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Independent Study V

March-April 2019

1
Curing the addiction to growth
By Marshall Fisher, Vishal Gaur & Herb Kleinberger

Harvard Business Review Jan -Feb 2017


Retail Industry in USA
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Companies in all industries eventually see their revenue
growth slow. Retailers are no exception
01
Fickle consumers, intense competition, changing
markets, and the rapid encroachment of online retailing
02 all combine to exert pressure on the top line?

The authors examined the financial data of 37 U.S.


03 retailers with recent sales of at least $1 billion whose
top-line annual growth rate had slowed to single digit.

Some of these retailers had seen their bottom lines fall


04 even faster than their top lines.

05 What should a retailer do when growth slows? Is it


doomed, or is there a way to prosper when its business
matures?
3
Understanding the Business Lifecycle
Maturity is reached when the
market demand for the
industry’s outputs is becoming
The retail life cycle follows a classic S-curve. saturated. The decline stage occurs when
demand for an industry’s
products and services
In a growth industry, first-time
decreases and often begins
demand is expanding rapidly
when consumers begin to turn
as many new customers enter
to more convenient, safer, or
the market. p.
higher quality offerings from
firms in substitute industries.
SALES

Demand for the industry’s


outputs is low at this time
because product and/or
service awareness is still
developing..

INTRODUCTION GROWTH MATURITY DECLINE


TIME 4
Understanding Total • Total shareholder return is the profit generated by a
Shareholder Returns combination of the change in the share price over the
measurement period, plus any dividends paid by the
company in the interim.
• This measure is used by investors to determine the
gains generated by their share holdings. The formula
for this total shareholder return (on an annual basis)
is:
• Total Shareholder Return = (Ending stock price -
Beginning stock price) + Sum of all dividends
received during the measurement period
• (TSR, includes stock returns, dividends, and stock
splits)
WHAT IS RETURN ON • Return on invested capital is a calculation used to
CAPITAL INVESTED(ROIC)? assess a company's efficiency at allocating the
capital under its control to profitable investments.
• ROIC is the amount of return a company makes
above the average cost it pays for its debt and equity
capital.
• The return on invested capital can be used as a
benchmark to calculate the value of other companies
• A company is creating value if its ROIC exceeds 2%
and destroying value if less than 2%.

6
Track Right Metrics
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Sample Sample Sample
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Wal-Mart Roadmap
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01
Introduction
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Independent study V
March-April 2019

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Business
Model
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Strategy

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KPI
% 63 %
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71% 47%

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Market Share
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Financials
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Walmart
Wal-Mart followed just this pattern

25% 50% 75%

Introduction Growth Maturity


By January 31, 1968, its By fiscal 1988, it had Data shows that by 2006
24 stores generated 1,198 stores, sales of new stores had begun to
$12.6 million in sales $16 billion, and net cannibalize the sales of
and $482,000 in net income of $627.6 million. existing stores, and Wal-
profit Mart was entering the
maturity stage. 17
Our Services
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Roadmap
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By January 31,
1968, its 24
stores generated
$12.6 million in
sales and
$482,000 in net
profit

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Our Process
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4-Year Timeline
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2018 2019 2020 2021


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Global Reach
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Contact us
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