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With CPM and PERT

Lecturer: Engr. Hassan Arshad

Department of Mechanical Engineering,


University of Management & Technology, Sialkot
 What is a project?
 A project is defined by a set of activities.
 Each activity is defined by its duration (time to complete the activity) and its
predecessors (activities that must be completed before the activity can start).

 Examples:
 Any construction project
 A major event like a wedding
1. Conception: identify the need
2. Feasibility analysis or study: costs, benefits, and risks
3. Planning: how long, what to do?
4. Execution: doing the project
5. Termination: ending the project
Network Analysis
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Management & Technology, Sialkot
 Network analysis is one of the important tools for project management.

 Whether major or minor a project has to be completed in a definite time & at a


definite cost.

 The necessary information of any particular data can be represented as a project


network.

 These techniques are very useful for planning, scheduling and executing large-
time bound projects involving careful co-ordination of variety of complex and
interrelated activities
 Objectives

 Helpful in planning
 Inter-relationship of various activities
 Cost control
 Control on idle resources
 Avoiding delays, interruptions
 Applications

 Planning, scheduling, monitoring and control of large and complex projects.


 Construction of factories, highways, building, bridges, cinemas etc.
 Assembly line scheduling
 Installation of high tech machineries
 To make marketing strategies
 Activity :

 All projects may be viewed as composed of activities. It is the smallest unit of work
consuming both time & resources that project manager should schedule & control.
 An activity is represented by an arrow in network diagram

The head of the arrow shows sequence of


activities.
 Predecessor activity: Activities that must be completed immediately prior to the start
of another activity are called predecessor activities.

 Successor activity : Activities that cannot be started until one or more of other
activities are completed but immediately succeed them are called successor activities.

 Concurrent activities: Activities that can be accomplished together are known as


concurrent activities.

 Dummy activity: An activity which does not consume any resource but merely depicts
the dependence of one activity on other is called dummy activity. It is introduced in a
network when two or more parallel activities have the same start and finish nodes.
 The beginning & end of an activities are called as events .
 Events are represented by numbered circles called nodes.

i j

Event Event
start finish
 Merge event

 Burst event

 Merge & Burst Event


AOA – Activity on Arrow:
 Example:
Networks show each activity
as an arrow, and the nodes
represent the starting and
ending points
AON – Activity on Node:
Networks show each activity
as a node and arrows show
the immediate predecessor
activities
A complete network diagram should have
one start point & one finish point.
The flow of the diagram should be from
left to right.
Arrows should not be crossed unless it is
completely unavoidable.
Arrows should be kept straight & not
curved or bent.
Angle between arrows should as large as
possible.
Each activity must have a tail or head
event.. No two or more activities may have
same tail & head events.
Once the diagram is complete the nodes
should be numbered from left to right. It
should then be possible to address each
activity uniquely by its tail & head event.
 A project to manufacture a product is composed of the following activities:
 The promoter of a rock concert must perform the following tasks before the
concert can be held. Durations are in days.
Network Planning Techniques
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Management & Technology, Sialkot
NETWORK PLANNING TECHNIQUES

 Network analysis is the general name given to certain specific techniques which
can be used for the planning, management and control of projects.

 Commonly used techniques:


 Gannt Chart
 Critical Path Method (CPM)
 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
 Gantt Chart
 Horizontal bar chart
 Developed in 1917 by Henry L. Gantt,
 Provides a graphical illustration of a schedule that helps to plan, and track specific tasks in a
project.
 CPM
 Critical Path Method
 Developed by Du Pont & Remington Rand
 Developed for industrial projects for which activity times generally were known

 PERT
 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
 Developed by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile project
 Developed to handle uncertain activity times
Program Evaluation and Review
Critical Path Method
Technique

A deterministic model with well  A probability model with uncertainty


known activity times based upon the in activity duration . The duration of
past experience. each activity is computed from
multiple time estimates with a view to
take into account time uncertainty.
 It is used in Production management -
 It is used in Project management - for
for the jobs of repetitive in nature non-repetitive jobs (research and
(construction projects & business development work).
problems).

 PERT analysis does not usually


 CPM deals with cost of project consider costs.
schedules & minimization.
 PERT and CPM have been used to plan, schedule, and control a wide variety of
projects:
 R&D of new products and processes
 Construction of buildings and highways
 Maintenance of large and complex equipment
 Design and installation of new systems
 Project managers rely on PERT/CPM to help them answer questions such as:

 What is the total time to complete the project?

 What are the scheduled start and finish dates for each specific activity?

 Which activities are critical and must be completed exactly as scheduled to keep the
project on schedule?

