Chlorine
Lime Soda ash Chlorine addition
addition
Influent
Aeration Softening Filtration Disinfection
Raw
water Presedimenta Coagulation Filtration Adsorption-
-tion GAC
sludge Backwash water
decanted, sludge Disinfection
sludge
Chlorine storage
addition
To distribution
system
The design period for future population should be such that the design does not
become outdated in the near future or overburdens the present population. The
design period may be 2 or 3 decades.
1) Arithmetical Increase Method:
Here we assume that the actual increase per decade is constant. Usually an average of
last three decades is taken. This method is suitable for old towns and for a rapidly
growing town it gives a lower figure.
2) Geometrical Increase Method:
Here we assume that the percentage increase from decade to decade is constant. An
average percentage increase in last three decades is taken and added to present
population. This is suitable for a rapidly growing city; otherwise it gives a high figure.
3) Incremental Increase Method:
To overcome the deficit of the first method, the incremental increase is also taken
into account. This is more suited for a town which is rapidly but steadily growing.
Population: (Present population) + (Average increase per decade)*n + (Incremental
increase per decade)*n
Design Period
• Population estimates
1. Arithmetic method
• Based on the hypothesis that the rate of increase is
constant
dp / dt Ka
P – population
t= time, year
Ka = arithmetic growth rate constant
pt p o k a t
• Arithmetic growth – linear growth pattern
• Problem 1: A mid size city recorded
populations of 113,000 and 129,000 in the
April 1980 and April 1990 census, respectively.
(A) Estimate the population in April 2000 by
arithmetic method
• 2. Geometric increase method
– Percentage increase in population from decade to
decade in constant
If the present population is P and the percentage
growth is ‘kg’, the population at the end of n decade
will be:
P = Po+Po (Kg/100) xn
• Problem 2: A mid size city recorded
populations of 113,000 and 129,000 in the
April 1980 and April 1990 census, respectively.
Estimate the population (A) in April 2000 and (B) in
April 2010 by geometric growth rate method
• Population estimates
– Exponential method
• Based on the hypothesis that the rate of increase is
proportional to population
dp
kp p
dt
P – population
t= time, year
Kp = geometric growth rate constant
ln p t ln p 2 k p t
OR
p t p 2 e kpt
Exponential Growth
• Problem 3
– A mid size city recorded populations of 113,000 and
129,000 in the April 1990 and April 1980 census,
respectively.
– Estimate the population in April 2000 and (B) April
2010 by exponential method
• Population estimates contd.
3. Declining growth method
This is a decreasing rate of increase on the basis
that the growth rate is a function of its population
deficit
dp
k d ( p s p)
dt
Ps – saturation population, assume value
t= time, year
Kd = declining growth rate constant
k dt
p t p o ( p s p 0 )(1 e )
• Problem 2
– A mid size city recorded populations of 113,000
and 129,000 in the April 1990 and April 1980
census, respectively.
– Estimate the population in April 2000 and (B) April
2010 by Declining growth method
Assume a saturation population of 200,000
• Population estimates contd.
4. Logistic curve method
- the logistic curve fitting method is used for
modeling population trends with an S- shape for
large population , or nation for long term
prediction E
D
C dP rP( p s p)
Point of
Population
inflexion dt Ps
B
A
time
• Logistic curve form (Pierre Verhulst)
Ps
P a bt
1 e McLean
2 p0 p1 p 2 p ( p0 p 2 )
2
Ps 1
p0 p 2 p12
( p s p0 )
a ln ‘n’ is the time
p0 interval between
the successive
1 p 0 ( p s p1 ) censuses
b ln
n p1 ( p s p 0 )
• Problem 5
• Following is the population of a city as noted from the census
department
Year Population
1990 35,000
2000 78,000
2010 1,15,000
Populatio 5.41 5.56 5.78 7.13 8.65 14.27 19.49 24.69 35.85 38.43 43.44
n (lakhs)