Probability and

Statistics in
Engineering
Philip Bedient, Ph.D.
 Probability: Basic Ideas
 Terminology:
 Trial: each time you repeat an
experiment
 Outcome: result of an experiment
 Random experiment: one with random
outcomes (cannot be predicted exactly)
 Relative frequency: how many times a
specific outcome occurs within the
entire experiment.
   
 Statistics: Basic Ideas
 Statistics is the area of science that deals with
collection, organization, analysis, and
interpretation of data.
 It also deals with methods and techniques that
can be used to draw conclusions about the
characteristics of a large number of data points--
commonly called a population--
 By using a smaller subset of the entire data.

   
 For Example…
 You work in a cell phone factory and are asked to
remove cell phones at random off of the assembly
line and turn it on and off.
 Each time you remove a cell phone and turn it on
and off, you are conducting a random experiment.
 Each time you pick up a phone is a trial and the
result is called an outcome.
 If you check 200 phones, and you find 5 bad
phones, then
 relative frequency of failure = 5/200 = 0.025

   
 Statistics in Engineering
 Engineers apply physical
and chemical laws and
mathematics to design,
develop, test, and
supervise various
products and services.
 Engineers perform tests
to learn how things
behave under stress, and
at what point they might
fail.

   
 Statistics in Engineering
 As engineers perform experiments, they
collect data that can be used to explain
relationships better and to reveal
information about the quality of products
and services they provide.

   
 Frequency Distribution:
Scores for an engineering class are as follows: 58, 95, 80,
75, 68, 97, 60, 85, 75, 88, 90, 78, 62, 83, 73, 70, 70, 85,
65, 75, 53, 62, 56, 72, 79
To better assess the success of the class, we make a
frequency chart:

   
Now the information can be better analyzed.
For example, 3 students did poorly, and 3 did
exceptionally well. We know that 9 students
were in the average range of 70-79. We can also
show this data in a freq. histogram (PDF).
Divide each no. by 26

   
 Cumulative Frequency
 The data can be further organized by calculating the
cumulative frequency (CDF).
 The cumulative frequency shows the cumulative number
of students with scores up to and including those in the
given range. Usually we normalize the data - divide 26.

   
 Measures of Central Tendency &
Variation
 Systematic errors, also called fixed errors, are
errors associated with using an inaccurate
instrument.
 These errors can be detected and avoided by properly
calibrating instruments
 Random errors are generated by a number of
unpredictable variations in a given measurement
situation.
 Mechanical vibrations of instruments or variations in
line voltage friction or humidity could lead to random
fluctuations in observations.

   
 When analyzing data, the mean alone cannot signal
possible mistakes. There are a number of ways to define
the dispersion or spread of data.
 You can compute how much each number deviates from
the mean, add up all the deviations, and then take their
average as shown in the table below.

   
 As exemplified in Table 19.4, the sum of deviations from
the mean for any given sample is always zero. This can
be verified by considering the following:

n
1
x = ∑ x i di = (x i − x )
n i=1
 Where xi  represents data points, x is the average, n is the
number of data points, and d, represents the deviation
from the average.
€
   
 n n n n

∑ d = ∑ x − ∑ x  ∑ d
i i i = nx − nx = 0
i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1

Therefore the average of the deviations from the

mean of the data set cannot be used to measure
the spread of a€given data set.
Instead we calculate the average of the absolute
values of deviations. (This is shown in the third
column of table 19.4 in your textbook)
For group A the mean deviation is 290, and Group
B is 820. We can conclude that Group B is more
scattered than A.
   
 Variance
 Another way of measuring the data is by
calculating the variance.
 Instead of taking the absolute values of
each deviation, you can just square the
deviation and find the means.
 (n-1) makes estimate unbiased

∑ (x i − x ) 2

v= i=1

   
n −1
 Taking the square root of the variance
which results in the standard deviation.

∑ (x i − x ) 2

s= i=1
n −1
 The standard deviation can also provide
information about the relative spread of a
data
€ set.
   
 The mean for a grouped distribution is calculated
from:

x =
∑ (xf )
n
 Where
x = midpoints of a given range
f = €
frequency of occurrence of data in the range
n = f = total number of data points

   
The standard deviation for a grouped distribution is
calculated from:
s=
∑ (x − x 
) 2
f
n −1

   
 Normal Distribution
 We could use the probability distribution from the figures
below to predict what might happen in the future. (i.e.
next year’s students’ performance)

   
 Normal Distribution
 Any probability distribution with a bell-shaped
curve is called a normal distribution.
 The detailed shape of a normal distribution curve
is determined by its mean and standard
deviation values.

   
   
   
THE NORMAL CURVE zi = (xi ­ x) / s

 Using Table 19.11, approx. 68% of the data will

fall in the interval of ­s to s, one std deviation
 ~ 95% of the data falls between -2s to 2s, and
approx all of the data points lie between -3 s to 3s
 For a standard normal distribution, 68% of the
data fall in the interval of z = -1 to z = 1.

   
AREAS UNDER THE NORMAL CURVE
 z = -2 and z = 2 (two standard deviations below and
above the mean) each represent 0.4772 of the total area
under the curve.
 99.7% or almost all of the data points lie between -3s
and 3s.

   
Analysis of Two Histograms

Graph A is class distribution of numbers 1-10

Graph B is class distribution of semester credits

Data for A = 5.64 +/- 2.6 (much greater spread than B)

Data for B = 15.7 +/- 1.96 (smaller spread)
Skew of A = -0.16 and Skew B = 0.146
CV of A = 0.461 and CV of B = 0.125 (CV = SD/Mean)

Frequency A Frequency B

7 9
6 8
7
5 6
4 5
3 4
3
2 2
1 1
0 0

  2 3 4 5 6 7 8
 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20