9 decades to go”:
Coping with climate, water and weather-related
hazards and disasters in the 21st century
Michael H. Glantz
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado
www.ccb-boulder.org
December 8, 2012
Some facts
SCEP 1970
•Focused on global Man’s Impact on the Environment
atmospheric problems
1.Global problems do
not necessarily need Study of Critical Environmental
global solutions Problems (SCEP)
Society is a part
of the climate
system and not
separate from it.
Shanghai Harbor
1988 2004
“4 Laws of Ecology”
1. Everything is connected to
everything else. Citarum River, Indonesia
2. Everything has to go
somewhere or there is no
such place as away.
3. Everything is always
changing.
4. There is no such thing as a rekkerd.org/img/random/
free lunch. citarum_pollution.jpg
Could these also be the “4 Laws of Natural Disaster” in the 21st Century?
✔
A ‘weighty’ analogy:
something to keep in mind
You can’t go home again:
• “You can’t recover the past”
** December 3, 2012
C o u ld Drown
201 rms fornia
1, T Megasto rtions o f C a li
Eart he D s iv e P o
h i Mas The Tornadoes Of 2011: The Worst
Nat quakes saster Y
ural , e Natural Disaster In The United
Disa Tsunam ar for
ster is an States Since Hurricane Katrina
s dO
ther
Under the Weather: The disasters just keep
piling up bo o ks :
ve ls rise r ec ord
r a s sea le f o r the
in d ange warns ] y ear
s ta l cites ed, study A [ USA
O A A)
o a c t N
US c han expe 2 0 1 1(
t Under the Weather: The disasters just keep
faster
piling up
A “Teachable Moment”: Super Hurricane Sandy, October 2012
1. Step-like change in the US in views
about climate change and the need to
take action on adaptation
2.
3. A reaffirmation that all coastal cities are
vulnerable, rich and poor cities alike
Dynamite
fishing
in the
Philippines
Introducing Resilient Adaptation
(Luthar, 2003, CUP)
• to adjusting to foreseeable
adverse impacts
• of an uncertain changing
climate in the future.
What’s needed
for effective resilient adaptation
1. Early Warning
systems
2. Foreseeability
3. Expect surprises
4. Improvization
5. Precautionary
Principle
6. A focus on “Plan A”
Heightened value of
early warning systems
Foreseeability:
One form of warning
• Scientists rely on probabilities
• Use foreseeability
• Improvization
• I was “semi-surprised”
• “almost surprised”
• “hardly surprised”
• “a little surprised”
• “sort of surprised”
• “somewhat surprised”
FOCUS ON MITIGATION,
REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS AND
ROLL BACK CO2 LEVELS
Planet Earth is now Global Warming’s
“Ground zero”
(b)
(c)
(a)
• Mirrors in space
• Mimic volcanoes
• Brighten clouds
• Carbon sequestration
• Iron particles in ocean
• Global tree planting
• Go nuclear
• Go renewable energy
www.lightwatcher.com/ chemtrails/smoking_gun.html
While there are
many “Plans B” …
SMIC 1971
1. “We recognize a real
problem: global Inadvertent Climate Modification
temperature increase
produced by man’s Report of the Study of Man’s
injection of heat and CO2 Impact on Climate (SMIC)
… may lead to dramatic
reduction even elimination Edited by SMIC
of Arctic sea ice.”