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Paula Matuszek

CSC 8520, Fall, 2005

Introduction

The world is not a well-defined place.

There is uncertainty in the facts we know:

What’s the temperature? Imprecise measures

Is Bush a good president? Imprecise definitions

Where is the pit? Imprecise knowledge

There is uncertainty in our inferences

If I have a blistery, itchy rash and was gardening all

weekend I probably have poison ivy

People make successful decisions all the time

anyhow.

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 2

Sources of Uncertainty

Uncertain data

missing data, unreliable, ambiguous, imprecise representation,

inconsistent, subjective, derived from defaults, noisy…

Uncertain knowledge

Multiple causes lead to multiple effects

Incomplete knowledge of causality in the domain

Probabilistic/stochastic effects

Uncertain knowledge representation

restricted model of the real system

limited expressiveness of the representation mechanism

inference process

Derived result is formally correct, but wrong in the real world

New conclusions are not well-founded (eg, inductive reasoning)

Incomplete, default reasoning methods

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 3

Reasoning Under Uncertainty

So how do we do reasoning under uncertainty

and with inexact knowledge?

heuristics

ways to mimic heuristic knowledge processing methods

used by experts

empirical associations

experientialreasoning

based on limited observations

probabilities

objective (frequency counting)

subjective (human experience )

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 4

Decision making with uncertainty

Rational behavior:

For each possible action, identify the possible

outcomes

Compute the probability of each outcome

Compute the utility of each outcome

Compute the probability-weighted (expected) utility

over possible outcomes for each action

Select the action with the highest expected utility

(principle of Maximum Expected Utility)

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 5

Some Relevant Factors

expressiveness

can concepts used by humans be represented adequately?

can the confidence of experts in their decisions be expressed?

comprehensibility

representation of uncertainty

utilization in reasoning methods

correctness

probabilities

relevance ranking

long inference chains

computational complexity

feasibility of calculations for practical purposes

reproducibility

will observations deliver the same results when repeated?

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 6

Basics of Probability Theory

mathematical approach for processing uncertain

information

sample space set

X = {x1, x2, …, xn}

collection of all possible events

can be discrete or continuous

probability number P(xi): likelihood of an event xi to occur

non-negative value in [0,1]

total probability of the sample space is 1

for mutually exclusive events, the probability for at least one of

them is the sum of their individual probabilities

experimental probability

based on the frequency of events

subjective probability

based on expert assessment

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 7

Compound Probabilities

describes independent events

do not affect each other in any way

joint probability of two independent events A and B

P(A B) = P(A) * P (B)

union probability of two independent events A and

B

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

=P(A) + P(B) - P(A) * P (B)

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 8

Probability theory

Random variables Alarm, Burglary, Earthquake

Domain Boolean (like these), discrete,

continuous

Atomic event: complete

Alarm=True Burglary=True

specification of state

Earthquake=False

alarm burglary earthquake

Prior probability: degree

of belief without any other P(Burglary) = .1

evidence

Joint probability: matrix P(Alarm, Burglary) =

of combined probabilities alarm ¬alarm

of a set of variables

burglary .09 .01

¬burglary .1 .8

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 9

Probability theory (cont.)

Conditional probability: P(burglary | alarm) = .47

probability of effect given P(alarm | burglary) = .9

causes P(burglary | alarm) =

Computing conditional P(burglary alarm) / P(alarm)

probs: = .09 / .19 = .47

P(a | b) = P(a b) / P(b) P(burglary alarm) =

P(b): normalizing constant P(burglary | alarm) P(alarm) =

Product rule: .47 * .19 = .09

P(a b) = P(a | b) P(b) P(alarm) =

P(alarm burglary) +

Marginalizing:

P(alarm ¬burglary) =

P(B) = ΣaP(B, a)

.09+.1 = .19

P(B) = ΣaP(B | a) P(a)

(conditioning)

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 10

Independence

When two sets of propositions do not affect each others’

probabilities, we call them independent, and can easily compute

their joint and conditional probability:

Independent (A, B) if P(A B) = P(A) P(B), P(A | B) = P(A)

For example, {moon-phase, light-level} might be independent of

{burglary, alarm, earthquake}

Then again, it might not: Burglars might be more likely to

burglarize houses when there’s a new moon (and hence little

light)

But if we know the light level, the moon phase doesn’t affect

whether we are burglarized

Once we’re burglarized, light level doesn’t affect whether the

alarm goes off

We need a more complex notion of independence, and methods

for reasoning about these kinds of relationships

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 11

Exercise: Independence

p(smart smart smart

study

prep) study study study study

Queries:

Is smart independent of study?

Is prepared independent of study?

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 12

Conditional independence

Absolute independence:

A and B are independent if P(A B) = P(A) P(B);

equivalently, P(A) = P(A | B) and P(B) = P(B | A)

A and B are conditionally independent given C if

P(A B | C) = P(A | C) P(B | C)

P(A B C) = P(A | C) P(B | C) P(C)

independent given Light-Level

Conditional independence is weaker than absolute

independence, but still useful in decomposing the full

joint probability distribution

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 13

Exercise: Conditional independence

smart smart

p(smart

study prep) study study study study

Queries:

Is smart conditionally independent of

prepared, given study?

