Earthquakes

• Causes - tectonics and faults

• Magnitude - energy and intensity
• Earthquake geography
• Seismic hazards - shaking, etc.
• Recurrence - frequency and regularity
• Prediction?
• Mitigation and preparedness
Causes: accumulated strain
leads to fault rupture
- the elastic rebound model
North American tectonic regimes
(much simplified)
Styles of faulting
 Causes: fault movement releases energy as
seismic waves radiating from rupture

Seismic waves
 Seismic wave forms
S wave

P wave

L wave
(Rayleigh wave)

L wave
(Love wave)
 Earthquake magnitude:
scales based on seismograms

• ML=local (e.g. Richter scale) - based on amplitude

of waves with 1s period within 600 km of
epicentre.
• Mb=body-wave (similar to above)
• Ms=surface wave (wave periods of 20s measured
anywhere on globe
• Mo=seismic moment
• Mw= moment magnitude
 The Richter scale
Steps:
1. Measure the interval (in seconds) between
the arrival of the first P and S waves.
2. Measure the amplitude of the largest S
waves.
3. Use nomogram to estimate distance from
earthquake (S-P interval) and magnitude
(join points on S-P interval scale and S
amplitude scale).
4. Use seismograms from at least three
geographic locations to locate epicentre
by triangulation.
The Richter scale 2
nomogram
1
Steps

Nomogram
 Locating the epicentre:
X, Y and Z are seismograph stations

280 km

220 km
Y
X

epicentre Z

150 km
 Earthquake magnitude:
scales based on rupture dimensions
(equivalent to energy released )

• Mo= seismic moment.

= m * A * d, where m is the shear modulus
of rock; A is the rupture area, and d is
displacement

• Mw= moment magnitude.

= 2/3 * log Mo - 10.7

N.B. moment scales do not saturate

Saturation
of non-
moment
scales
 Earthquake magnitude:
scales based on shaking intensity
e.g. Mercalli, Rossi-Forel, San
Francisco scales

MMI (=Modified Mercalli Index)

I Not felt
…..

VI Felt by all. Many frightened and

run outdoors. Persons walk unsteadily.
Pictures fall off walls. Furniture
moved, trees shaken visibly.
….

XII Damage nearly total. Objects

thrown into air.

Sichuan earthquake, May 12, 2008

Earthquake geography

Source: GSHAP, Switzerland

Seismic hazard: North & Central America
 Seismic hazards
• Locating faults
• Estimating recurrence: history and
geology
• Measuring relative motions and
crustal deformation
• Learning from analogies
• Assessing probabilities
 Locating faults:
Seattle Fault (LIDAR image)
Prediction:
where will Berkeley

the next Oakland

earthquake
in the Bay San Francisco

Area occur?
San Jose

Santa Cruz
 Lawrence
Livermore
The Hayward
fault runs
through UC
Berkeley
campus UC Berkeley
(US $1 billion
seismic upgrade
program)
Recurrence - historical records

San Francisco
City Hall, 1906
Prediction:
current crustal
deformation
 Prediction: crustal velocity (mm/yr)
from repeated GPS measurements at permanent
stations

Why are all stations

moving to NW?
Learning from analogues
(Turkey - California)
N.B. A probability of
70% over 30 years is
equivalent to a daily
probability of
1 : 15 000

The Bay Area:

earthquake
probabilities
(AD2000-
2030)
 Probabilities, yes!
but prediction, no!
• 1996 - Earthquake prediction group of Japanese
Seismological Survey voluntarily disbands (after
Kobe)

• 2000 - British researcher argues that prediction

of main shock impossible at present; immediate
goal should be prediction of aftershock location
and magnitude
 Individual seismic hazards
• Shaking = accelerated ground motion
• Liquefaction = failure of waterlogged sandy
substrates
• Landslides, dam failures, etc.
• Tsunamis = seismic sea waves
• Fire, etc.
 Predictions of shaking intensity on
San Andreas fault (long segment) in the Bay Area
Shaking and liquefaction: the importance of
surficial geology
Building collapse as a result of soil
liquefaction, Niigata, Japan, 1964
Liquefaction and the urban fire hazard:
San Francisco, 1906

2-6 m of lateral City lost 90% of water

displacement in old supply; fires raged out
marsh soils -> 300 of control
breaks in water lines
Photos: Archives, Museum of San Francisco
Ground motion, structural damage and basin
morphology: Mexico City, 1985
Damage

heavy light heavy

body\surface surface/body

ridge
basin basin

periodic random periodic

 Bedrock
topography
underlying
Fraser delta
 Earthquakes
don’t kill;
buildings do! QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

Building harmonics
Buildings at high risk
•URM = unreinforced
masonry;
•open lower storeys;
Collapsed school building, Ying Xiu,
•poor ties to Sichuan, China (May 12, 2008);
foundations >10,000 children died in this earthquake
and between storeys;
•lack of cross-bracing;
•poor quality materials.
Pre-earthquake The response of
mud-brick
buildings to
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
ground shaking
The 2 000-yr old
citadel in Bam, Iran

QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

Post-earthquake
(Dec. 2003)
 Muzaffarabad,
Pakistan
“Much of the building is (October 8, 2005
done by people putting up M 7.7; depth 10km)
their own houses. But they
cannot afford proper
materials and do not use
skilled labour. There are
many small kilns producing
bricks but because of
demand these are not fired
for the 28 days needed to
make them strong.”
Mohsen Aboutorabi,
Professor of Architecture,
(BBC News, 2003/12/30,
discussing the Bam earthquake in
which ~40,000 died)
 << << wall collapse, Pakistan, 2005

Complete collapse of multi-storey

apartment, Pakistan, 2005 >>>>

QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

<<<< pancaking of ‘soft-storey’

buildings near Algiers (May, 2003);
 Bridge collapse
Loma Prieta earthquake, CA (1989)
 Preparedness (examples)
Buildings - site selection, design to code,
retrofit, upgrade codes;
Strengthen bridges, dams, pipelines;
Earthquake drills - houses, schools,
search & rescue;
Emergency planning - survival kits,
evacuation routes, fire prevention, utility
failures, communication alternatives,
education
 Preparedness: Modifying the building code in
the western US

1969 1976 1988 1996

UBC = Uniform Building Code

Public education?
 Post-earthquake
adjustments

Compare:
 abandonment of Antigua Guatemala
(mid-C18th) vs.
 reconstruction of Lisbon (post-1755),
San Francisco (post-1906), Kobe (post-
1995).
Cascadia: megaearthquakes
at the plate boundary

Mw = 9.2?
 9.2 (1964)

9.3
(2005)
 Earthquake sequences,
Nankai Trough and Cascadia

or here?

S U W W? Y
 The scientists
Kenji Satake Alan Nelson Brian Atwater
Y

U
W

Buried marsh soils as evidence for

interplate earthquakes at Cascadia