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Analyze Phase

Hypothesis Testing Normal Data


Part 1

M# 327
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1

Welcome to Analyze

“X” Sifting

Inferential Statistics

Intro to Hypothesis Testing Sample Size

Hypothesis Testing ND P1 Testing Means

Analyzing Results
Hypothesis Testing ND P2

Hypothesis Testing NND

Hypothesis Testing Attribute Data

Wrap Up & Action Items

M# 328
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 2 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Test of Means (t Tests)

Test of Means (t Tests) are used:


– To compare a Mean against a target.
• i.e.; The team made improvements and wants to compare
the Mean against a target to see if they met the target.

– To compare Means from two different samples.


• i.e.; Machine one to machine two.
• i.e.; Supplier one quality to supplier two quality.

– To compare paired data.


• Comparing the same part before and after a given process.

They don’t look the


same to me!
M# 329
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 3 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test

A 1-Sample t test is used to compare an expected population


Mean to a target.

Target μsample

MINITABTM performs a 1-Sample t test or t confidence interval for the Mean.


Use 1-Sample t to compute a confidence interval and perform a Hypothesis
Test of the Mean when the population Standard Deviation, σ, is unknown.*
For a one or two-tailed 1-Sample t:
– H0: μsample = μtarget If P-value > α, fail to reject H0
– Ha: μsample ≠, <, > μtarget If P-value < α, reject H0

*Use the 1-sample Z test when the population Standard Deviation, σ, is known
M# 329
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 4 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Sample Size

Target
Population

Can not tell the


Sample difference X X
X
XX
n=2 between the sample X
X X
X
and the target. X X X X X

Sample Can tell the difference X Dist. of many X,


between the sample X each with n=2
n = 30 XX
and the target.
Dist. of many X, X X
each with n=30X X X

S
SE Mean 
n
M# 329
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 5 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Sample Size

Stat > Power and Sample Size > 1-Sample t…

Three fields must be filled in


and one left blank. and
Minitab will calculate the
missing value.

M# 330
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 6 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Sample Size

Power and Sample Size


1-Sample t Test

Results:

Sample
Size Power Difference
10 0.9 1.15456
15 0.9 0.90087
20 0.9 0.76446
25 0.9 0.67590
30 0.9 0.61245 This shows how your ability to
35 0.9 0.56408 detect small differences
40 0.9 0.52564 increases as your
sample size increases.
M# 330
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 7 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example

1. Practical Problem:
• We are considering changing suppliers for a part that we
currently purchase from a supplier that charges us a premium for
the hardening process.
• The proposed new supplier has provided us with a sample of
their product. They have stated that they can maintain a given
characteristic of 5 on their product.
• We want to test the samples and determine if their claim is
accurate.
2. Statistical Problem:
H0: μN.S. = 5
Ha: μN.S. ≠ 5
3. Set Risk Levels and choose test:
1-Sample t Test (population Standard Deviation unknown,
comparing a sample mean to a target).
α = 0.05 β = 0.10
M# 331
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 8 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example (Cont.)

4. Determine Sample Size:


• Open the MINITABTM
worksheet: “Exh_Stat.MTW”.
• Use the C1 column: Values
– In this case, the new
supplier sent 9 samples
for evaluation.
– How much of a difference
can be detected with this
sample?

M# 331
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 9 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example (Cont)

For Standard deviation, enter either:


This means we will be
a) The historical population σ (if known), or
b) Enter the s of the sample, found by able to detect a difference
Stat>Basic Statistics>Display Descriptive of 0.3 with the current s of
Statistics>C1 Values 0.247, sample size = 9,
and Power (1-β) = 0.9

MINITABTM Session Window output

M# 332
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 10 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example (Cont) : Follow the Road Map

5. Assess Normality and conduct the test


Stat > Basic Statistics > Normality test…

Probability Plot of Values


Normal
99
Mean 4.789
StDev 0.2472
95 N 9
AD 0.327
90
P-Value 0.442
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20
Are the data in the
10
values column
Normal?
4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4
If not, don’t use the
Values 1-Sample t test!

M# 332
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 11 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example (Cont.)

