Landslides ‘Geo’-Hazard

‘Natural’ Disasters & Mitigation

Geoffrey de Jong, Ph.D.

Focus Discussion Group

Natural Disaster Management
Cenderawasih Universitas – Jayapura
April 12, 2019
 OUTLINE
• Sentani March 2019 Landslides
• Terminology
• Mitigations
• Funding
• Discussion - Conclusion
Sentani March 2019 Landslides
 Sentani March 16-17 2019 Landslides

Kertosari debris slide

Doyo
debris slide?

debris flow

debris flow?

http://humanrightspapua.org/news/31-2019/419-devastating-flash-flood-and-landslides-hit-jayapura - Image from BADAN?

Sentani March 16-17 2019 Landslides – more West

Kertosai debris slide

soil slides
Doyo
debris flow
Kemiri Mbliling

Mbliling

Waena road

• Six landslide origins – from west to east:

– Kertosari
– Doyo
Doyo
– Kemiri
– Mbliling 2x
– Waena (road)
Modified image from BADAN
Image from Google Maps

HIS Village - before and after

Photo direction

debris flow

BEFORE Image from BADAN HIS school AFTER

Kimiri – before & after debris flow
Looking South

• Paleo-boulders in river bank sediment at present erosion level

• Possibly swept with the torrent
• Can explain the quantity of boulders in the present river deposit

Looking North

Photo direction
Sentani Landslide Triggers - Geology

Location of March 2019 landslides Monnier et.al 1999

Sentani Landslide Triggers - Geology
Looking NW

SW Landslide
locations NE

Monnier et.al 1999

apex
Landslide triggers – geology factors
rockfall
• apex loose ground due to thrust faults
debris slide
• ground already poorly cohesive slope
• thin soil profile / river bank profile with boulders
• steep upper slopes & apex alluvial fans
• sub-vertical cliffs at crest
• multiple joint systems in gneiss rocks
• bedding sub-parallel slope
• sub-angular/rounded boulders in flood plain debris flow
alluvial fan
 indicate weathered surfaces/joints Image from BADAN
 Sentani Landslide Triggers
Mbliling small landslide Sentani Landslide
affecting PDAM water basins disaster data Accuweather

4.5 4.2 5.6 4.34.5 5.3 4.6 4.0

Sentani Earthquakes YTD (March) data USGS

• Rainfall relative dry up to mid-March
• Torrential rainfall on the night of 0216/M5.3/8.8km
0204/M4.5/15.4km PACIFIC OCEAN
March 16 the main trigger for the
0307/M4.6/10km
Sentani landslides
0203/M4.3/35.1km
0203/M4.3/9.7km 0126/M4.2/10km
• Earthquakes mainly on a NE-SW trend
west of the Cyclops Mountain range 0317/M4.0/10km Jayapura
Sentani
0103/M4.5/10km
• Earthquakes - did it play a role ? - Sentani lake
possibly loosen soil material in NW-SE
PAPUA N I P
NN
thrust faults at apex-areas of Cyclops
Mountain range 10km
DG
O mmdd/Magnitude/depth O
Terminology
 Natural Hazard - Geohazard
What is a “Geohazard”?

• Forces / Processes in and on the Earth (involving lithosphere, hydrosphere &

atmosphere) that if interacting with human activities can cause loss of life and
property
• Geohazards can occur without warning (e.g. earthquakes)
• Geohazards can occur with warnings (e.g. satellite monitoring of cyclone tracks
or the presence of ground deformation at a volcano before an eruption)

GEO HUMAN
process activity
Erosion
Agriculture
Urbanization
Geo DISASTER
Plate tectonics Population increase Hazardous
Etc.
Etc. Condition

• Human factor is important :

– without human involvement there would be no hazard
– because of increased human activities, the geohazard studies are becoming
more important by the year
• therefore mitigation programs are important: reduction/prevention of hazard & disaster
 the Human Factor
Why is the human element critical? UN data

– Continues increasing in the Human Population

• Presently 7.7 billion people; predicted 9.8 billion
by 2050

– More people live in geo-hazard prone areas

• Coastal areas (flooding, tsunamis, hurricanes,
storms)
• Floodplains (flooding, landslides, earthquakes,
liquefaction)
• Mountain slopes (volcanic, landslides)

2000 AD 2019 Indo NOVA 2050 AD 2050 Indo

7 billion 270 million data 9.8 billion 366 million
 Urbanization in Geohazard prone areas
Rotterdam on floodplain Padang near the Mentawai Gap
along the Sunda Megathrust.

