Observed Trends and Projected

Climate Change in the Philippines

Prepared by:
Impact Assessment and Application Section, Climatology and
Agrometeorology Division, DOST-PAGASA
Phone: (632) 434-5882
Email: mqvillafuerte@gmail.com

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Outline

• Understanding the difference: weather vs. climate

• Weather/climate information at different timescales

• RCPs-based climate projections

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Distinguishing the difference

Weather
• Is a specific meteorological
event or condition that
happens over a period of
hours or days.
Climate
• The average weather
conditions over a long
period of time (typically 30
years).

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Weather and climate information being provided
by PAGASA

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The SW and NE monsoons in the Philippines

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 El Niño La Niña

Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov

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El Niño affects several regions across the globe

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 El Niño triggers drought occurrences in the
Philippines

Source: Villafuerte et al., In Prep.

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 How about climate change, is that
really happening?

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Climate change defined:

• “Any change in climate over time, whether due to

natural variability or as a result of human activity” –
IPCC (2007).

• “Refers to a change of climate that is attributed

directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods” – UNFCCC

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Global warming: Indicative of anthropogenic
climate change

Image source: NASA

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Globally observed changes in physical,
biological, human and managed systems

Source: IPCC-AR5
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Declining Arctic sea ice extent

Source: US-EPA

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 Observed climate trends in the Philippines:
Rising air temperature

Over the past 65 years (1951-2015),

a 0.68°C increase in annual mean
temperature has been observed

0.24°C annual maximum 0.99°C annual minimum

temperature increase temperature increase

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Wetting/drying tendency of annual total rainfall in the
Philippines
• Parts of central and
northern Luzon

• Parts of eastern Visayas

• Northeastern and
southwestern sections
Mindanao

• Northern sections of Luzon

• Parts of western Visayas

• Central and western

sections Mindanao

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Increasing and decreasing trends in seasonal rainfall

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 Increasing number of hot days

Source: Cinco et al., 2014

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Increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events
(1951–2010)

Source: Villafuerte et al., 2014

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Slightly increasing number of intense TCs (maximum
sustained winds >170kph)

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 Will those changes continue in the
future?

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 Source: NOAA

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Modeling the climate system

mid-1970s mid-1980s early-1990s Late 1990s

Early 2000s Late 2000s Present

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Understanding the difference

Weather forecast Climate projection

• The state of the atmosphere • A likelihood of something to
(or the weather situation) at happen in climate several
a particular location over a decades or centuries in the
short period of time future

• Highly dependent on the • Conditional climate

initial state of the expectations based on
atmosphere and the upper scenarios (e.g., increase in
ocean green house gases)

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Scenarios were based on GHG emissions

Source: IPCC, 2007

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Climate information are being updated

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Source:PAGASA
Forest, 2015, ICTP
Human influence on global warming

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Global_warming

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GCMs, in general, were provided in coarse
resolutions

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Providing localized climate projection

Source: Univ. of Toronto

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 Source: Villafuerte et al., In Prep.

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Annual mean temperature anomaly in the Philippines with
respect to (1971-2000) – RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

SUMMARY of CHANGES
Increase in annual mean temperature
shows a large amount of warming by Scenario Mid-21st End of the 21st
century century
the end of the century; with all
models agreeing on warming for both RCP4.5 +0.9 to +1.9 +1.3 to +2.5
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 RCP8.5 +1.2 to +2.30 +2.5 to +4.1

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Projected Change in Annual mean temperature in the Mid 21st Century in the
Philippines relative to (1971-2000)

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Projected changes in seasonal total rainfall by the Mid-21st Century
(2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Wettest
Possible

Most Likely

Driest
Possible

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Projected changes in seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall by the Mid-21 st
Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario

Wettest
Possible

Most Likely

Driest
Possible

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Projected changes in seasonal maximum 5-day rainfall by the Mid-21 st
Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario

Wettest
Possible

Most Likely

Driest
Possible

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Projected future change in tropical cyclones to
affect the Philippines

Source: Daron et al. 2016, DFID project, UK- Met-office report

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 So, what can we do now to make our
families, communities, businesses, and
our whole locality resilient to climate
variability and change?

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Projected changes in seasonal rainfall over Bulacan by the Mid-21st
Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario

Wettest
Possible

Most Likely

Driest
Possible

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 Thank you! 
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