Click “Graphs”
• Select all 3
Stat > Basic Statistics > 1-Sample t…

Click “Options…”
• Confidence Level = 1-α,
for this example that’s 95
• Alternative = “not equal”

M# 333
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 12 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example (Cont)

Histogram of Values

Histogram of Values
(with Ho and 95% t-confidence interval for the mean)

2.0

1.5
Frequency

1.0

0.5

0.0 _
X
Ho

4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1


Values

Note our target Mean (represented by red H0) is outside our


population confidence boundaries which tells that there is
significant difference between population and target Mean.
M# 333
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 13 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example, (Cont.)

Box Plot of Values

Boxplot of Values
(with Ho and 95% t-confidence interval for the mean)

_
X
Ho

4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1


Values

M# 334
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 14 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example, (Cont.)

Individual Value Plot (Dot Plot)

Individual Value Plot of Values


(with Ho and 95% t-confidence interval for the mean)

_
X
Ho

4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1


Values

M# 334
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 15 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example, (Cont.)

MINITABTM Session Window


H0 Ha n
(X i  X) 2
One-Sample T: Values
s 
i 1 n 1

Test of mu = 5 vs not = 5 S
SE Mean 
n

Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P


Values 9 4.78889 0.24721 0.08240 (4.59887, 4.97891) -2.56 0.034

T-Calc = Observed – Expected over SE Mean


T-Calc = X-bar – Target over Standard Error
T-Calc = 4.7889 – 5 over .0824 = - 2.56
N – sample size
Mean – calculate mathematic average
StDev – calculated individual Standard Deviation (classical method)
SE Mean – calculated Standard Deviation of the distribution of the Means
Confidence Interval that our population average will fall between 4.5989, 4.9789

M# 335
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 16 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Example, Evaluating the Results

6. Statistical Solution
Since the P-value of 0.034 is less than 0.05, reject the null hypothesis.
Based on the samples given, there is a difference between the 95%
Confidence Interval of the Sample Mean and the desired target.

X H0

7. Practical Solution
The new supplier’s claim that they can meet the target of 5 for the
hardness is not correct.

M# 335
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 17 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Manual Calculation of 1- Sample t

Let’s compare the manual calculations to what the


computer calculates.
– Calculate the observed t-statistic from data:

X  Target 4.79  5.00


t   2.56
s 0.247
n 9

– Determine critical t-value from t-table in reference section.


• When the alternative hypothesis has a not equal sign, it is a
two-sided test.
• Split the α in half and read from the 0.975 column in the t-
table for n -1 (9 - 1) degrees of freedom.

M# 336
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 18 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Manual Calculation of 1-Sample t

degrees of T - Distribution
freedom
.600 .700 .800 .900 .950 .975 .990 .995
1 0.325 0.727 1.376 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657
2 0.289 0.617 1.061 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925
3 0.277 0.584 0.978 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841
4 0.271 0.569 0.941 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604
5 0.267 0.559 0.920 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032

6 0.265 0.553 0.906 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707


7 0.263 0.549 0.896 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499
8 0.262 0.546 0.889 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355
9
10
0.261
0.260
0.543
0.542
0.883
0.879
1.383
1.372
1.833
1.812
2.262
2.228
2.821
2.764
3.250
3.169
m
-2.56

-2.306 2.306

α/2=.025 α/2 =.025

0
If the calculated t-value lies anywhere Critical Regions
in the critical regions, reject the null hypothesis.
– The data supports the alternative hypothesis that the estimate
for the Mean of the population is not 5.0. M# 336
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 19 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Confidence Intervals for a Two-Sided t Test

The formula for a two-sided t test is:

s s
X  t α/2,n 1  μ  X  t α/2,n 1
n n
or
X  t crit SE mean  4.788  2.306 * .0824

4.5989 to 4.9789

4.5989 X H0
4.9789
4.7889
M# 337
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 20 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Exercise

Exercise objective: Utilize what you have learned to


conduct and analyze a 1-Sample t test using MINITABTM.

1. The last engineering estimation said we would achieve a


product with average results of 32 parts per million (ppm).