Bandung regency landslide feb 2018 Banda Aceh tsunami dec 2004

Cities vs earthquakes Sinabung volcanic eruption june 2018

Medan

Jayapura
Padang
Makassar
Jakarta
Surabaya
Yoga
 Natural Hazard types and locations
Indonesia has it all – except blizzards, dust storms

Earthquakes Cyclones

Landslides Droughts
(smoke/fires)

Floods Volcanoes
T
T

T Mud volcanoes
tsunami
 Types of Disasters
When humans interact with geohazards Mainly when humans wants monetary gains

Natural (Geo) Disasters Man-made Disasters

• Earthquakes • Air-plane crash
• Landslides / Avalanche • Ferry sinking
• Flooding • Bush / Forest fires
• Tsunamis • Oil spills
• Volcanoes • Epidemics
• Storms • War / Terrorism
• Cyclones / Hurricanes / Typhoons • Deforestation
• Drought • Pollution
• Blizzards • Global warming
• Etc. • Etc.
 Defining Disaster
• A disaster in a serious disruption in the functioning
of the community or a society causing wide spread Definitions adapted from: Landslide Studies in India-Y.P. SHARDA *
material, economic, social or environmental losses LHIM & EPE Division, Geological Survey of India, New Delhi

which exceed the ability of the affected society to

cope using its own resource.

• A disaster is a result from the combination of a

(geo)hazard, vulnerability and insufficient capacity
or measures to reduce the potential chances of
risk.

• A disaster happens when a (geo)hazard impacts

on the vulnerable population and causes damage,
casualties and disruption. 200m south of slide 7 – looking east
Image Edward Hehareuw / Reuter – Sentani March 2019
A major large landslide in the middle of the highlands
were nobody lives is just ‘great’ geological
phenomena and not considered a disaster.

Image Jakarta Globe – Sentani March 2019

 Scale of a Disaster
is dependent on Risk Pyramid
• Response / lead time
• Intensity of hazard
• Duration of the event
• Spatial extent
• Density of population & assets
• Time of occurrence
• Vulnerabilities existing in the Elements at Risk

Hazard intensity x Vulnerability = Disaster magnitude Risk pyramid

illustrating the three
independent factors
(hazard, vulnerability
Elements at Risk: & exposure/human
activity) Dwyer et al.
• Population (people, livestock)
2004
• Infrastructure (electricity, water, food supply)
• Property (houses, personal, crops)

Vulnerability:
• The extent to which a community, structure, service or geographic area is likely to be damaged or
disrupted by the impact of particular disaster hazard.
• Vulnerability is the tendency of things/elements to be damaged by a hazard.
 What must WE do?
WE Cannot
• Cannot stop Geological processes
• Cannot stop the human population increase

WE Can
• Can try reduce/mitigate geohazards – how…?
– by geohazard / geological and/or engineering studies
– by reviewing / improving / implementing planology standards
– by reviewing / improving / implementing disaster management plans
– by educating the population, awareness of risk areas

Where and how can we IMPROVE !

 Mitigation measures

Geohazard Studies

2nd priority mitigation steps

Management
Monitoring Mitigation Stabilizing Measures
Process

1st priority mitigation steps

Warning System
Education
 Management Mitigation Process
Management Process provides the methodology of controlling the geohazard risk

• WHAT OPTIONS and methods for treating the geohazard risk:

– Accept the risk - considered if the Geohazard risk is within acceptable or tolerable ranges.

– Avoid the risk - this would require abandonment of the project, seeking an alternative site
or form of development.

– Reduce the likelihood - stabilization measures:

• re-profiling the surface geometry
• groundwater drainage
• anchors, stabilizing structures
• protective structures etc.