Is study conditionally independent of

prepared, given smart?

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 14

Conditional Probabilities

describes dependent events

affect each other in some way

conditional probability of event a given that event

B has already occurred

P(A|B) = P(A B) / P(B)

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 15

Bayesian Approaches

derive the probability of an event given another event

Often useful for diagnosis:

If X are (observed) effects and Y are (hidden) causes,

We may have a model for how causes lead to effects (P(X | Y))

We may also have prior beliefs (based on experience) about

the frequency of occurrence of effects (P(Y))

Which allows us to reason abductively from effects to causes

(P(Y | X)).

has gained importance recently due to advances in

efficiency

more computational power available

better methods

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 16

Bayes’ Rule for Single Event

single hypothesis H, single event E

P(H|E) = (P(E|H) * P(H)) / P(E)

or

P(H|E) = (P(E|H) * P(H) /

(P(E|H) * P(H) + P(E|H) * P(H) )

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 17

Bayes Example: Diagnosing Meningitis

Suppose we know that

Stiff neck is a symptom in 50% of meningitis cases

Meningitis (m) occurs in 1/50,000 patients

Stiff neck (s) occurs in 1/20 patients

Then

P(s|m) = 0.5, P(m) = 1/50000, P(s) = 1/20

P(m|s) = (P(s|m) P(m))/P(s)

= (0.5 x 1/50000) / 1/20 = .0002

So we expect that one in 5000 patients with a stiff

neck to have meningitis.

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 18

Advantages and Problems Of Bayesian

Reasoning

advantages

sound theoretical foundation

well-defined semantics for decision making

problems

requires large amounts of probability data

sufficient sample sizes

subjective evidence may not be reliable

independence of evidences assumption often not valid

relationship between hypothesis and evidence is reduced to a

number

explanations for the user difficult

high computational overhead

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 19

Some Issues with Probabilities

Often don't have the data

Just don't have enough observations

Data can't readily be reduced to numbers or frequencies.

inaccurate. In particular, often add up to >1.

Doesn't always match human reasoning well.

P(x) = 1 - P(-x). Having a stiff neck is strong (.9998!) evidence

that you don't have meningitis. True, but counterintuitive.

these problems.

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 20

Dempster-Shafer Theory

mathematical theory of evidence

Notations

Environment T: set of objects that are of interest

frame of discernment FD

power set of the set of possible elements

mass probability function m

assigns a value from [0,1] to every item in the frame of

discernment

mass probability m(A)

portion of the total mass probability that is assigned to

an element A of FD

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 21

D-S Underlying concept

The most basic problem with uncertainty is often with the

axiom that P(X) +P(not X) = 1

If the probability that you have poison ivy when you have a

rash is .3, this means that a rash is strongly suggestive (.7)

that you don’t have poison ivy.

True, in a sense, but neither intuitive nor helpful.

What you really mean is that the probability is .3 that you

have poison ivy and .7 that we don’t know yet what you

have.

So we initially assign all of the probability to the total set

of things you might have: the frame of discernment.

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 22

Belief and Certainty

belief Bel(A) in a subset A

sum of the mass probabilities of all the proper

subsets of A

likelihood that one of its members is the conclusion

plausibility Pls(A)

maximum belief of A, upper bound

1 – Bel(not A)

certainty Cer(A)

interval [Bel(A), Pls(A)]

expresses the range of belief

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 23

Example: Bel, Pls

Frame of Discernment:

Mentally retarded (MR), Learning disabled (LD), Not Eligible (NE)

{MR, LD, NE} m=0, Bel=1

m=.3, Bel=.6 m=.2, Bel = .4 m=.1, Bel=.4

m=.1, Bel=.1 m=.2, Bel=.2 m=.1, Bel=.1

{empty set}

m=0, Bel=0

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 24

Interpretation: Some Evidential

Intervals

Completely true: [1,1]

Completely false: [0,0]

Completely ignorant: [0,1]

Doubt -- disbelief in X: Dbt = Bel( not X)

Ignorance -- range of uncertainty: Igr =Pls-Bel

Tends to support: [Bel, 1] (0<Bel<1)

Tends to refute: [0, Pls] (0>Pls<1)

Tends to both support and refute: [Bel, Pls]

(0<Bel<Pls<1)