2. We want to test if we are achieving this performance


level, we want to know if we are on target, with 95%
confidence in our answer. In Minitab worksheet
"HYPOTTESTSTUD.MTW, use data in column
C1 “ppm VOC”

3. Are we on target?

M# 337
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 21 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Exercise

Since we do not know the population Standard Deviation, we will use


the 1-Sample t test to determine if we are at target.
Stat > Basic Statistics > 1-Sample t…

M# 338
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 22 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Exercise

Select column C1 “ppm VOC’ in


the “Samples in columns”
window and set the
“Hypothesized mean:” to 32.
Now click “Graphs” button and
select “Histogram of data” to
get a good visualization of the
analysis.
Depending on the test you are
running you may need to select
“Options...” button to set your
desired Confidence Interval and
Alternative Hypothesis. For this
example the MINITABTM
defaults of 95% Confidence
Interval and an Alternative of
“not equal” are what we want.
M# 338
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 23 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Because we used the


Histogram of ppm VOC
option of “Graphs…” we (with Ho and 95% t-confidence interval for the mean)
10
get a nice visualization
of the data in a 8

histogram AND a plot of 6

Frequency
the null hypothesis
4
relative to the
confidence level of the 2

population Mean. 0 _
X
Ho
Because the null 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
ppm VOC
hypothesis is within the
confidence level, we will
“fail to reject the null hypothesis” that there is no difference in the
sample data mean and the target value of 32.

M# 339
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 24 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

In MINITABTM Session Window, we find the P-value of 0.201. Because


this is greater than our alpha of 0.05, we “fail to reject the null
hypothesis” and state: “With the data provided, the equipment is
producing product at the target of 32 ppm VOC”.

M# 339
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 25 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap

Normal Data
Comparing Means
One Factor Two Factors

Two Two Two or


One Samples Samples more
Sample Independent Paired Samples

1 Sample One Way Two Way


1 Sample 2 Sample t-test on
t-test t-test ANOVA ANOVA
differences
Stat – Basic Stats - 1t – Stat – ANOVA –One-way Stat – ANOVA – Two-way
Stat – Basic Stats Stat – Basic Stats
1 Sample t: Ho: μ1–μ2 = 0 If P-value <0.05 at least Test results display an
1t – 1 Sample t 2t – 2 Sample t
If P-value <0.05 a one mean is different ANOVA Table
If P-value <0.05 a If P-value <0.05
difference exists the means are difference exists between
between the mean different the paired samples
and target
Paired t-test
Stat – Basic Stats – t..t -
Comparing Variances Paired t; Ho: μδ = μo
If P-value <0.05 the
means are different

Test of Equal Variance

Two Samples More than Two Samples

1 Variance Test F- Test Bartlett’s Test

M# 340
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 26 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test

A 2-Sample t test is used to compare two Means.


Stat > Basic Statistics > 2-Sample t

m1 m2

MINITABTM performs an independent two-sample t-test and generates a


confidence interval.

Use 2-Sample t to perform a Hypothesis Test and compute a confidence


interval of the difference between two population Means when the population
Standard Deviations, σ’s, are unknown.

Two tailed test: One tailed test:


H0: μ1 = μ2 If P-value > α, fail to reject H0 H0: μ1 ≤ or ≥ μ2
Ha: μ1 ≠ μ2 If P-value < α, reject H0 Ha: μ1 > or < μ2
M# 340
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 27 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Sample Size

Stat > Power and Sample Size > 2-Sample t

Three fields must be filled in


and one left blank.
MinitabTM will calculate the
missing value.

M# 341
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 28 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Sample Size

The various sample


sizes show how much
of a difference can be
detected assuming the
Standard Deviation = 1.