– Monitoring and warning systems - to manage the geohazard risk on an interim or

permanent basis.
 Mitigation - Geohazard studies
Geohazards in Papua (most likely types)
2009-2019
USGS data
– Landslides / debris flows / debris slides
• Frequency: infrequent
• Magnitude: various sizes
• Disaster – if occur: can be devastating

– Earthquakes
• Frequency: common
• Magnitude: various magnitudes
• Disaster – if occur: probably less mortality; more economical

– Tsunami's 1674-2005
• Frequency: less frequent Tsunami heigh
• Magnitude: generally high energy in meters
• Disaster – if occur: large and devastating

•Frequency & Magnitude are

important factors to correlate
•Past is the key to the future
Geohazard studies - Types of Landslides

Landslide types are well described and studied in the literature

 Geohazard studies
Known Major Causes for Landslides
1. Geological weak material: weakness in the composition and structure
of rock or soils.

2. Erosion: of slope & toe due to cutting down of vegetation or construction

of roads and gardens might increase the vulnerability of the terrain to
slide down.

3. Rainfall: short intense rainfalls or moderate rainfalls lasting several days

have triggered abundant landslides.

4. Human Activities: excavation of slope & toe, loading of slope & toe,
deforestation/farming, irrigation, vibration/blasting can cause landslides.

5. Earthquakes: shaking has triggered landslides (rock falls, soil slides and
rock slides) from steep slopes (+15°) involving relatively thin or shallow
weak cohesive soils.

6. Volcanic eruption: deposition of loose volcanic ash on hillsides followed

by intense rainfalls and accelerated erosion frequently cause mud or
debris flows.
 Geohazard studies
Triggers for Landslides
ENSO: El Niño Southern Oscillation
ITCZ: Inter-tropical Convergence Zone
MJO: Madden-Julian Oscillation
PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation
QBO: Quasi-biennial Oscillation STUDY ON PNG LANDSLIDES by Robbins 2014

LOCAL STUDIES
NEEDED TO PREDICT
LANDSLIDE

Rock Mass
Slope angles
Joint/bedding patterns
Joint density
Joint weathering
Joint spacing
Shear plane strenght

Rock Parameters
Rock strength massive
Rock strength jointed
Rock hardness

Soil Parameters
Soil thickness
Soil moister content

Modified after
Robbins 2014
 Mitigation – Stabilizing Measures
Slit dam

1. MODIFICATION OF SLOPE GEOMETRY

• Removing material from the area driving the landslide
• Adding material to the area maintaining stability
• Reducing general slope angle

2. DRAINAGE
• Surface drains to divert water
• Trench drains
• Subhorizontal or subvertical boreholes
• Drainage tunnels, galleries or adits
• Vegetation planting (hydrological effect)

3. RETAINING STRUCTURES
• Retaining walls
• Caissons
• Retention nets for rock slope faces

4. INTERNAL SLOPE REINFORCEMENT

• Rock bolts / Soil nailing
• Anchors
• Grouting
• Vegetation planting (root strength mechanical effect)
 Mitigating Debris flows - Netting
To catch the sediment and reduce U cross barrier: For wider, U-shaped
the energy/force of the torrent channels.
Supported by two posts in the river bed
Suitable for span widths of up to ~25 m
Installation height of up to 6 m.

V cross barrier: For narrower V-cuttings.

Images from Suitable for a span width of up to ~15 m
Installation height of up to 6 m.
 Mitigating Debris flows – Check Dams
•Permanent barrier placed in flow path
•To catch the sediment and reduce the energy/force of the torrent
•Location more upstream were water flow energy is more manageable
•Solid check dams are not that common anymore, as they are easily get
destroyed, or get filled up quickly (re-modifying the slope)
•Single ore often in series (head–to–toe) Bottom infiltration screen

Rectangular slit dam

Solid check dam series

Grid dam

Grid dam

Slit dam
 Mitigation – Retention
(Hard) Rock Fall
• Rock Bolting – Rebars / Cables / Anchors / Split sets
• Grouting / Shotcrete
• Netting / Mesh / Drape-Catch system

Soil-ground Slides
• Retaining walls
• Netting
• Grouting
• Terraces
• Caissons
 Mitigation – Monitoring Systems
Why monitor
• Create hazard maps – predict areas of future potential
landslides
• Create risk maps– predict areas of future potential
landslides

Surface movements measurements

• Optical instruments survey (prisms), tape/electronic
distance measurements; SSR (in mining)
• Tiltmeters
• Differential global positioning system (ISAR)