 How long can noncritical activities be delayed (Slack) before they cause an increase in
the project completion time?
Critical Path Method
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Management & Technology, Sialkot
 Critical path analysis is used to determine project duration
 The critical path (CP) is the longest path through the network

 Critical Path Analysis Need to find the following for each activity:
 Earliest Start Time (ES)
 Earliest Finish Time (EF)
 Latest Start Time (LS)
 Latest Finish Time (LF)
 Critical activity:
 An activity that cannot be delayed, That is, a delay of Δ days on a critical activity will
increase the length of the project by Δ days.
 Critical activity should be monitored carefully to avoid delays.
 A critical activity has a total float of zero.
 Floats are slack times by which an activity can be delayed

 Critical path:
 A path from the start node to the finish node that consists entirely of critical nodes.
 A critical path is the longest path from start node to finish node.
 The length of the critical path is the minimum time required forproject completion.

 Critical event :
 The events with zero slack time are called as critical events.
 For the activities given in the table:
 Draw the AOA network diagram
 Find the critical activities
 Find the critical path
 Find the project completion time

Activity Description Predecessors Time (days)


A Initial Paperwork --- 3
B Build Body A 3
C Build Frame A 2
D Finish Body B 3
E Finish Frame C 7
F Final Paperwork B,C 3
G Mount Body to Frame D,E 6
H Install Skirt on Frame C 2
1. Determine the Early Start (ES) and Early finish (EF)for each activity (Forward Pass)
1. Activity with no predecessor activities (PA), Early start, ES = 0
2. For all activities, Early finish (EF) = Early Start + Duration (Time)
3. Activity with one predecessor activity (PA), Early Start = Early Finish of predecessor activity
4. Activity with more than one predecessor activity (PA),
Early start = Max ( Early finish of all predecessor activities)

2. Invert Predecessor activities (PA) to obtain successor activities (SA)

3. Determine the Late Finish (LF) and Late Start (LS) for each activity (Backward Pass)
1. Activity with no successor activities, Late Finish = Time of Completion (TOC)
2. For all the activities, Late Start = Late Finish – Duration (Time)
3. Activities with one Successor activity, Late Finish = Late Start of Successor activity
4. Activities with more than one successor activity,
Late Finish = Min (Late Start of all the successor activities)
4. Calculate Slack for each activity,
Slack = Late Finish – Early Finnish

5. Define Critical activities and Critical path

6. The project completion time equals the maximum of the activities’ earliest finish
times.
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Management & Technology, Sialkot
PROGRAM EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE

 The above CPM analysis assumes that activities durations are known with certainty.
This is not the case in many situations.

 PERT analysis considers probabilistic activity duration.

 PERT is designed for scheduling complex projects that involve many inter-related
tasks. It improves planning process because:
1. It provides a basis for normal time estimates & yet allows for some measure of
optimism or pessimism in estimating the completion dates.
2. It provides built in means for ongoing evaluation of the plan.
 Optimistic time ( t0 ) : is that time estimate of an activity when everything is
assumed to go as per plan. In other words it is the estimate of minimum possible
time which an activity takes in completion under ideal conditions.

 Most likely time ( tm ) : the time which the activity will take most frequently if
repeated number of times.

 Pessimistic time ( tp) : the unlikely but possible performance time if whatever
could go wrong , goes wrong in series. In other words it is the longest time the can
take.
 The times are combined statically to develop the expected time 𝑡𝑒 .

𝑡𝑜 + 4𝑡𝑚 + 𝑡𝑝
𝑡𝑒 =
6
 Standard deviation of the time of the time required to complete the project.

𝑡𝑝 − 𝑡𝑜 2
𝜎2 =( )
6
 Develop list of activities.
 A rough network for PERT is drawn.
 Events are numbered from left to right.
 Time estimates for each activity are obtained.
 Expected time for each activity is calculated.
 Using these expected times calculate earliest & latest finish & start times of
activities.
 Estimate the critical path.
 Using this estimate compute the probability of meeting a specified completion
date by using the standard normal equation

𝐷𝑢𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 − 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒


𝑍=
𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑎𝑡ℎ
 For the activities given in the table:
 Draw the network &find expected project completion time.
 What is the probability that it would be completed in 24 hours.

Immediate Optimistic time Most likely Pessimistic time


Activity
Precedd. (Hours) time (Hours) (Hours)
A ---- 4 6 8
B ---- 1 4.5 5
C A 3 3 3
D A 4 5 6
E A 0.5 1 1.5
F B,C 3 4 5
G B,C 1 1.5 5
H E,F 5 6 7
I E,F 2 5 8
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5
K G,I 3 5 7
 Network diagrams should have clear starting & ending points , which are
independent of each other which may not be possible in real life.

 Another limitation is that it assumes that manager should focus on critical activities.

 Resources will be available when needed for completion for an an activity is again
unreal.
 What di you mean by production planning and control? Discuss its various phases.
 What is MRP? Discuss the various inputs required for MRP. What are the outputs of
MRP?
 Explain the functions of Master Production Schedule.
 What is multilevel scheduling.