distribusi binomial ditemukan
oleh James Bernoulli. Distribusi binomial adalah suatu distribusi
teoretis yang menggunakan variabel random diskrit yang terdiri dari
dua kejadian yang berkomplemen, seperti sukses-gagal, ya-tidak,
baik-cacat, kepala-ekor, dsb
• Distribusi binomial memiliki ciri-ciri sbh :
1. Setiap percobaan hanya memiliki dua peristiwa, seperti ya-tidak,
sukses-gagal
2. Probabilitas suatu peristiwa adalah tetap tidak berubah untuk setiap
percobaan
3. Percobaannya bersifat independen atau dengan pengembalian, artinya
peristiwa dari suatu percobaan tidak mempengaruhi atau dipengaruhi
peristiwa dalam percobaan lainnya
4. Jumlah atau banyaknya percobaan yang merupakan komponen
percobaan binomial harus tertentu
Binomial Distribution
• hasil percobaan sukses memiliki probabilitas p. Sedangkan
percobaan gagal memiliki probabilitas q
• Distribusi ini seringkali digunakan untuk memodelkan jumlah
keberhasilan pada jumlah sampel n dari jumlah populasi N.
• distribution is symmetric if and only if p = q = ½
Binomial Distribution
• Jika kita memiliki 9 koin yang dilemparkan sebanyak N kali
maka diminta untuk menyusun tabel frekuensi teoritis dan
histogramnya untuk posisi 0,1,2,3,...,9 sisi depan koin
X f Expected f Actual f for
for N=512 N=512
0 (1/512) N 1 2
1 (9/512) N 9 11
2 (36/512)N 36 37
3 (84/512) N 84 88
4 (126/512) N 126 131
5 (126/512) N 126 119
6 (84/512) N 84 82
7 (36/512) N 36 32
8 (9/512) N 9 9
9 (1/512)N 1 1
Binomial Distribution
f

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 X
Histogram for expected (binomial) frequencies in 512 tosses of 9 coins
 Binomial Distribution
The value of Xi fi , Xi2 fi and their sums, needed in this calculation are shown in
the next slide table, then:
h

X f
i i
2304
m i 1
  4.50
N 512
And the standard deviation:
h
( X i f i ) 2
h
2304 
2

X fi  i 1
2
i 11520 
N 512 1152
 i 1
 
N 512 512

 2.25  1.50
Binomial Distribution
Frequency table for calculation of mean and standard deviation of
binomial distribution ( for the example)
Xi fi Xi fi Xi 2 fi
0 1 0 0
1 9 9 9
2 36 72 144
3 84 252 736
4 126 504 2016
5 126 630 3130
6 84 504 3024
7 36 252 1764
8 9 72 576
9 1 9 81
512 2304 11520
 Binomial Distribution

The mean and the standard deviation of a binomial distribution can be

calculated directly from n, p, and q, without the need of any summations
such as those shown in the table

m = n.p
σ = √npq

For those data we find:

m = 9. (1/2) = 4.50 and σ = √ (9)(1/2)(1/2) = √(9/4) = (3/2) = 1.50
Normal Distribution
• If the number of trials n is large, the calculation of frequencies
and probabilities by means of the binomial theorem become
tedious, and we need a more rapid method of calculating
probabilities. Such a method is furnished by the normal
distribution, which is the most important continuous probability
distribution and one of which much statistical theory is based
• In the next slide figure, it shows an increases, the top of
rectangles of the histograms approach a bell-shaped curve. This
limiting frequency curve obtained as n become larger and larger
is called the normal frequency curve.
 Frequenc Frequenc Frequenc
32y 32y 24y

16
16
8

0 1 No. of 0 1 2 No. of 0 1 2 3 No. of

n=1 heads n=2 heads n=3 heads

Frequenc Frequenc Frequenc

24y 20y 20y

12 10 10

No. of 0 1 2 3 4 5 No. of 0 1 2 3 4 5 No.

0 1 2 3
heads heads 6 of
4n=4 n=5 n=6
head
 If the binomial distribution for N samples of n trials each where the
probability of success in a single trial is p, if the value of n increased, the
histogram approaches a curve, called the normal curve, whose equation is:
N
Y e ( X  m ) / 2
2 2

 2
where :
m  mean of the binomial distribution  np
  standar deviation of the binomial distribution  npq,
e  base of the natural logarithms  2.71828...,
  3.14159.....,
Y  frequency with which any X occurs .

The relative frequency (or probability) denoted by P, then P = Y/N , and we can written :
1  ( X  m ) 2 / 2 2 ,
P e
 2
the graph of which is called the normal probability curve.
Y (or f )

140 Histogram and normal

curve for expected
120 frequencies of heads in
tossing 9 coins, 512
100 times

80

60

40

20

X
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
 If we multiply both sides of this equation by σ and let y = Pσ thereby
making σ the unit of measurement on the vertical axis, we can rewrite this
equation as:
1  ( X  m )2 / 2 2 ,
P e
2

In order to measure also the deviation X – m in term of σ , we introduce a

new variable
X m
z

Which represent a measure of the deviation in terms of the standard deviation or in
so-called standard unit.
The above equation can rewrite as; 1  z 2 / 2,
P e
2

Which is called the standard normal probability curve

It is evident that:
1. y and P reach their maximum values when z=0, that is when X = m
2. The curve represent by that equation is symmetrical about the line
drawn at z = 0 perpendicular to the horizontal axis
3. It is observed that as X increases more and more, y becomes smaller and
smaller without, however, ever becoming equal to zero. This means
that the curve approaches the horizontal axis but never touches it.
4. The value of y corresponding to given values of z are listed in the
statistical table: Ordinates (y-values) for the Normal Probability Curve.
5. The value of P corresponding to z =1 and σ = 1.5 is found as :

0.2420
P  0.1613
1.5
 P

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

m-3σ m-2σ m-1σ m m+σ m+2σ m+3σ

X
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 z
Normal probability curve for expected frequencies of heads in tossing 9
coins 512 times
Exercise
• Terdapat 11 bola didalam suatu kotak. 7 diantaranya berwarna
putih, sisanya berwarna merah. Berapakah probabilitas
terambilnya bola merah dari dalam kotak?
• Dalam satu kali lempar dari dua buah dadu, berapa
probabilitasnya untuk
(a) mendapatkan jumlah total angka di dadu = 9
(b) Mendapatkan jumlah total angka dadu selain 9

JAWAB
Untuk mendapatkan jumlah total 9, dari komposisi 6+3, 3+6, 5+4, 4+5 tampak ada
4 kemungkinan sehingga
(a) = 4/36 = 1/9
(b) = 1-1/9 = 8/9
PR
1. Sebanyak 50 sayatan tipis batuan dimana tiga darinya mengandung
mineral apatit. Kita mengambil secara random (acak) berapa peluang
bahwa yang diambil adalah batuan yang mengandung mineral apatit

2. Suatu patahan diketahui memotong lintasan seismik AB sepanjang 100,

tetapi titik perpotongannya tidak diketahui secara pasti. Berapakah
peluang bahwa titik perpotongan tersebut terletak pada jarak 20 meter dari
B

3. Suatu distribusi binomial memiliki n = 6; p=1/4; q=3/4. tentukan nilai

rata-rata, varians, dan simpangan bakunya

4. Pada pelemparan 4 mata uang logam sebanyak 50 kali, terdapat distribusi

sbb
x 0 1 2 3 4
f 3 10 5 17 15
Jika X = gambar angka, tentukan probabilitas sukses keluarnya gambar angka
tersebut (p)
Terimakasih