X
X0 = C / (c1-c2)
Example: Introducing a new (stabilizing)
bracket for an existing product
• Machine capacity available
• Required “infrastructure” for in-house production
– new tooling: $12,500
– Hiring and training an additional worker: $1,000
• Internal variable production (raw material + labor) cost:
$1.12 / unit
• Vendor-quoted price: $1.55 / unit
• Forecasted demand: 10,000 units/year for next 2 years
X0 = (12,500+1,000)/(1.55-1.12) = 31,395 > 20,000
Buy!
Evaluating Alternatives in Product Design
through Decision Trees
• Decision Trees: A mechanism for systematically pricing all
options / alternatives under consideration, while taking into
account various uncertainties underlying the considered
operational context.
(Example 3)
The Silicon Inc. Example
• Developing and marketing a new microprocessor
• Company Options:
– Purchase a sophisticated CAD system: $500,000 =>
manufacturing cost: $40/unit
– Hiring and training three new engineers: $375,000 =>
manufacturing cost $50/unit
– do nothing!
• Possible market responses:
– Favorable: 25,000 units sold at $100 each – 40%
chances
– Unfavorable: 8000 units sold at $100 each – 60%
chances
• Pick an option that maximizes the expected monetary
value (EMV)