Ground displacements measurements

• Inclinometers (probe inclinometer, in-place inclinometer)
• Extensometers (rod and wire extensometers, slope
extensometers)
• Geophones – ground sound extensometer
• Accelerometer
transmitter
Groundwater monitoring
• Open standpipe / pressure sensor piezometer
• Rain gage
• Soil moistur sensors piezometer
 Mitigation – Early Warning Systems
• For earthquakes (tsunamis?) - already in place ; sms KominfoBMKG
• Educate people living in risk areas about the potential geohazard (will
they accept the risk?); talks / brochures and presentations boards at
malls, churches, mosques

Early warning systems based on

• Use sound of creep of rock soil
• Use water saturation of soils – obtain thresh hold or your area
• Use rainfall measurements (SIPENDEL UGM) – obtain thresh hold
• Use ground/soil displacement measures – GPS (thresh hold
movement / period)

• PRESENTLY EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS ARE NOT FOOLPROOF

(fail proof)
• Public must be aware of this, but still react on alarms!

• However, landslides or potential failures can be predicted if proper

investigations are performed in time.
$$$ Funding $$$
 Funding - Essential
• Receiving funding requires diligence, good connections, a strong project candidate
(lobbyist) and a strong ‘Cost / Benefit Analysis’.

• Request for funding immediate post disaster – why: Central Government agencies
more willing to help.

• Develop an implementation strategy that includes:

– Steps and approvals needed for implementing mitigation projects
– Responsible parties for taking actions
– Costs and funding sources
– The timeframe of completion

• Consider benefit of internally funding the mitigation projects (e.g. mining companies):
– Gives control over carrying out a mitigation project
– Actions are not limited by grant requirements

• Incorporate hazard mitigation projects into various documents to build technical and
community support and budgeting:
– Create Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
– Projects become eligible for certain funding
 Cost
• The cost of preventing landslides is less than the cost of correcting them
• Massive slides that cost many times the cost of the original facility should be
avoided

MITIGATION COST DIRECT COST

• Remedial measures – cost? • Liability cost
• Monitoring field instruments – cost? • Loss of property
• Geohazard study – cost? • Repair infrastructure
• Warning systems – cost? VS • Relieve measures (shelter food etc)
• Relieve fund
INDIRECT COST
• Loss of business income

$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 Discussion
• Remedial measures needed like Check dams / netting in Sentani - cost benefit
• Can energy and volume be calculated (?)
• Can monitoring predict timing likelihood of landslide
• Can a warning system prevent / minimize disaster – rain gage & threshold
• Can population be educated to follow recommendations on hazard prone areas
• Move Sentani more southwards – more in the flood / swamp plain (?)

Conclusion
Social
• A disaster like this must not happen again – must at least try to prevent it
• Mitigation measures must be implemented – a must at Sentani

Geology
• Rainfall main trigger – seismicity possibly some ground preparation
• Various types of landslides – topography controlled – bedding sub parallel slope
• Mainly gneiss boulders in debris flow
• A % of present exposed boulders were probably paleo-boulders
 Thank You
Material Used

• Engineering Measures for Landslide Disaster Mitigation Mihail E. Popescu (Illinois Institute of
Technology, USA), Katsuo Sasahara (Kochi University, Japan)

• VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS AT NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE

OF TURKISH EARTHQUAKES; Istanbul University, Istanbul Medical Faculty, Department of
Public Health Yakut Irmak ÖZDEN, Ayse Emel ÖNAL, Sıdıka Tekeli YEŞİL

• HAZARD MITIGATION FOR NATURAL DISASTERS; A Starter Guide for Water and Wastewater
Utilities; EPA

• Natural Disaster Mitigation: the InterAcademy Panel on International Issues; A Scientific and
Practical Approach; Editors: Peng Bin, Zhu Haiyan, Han Peng 2009

• Landslide Studies in India-Y.P. SHARDA*LHIM & EPE Division, Geological Survey of India, New
Delhi

• Application of satellite and airborne technologies for the development of probabilistic rainfall
thresholds and susceptibility maps for landslides in Papua New Guinea; Robbins 2004

• The Landslide Handbook— A Guide to Understanding Landslides; USGS 2008