Estimation of Parameters
MATH30-6
Probability and Statistics
Objectives
At the end of the lesson, the students are expected to
• Explain the general concepts of estimating the
parameters of a population or a probability
distribution;
• Explain the important role of the normal distribution as
a sampling distribution; and
• Understand the central limit theorem.
Point Estimator
• A point estimate of some population parameter is a
single numerical value of a statistic . The statistic is
called the point estimator.
and variance
Central Limit Theorem
• If we are sampling from a population that has an
unknown probability distribution, sampling distribution
of the sample mean will still be approximately normal
with mean μ and variance σ2/n, if the sample size n is
large.
• In Inferential Statistics, n ≥ 40 (Montgomery and
Runger, 2011) is considered a large sample. Otherwise,
it is considered small.
• n ≥ 30 is considered a large sample (Walpole, et al,
2012)
Central Limit Theorem
If X1, X2, …, Xn is a random sample of size n taken from a
population (either finite or infinite) with mean μ and
variance σ2, and if is the sample mean, the limiting form
of the distribution of
(7-1)
as n → ∞, is the standard normal distribution.
Central Limit Theorem
Central Limit Theorem
Examples:
7-1/245 Resistors
An electronics company manufactures resistors that have
a mean resistance of 100 ohms and a standard deviation
of 10 ohms. The distribution of resistance is normal. Find
the probability that a random sample of n = 25 resistors
will have an average resistance of fewer than 95 ohms.
Central Limit Theorem
Central Limit Theorem
7-2/246 Suppose that a random variable X has a
continuous uniform distribution
(7-4)
Is approximately normal, if the conditions of the central
limit theorem apply. If the two populations are normal,
the sampling distribution of Z is exactly standard normal.
Difference in Sample Means
Examples:
7-3/247 Aircraft Engine Life The effective life of a
component used in a jet-turbine aircraft engine is a
random variable with mean 5000 hours and standard
deviation 40 hours. The distribution of effective life is
fairly close to a normal distribution. The engine
manufacturer introduces an improvement into the
manufacturing process for this component that increases
the mean life to 5050 hours and decreases the standard
deviation to 30 hours. Suppose that a random sample of
n1 = 16 components is selected from the “old” process
and a random sample of n2 = 25 components is selected
Difference in Sample Means
from the “improved” process. What is the probability that
the difference in the two sample means is at least 25
hours? Assume that the old and improved processes can
be regarded as independent populations.
Difference in Sample Means
7-13/248 A random sample of size n1 = 16 is selected from
a normal population with a mean of 75 and a standard
deviation of 8. A second random sample of size n2 = 9 is
taken from another normal population with mean 70 and
standard deviation 12. Let and be the two sample
means. Find:
(a) The probability that exceeds 4
(b) The probability that
Difference in Sample Means
7-14/248 A consumer electronics company is comparing
the brightness of two different types of picture tubes for
use in its television sets. Tube type A has mean brightness
of 100 and standard deviation of 16, while tube type B has
unknown mean brightness, but the standard deviation is
assumed to be identical to that for type A. A random
sample of n = 25 tubes of each type is selected, and is
computed. If μB equals or exceeds μA, the manufacturer
would like to adopt type B for use. The observed
difference is . What decision would you make, and why?
Summary
• The probability distribution of a statistic is called the
sampling distribution. For example, the sampling
distribution of the sample mean is the normal
distribution.
• The simplest form of the central limit theorem states
that the sum of n independently distributed random
variables tend to be normally distributed as n becomes
large. It is a necessary and sufficient condition that
none of the variances of the individual random
variables are large in comparison to their sum.
Summary
• Sampling Distribution of the Mean