Climate Change: Our

Globally Changing
Climate
ESYS103/MAE124
APRIL 8 TH , 2019
 What we are reading:
National Climate Assessment Report

Our readings this week will come from the 4th National Climate Assessment Report,
published in 2017 and 2018.
• Vol. I is the Climate Science Special Report (2017). This is what we are reading.
• Vol. II is report on impacts risks and adaption in the US
National Climate Assessment
Reports
“The National Climate Assessment summarizes the
impacts of climate change on the United States,
now and in the future.”
“A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-
member Federal Advisory Committee produced the
report, which was extensively reviewed by the
public and experts, including federal agencies and a
panel of the National Academy of Sciences.”
Sources used in this report
“The findings in this report are based on a large body of
scientific, peer-reviewed research, as well as a number of
other publicly available sources, including well-established
and carefully evaluated observational and modeling
datasets. “
“The team of authors carefully reviewed these sources to
ensure a reliable assessment of the state of scientific
understanding. Each source of information was determined
to meet the four parts of the quality assurance guidance
provided to authors (following the approach from NCA3): 1)
utility, 2) transparency and traceability, 3) objectivity, and 4)
integrity and security. ”
NCA4 Climate Science
main summary findings
“Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is
extremely likely that human influence, especially
emissions of greenhouse gases, has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the
mid-20th century. “

“For the warming over the last century, there is no

convincing alternative explanation supported by
the extent of the observational evidence.”
 http://www.ipcc.ch/

Working Group II
Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability

Working Group III

Working Group I Mitigation of Climate Change
The Physical Science Basis
Discussion Prompt
The findings reported by the NCA4 state that that human
influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from
the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming,
and understanding of the climate system.

But, if this is so certain in the scientific community, even

within the national US scientific community, and given that
it is clearly an issue of immediate concern, why isn’t this the
same message that we get from many of our political
leaders in the USA?
Clicker questions
THESE ARE SOME OF THE MAIN POINTS FROM THE
READING
#1 According to the NCA4 climate
change report, global climate is changing
more rapidly now than natural climate
variability in Earth’s history.
A. True
B. False
C. I don’t know
 Which of the following data sets give
evidence that the earth is warming?

A. Surface thermometer data.

B. Ocean heat measurements.
C. Amounts of snow and ice on the earth.
D. Sea-level measurements.
E. All of the above.
According to the NCA4 Climate Science Report,
without major reductions in these emissions, the
increase in annual average global temperatures
relative to preindustrial times ____________ by the
end of this century :
A. will be limited to 1.5° C
B. will reach 2.0° C
C. could reach 5°C or more.
D. will stabilize at our current warming
E. could reach 10 °C or more

Note: C is probably the best answer, and B is also correct.

Which of the following statements best summarizes
global sea level rise over the period of 1901 to 2010
as reported in the NCA4 Climate Science Report?:
A. Mean sea-level has not yet risen, but is expected to rise
this century.
B. Over the period since 1880, global mean sea level rose
by 20-23 milliimeters.
C. Over the period since 1880, global mean sea level rose
by 20-23 meters.
D. Over the period since 1880, global mean sea level rose
by 0.20 meters and the rate of sea level rise is expected
to decrease.
E. Over the period since 1880, global mean sea level rose
by 0.20 meters and the rate of sea level rise is expected
to increase.
Temperatures are warming
Fig. 1.1 and 1.2 from the NCA4. Global
annual average temperatures (as
measured over both land and oceans)
for 1880–2016 relative to the reference
period of 1901–1960; red bars indicate
temperatures above the average over
1901–1960, and blue bars indicate
temperatures below the average.

A temperature anomaly is defined as

the difference between the
temperature and a reference
temperature, where the reference
temperature is usually the average
temperature over a previous multi-
decadal period.
Average warming displayed
here is 1.8°F, or 1.0°C.
 Temperatures are rising almost everywhere,
and temperature are rising most in high N
latitudes.

Fig. 1.3 Surface temperature change (in °F) for the period 1986–2015 relative to
1901–1960 from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information’s (NCEI)
surface temperature product.
Precipitation patterns are changing

Fig. 1.7 from the NCA4. Surface annually averaged precipitation change (in
inches) for the period 1986–2015 relative to 1901–1960.
“wet areas are getting wetter and dry
areas are getting drier”

Fig. 1.7 from the NCA4. Surface annually averaged precipitation change (in
inches) for the period 1986–2015 relative to 1901–1960.
 Extreme weather and climate
events are increasing
The frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heavy precipitation
events are increasing in most continental regions of the world (very high
confidence).
The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events are
virtually certain to increase in the future as global temperature
increases (high confidence). Extreme precipitation events will very likely
continue to increase in frequency and intensity throughout most of the
world (high confidence).
Observed and projected trends for some other types of extreme events,
such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more variable
regional characteristics.

NCA4 Climate Science, Chapter 1, Key finding #2

Snow and ice are melting

NCA climate Science, 2017. Ch. 1,

Fig. 1.1
 Sea level is rising

Data from 1880–2014 relative to 1996–2005, NC4 climate

sciences, 2017. Chapter 1, from Fig. 1.1.

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (20–23 cm) since 1880, with a rise
rate of approximately 0.5–0.6 inches/decade from 1901 to1990 (about 12–15
mm/decade). The rate is increasing and expected to continue to increase. (NCA4
climate science, 2017)