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 25

Advantages and Problems of

Dempster-Shafer

advantages

clear, rigorous foundation

ability to express confidence through intervals

certainty about certainty

problems

non-intuitive determination of mass probability

very high computational overhead

may produce counterintuitive results due to

normalization when probabilities are combined

Still hard to get numbers

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 26

Certainty Factors

shares some foundations with Dempster-Shafer

theory, but more practical

denotes the belief in a hypothesis H given that

some pieces of evidence are observed

no statements about the belief is no evidence is

present

in contrast to Bayes’ method

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 27

Belief and Disbelief

measure of belief

degree to which hypothesis H is supported by

evidence E

MB(H,E) = 1 IF P(H) =1

(P(H|E) - P(H)) / (1- P(H)) otherwise

measure of disbelief

degree to which doubt in hypothesis H is supported

by evidence E

MB(H,E) = 1 IF P(H) =0

(P(H) - P(H|E)) / P(H)) otherwise

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 28

Certainty Factor

certainty factor CF

ranges between -1 (denial of the hypothesis H) and

1 (confirmation of H)

CF = (MB - MD) / (1 - min (MD, MB))

combining antecedent evidence

use of premises with less than absolute confidence

E1 E2 = min(CF(H, E1), CF(H, E2))

E1 E2 = max(CF(H, E1), CF(H, E2))

E = CF(H, E)

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 29

Combining Certainty Factors

certainty factors that support the same conclusion

several rules can lead to the same conclusion

applied incrementally as new evidence becomes

available

Cfrev(CFold, CFnew) =

CFold + CFnew(1 - CFold) if both > 0

CFold + CFnew(1 + CFold) if both < 0

CFold + CFnew / (1 - min(|CFold|, |CFnew|)) if one

<0

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 30

Advantages of Certainty Factors

Advantages

simple implementation

reasonable modeling of human experts’ belief

expression of belief and disbelief

successful applications for certain problem

classes

evidence relatively easy to gather

no statistical base required

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 31

Problems of Certainty Factors

Problems

partially ad hoc approach

theoretical foundation through Dempster-Shafer

theory was developed later

combination of non-independent evidence

unsatisfactory

new knowledge may require changes in the certainty

factors of existing knowledge

certainty factors can become the opposite of

conditional probabilities for certain cases

not suitable for long inference chains

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 32

Fuzzy Logic

approach to a formal treatment of uncertainty

relies on quantifying and reasoning through

natural (or at least non-mathematical) language

Rejects the underlying concept of an excluded

middle: things have a degree of membership in a

concept or set

Are you tall?

Are you rich?

As long as we have a way to formally describe

degree of membership and a way to combine

degrees of memberships, we can reason.

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 33

Fuzzy Set

categorization of elements xi into a set S

described through a membership function m(s)

associates each element xi with a degree of

membership in S

possibility measure Poss{xS}

degree to which an individual element x is a potential

member in the fuzzy set S

combination of multiple premises

Poss(A B) = min(Poss(A),Poss(B))

Poss(A B) = max(Poss(A),Poss(B))

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 34

Fuzzy Set Example

membership

short medium tall

1

0.5

height

0 (cm)

0 50 100 150

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

200

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 250 35

Fuzzy vs. Crisp Set

membership

short medium tall

1

0.5

height

0 (cm)

0 50 100 150

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

200

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 250 36

Fuzzy Reasoning

In order to implement a fuzzy reasoning system

you need

For each variable, a defined set of values for

membership

Can be numeric (1 to 10)

Can be linguistic

really no, no, maybe, yes, really yes

tiny, small, medium, large, gigantic

good, okay, bad

And you need a set of rules for combining them

Good and bad = okay.

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 37

Fuzzy Inference Methods

Lots of ways to combine evidence across rules

Poss(B|A) = min(1, (1 - Poss(A)+ Poss(B)))

implication according to Max-Min inference

also Max-Product inference and other rules

formal foundation through Lukasiewicz logic

extension of binary logic to infinite-valued logic

Can be enumerated or calculated.

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 38

Some Additional Fuzzy Concepts

Support set: all elements with membership > 0

Alpha-cut set: all elements with membership

greater than alpha

Height: maximum grade of membership

Normalized: height = 1

Some typical domains

Control (subways, camera focus)

Pattern Recognition (OCR, video stabilization)

Inference (diagnosis, planning, NLP)

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 39

Advantages and Problems of Fuzzy

Logic

advantages

general theory of uncertainty

wide applicability, many practical applications

natural use of vague and imprecise concepts

helpful for commonsense reasoning, explanation

problems

membership functions can be difficult to find

multiple ways for combining evidence

problems with long inference chains

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 40

Uncertainty: Conclusions

In AI we must often represent and reason about uncertain

information

This is no different from what people do all the time!

There are multiple approaches to handling uncertainty.

Probabilistic methods are most rigorous but often hard to

apply; Bayesian reasoning and Dempster-Shafer extend it

to handle problems of independence and ignorance of data

Fuzzy logic provides an alternate approach which better

supports ill-defined or non-numeric domains.

Empirically, it is often the case that the main need is some

way of expressing "maybe". Any system which provides for

at least a three-valued logic tends to yield the same

decisions.

Artificial Intellignce, Fall 2005, Paula Matuszek

Based in part on www.csc.calpoly.edu/~fkurfess/Courses/CSC-481/W02/Slides/Uncertainty.ppt and www.cs.umbc.edu/courses/graduate/671/fall05/slides/c18_prob.ppt 41

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