M# 341
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 29 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Example

1. Practical Problem:
• We have conducted a study in order to determine the effectiveness
of a new heating system. We have installed two different types of
dampers in home (Damper = 1 and Damper = 2). The data is found
in worksheet “Furnace.MTW”
• We want to compare the “BTU.In” data from the two types of
dampers to determine if there is any difference between the two
products.
2. Statistical Problem:
H0:μ1 = μ2
Ha:μ1 ≠ μ2
3. 2-Sample t test (population Standard Deviations unknown).
α = 0.05 β = 0.10
No, not that kind of damper!
M# 342
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 30 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Example

4. Sample Size:
• Open the MINITABTM worksheet: “Furnace.MTW”
• Scroll through the data to see how the data is coded.
• In order to work with the data in the BTU.In column, we will need
to unstack the data by damper type.

M# 342
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 31 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Example

Data > Unstack Columns...

M# 343
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 32 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Example

M# 343
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 33 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Example

Stat > Power and Sample Size > 2-Sample t…

MINITABTM Session Window

M# 344
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 34 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Example: Follow the Roadmap…

5. Assess Normality and conduct the test


• Need to assess normality for both samples

M# 344
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 35 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Normality Test – Are the Data Normal?

Probability Plot of BTU.In_1


Normal
99
Mean 9.908
StDev 3.020
95 N 40
AD 0.475
90
P-Value 0.228
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10

1
5 10 15 20
BTU.In_1

M# 345
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 36 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Normality Test – Is the Data Normal?

Probability Plot of BTU.In_2


Normal
99
Mean 10.14
StDev 2.767
95 N 50
AD 0.190
90
P-Value 0.895
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10

1
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
BTU.In_2

M# 345
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 37 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test and Equal Variance

The 2-Sample t test procedure includes an estimation of the variance


of the difference between the two means. Once Normality is verified,
the variances of each sample to be compared.
Stat>ANOVA>Test for Test for Equal Variances...
Use the Stacked Column BTU.IN as
Response and Damper as factor

M# 346
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 38 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test and Equal Variance

Test for Equal Variances for BTU.In


F-Test
Test Statistic 1.19
1 P-Value 0.558
Damper

Lev ene's Test


Test Statistic 0.00
P-Value 0.996
Sample 1 2

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0


95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs
Sample 2

1
Damper

5 10 15 20
BTU.In

M# 346
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 39 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test with Equal Variance

Stat > Basic Statistics > 2-Sample t…

M# 347
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 40 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Example: Box Plot

M# 347
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2-Sample t Test Example: Solution

Calculated
Average (X i  X) 2
n
s 
i 1 n 1

S
SE Mean 
n (N1 – 1) + (N2-1)

Two- Sample T-Test


(Variances Equal)

H0: μ1 = μ2
-1.450 0.980
Ha: μ1≠ or < or > μ2
-0.38
6. Statistical Solution: Fail to reject the null hypothesis.
7. Practical Solution: There is no difference in BTU heating
effectiveness between the Dampers.
M# 348
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 42 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Exercise

Exercise objective: Utilize what you have learned to


conduct and analyze a 2-Sample t test using
MINITABTM.

1. Billy Bob’s Pool Care has conducted a study on the


effectiveness of two chlorination distributors in a swimming
pool. (Distributor 1 & Distributor 2).

2. The up and coming Billy Bob Jr., looking to prove himself,


wants a comparison done on the Clor.Lev_Post data from
the two types of distributors in order to determine if there is
any difference between the two products.

3. With 95% confidence is there a significant difference


between the two distributors?

File: BILLYBOBS POOL.MTW


M# 348
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 43 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test: Solution

Step 1 Practical Problem: What do we want to know: With 95%


confidence is there a significant difference between the two
distributors?

Step 2 Statistical Problem:


H0: μ1 = μ2
Ha: μ1 ≠ μ2
Step 3 2-Sample t test (population
Standard Deviations unknown).
α = 0.05 β = 0.10

Step 4 Now we need to look at the


data to determine the Sample Size
but let’s see how the data is
formatted first.

M# 349
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 44 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Data > Unstack Columns…

“Unstack the data in:” Select column ‘Clor.Levl_Post’


“Using subscripts in:” Select column ‘Distributor’
Select “After last column in use” radio button ‘on’
Check the “Name the columns containing the unstacked data” box
M# 349
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 45 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Clor.Lev_Post_1 = Distributor 1
Clor.Lev_Post_2 = Distributor 2

M# 350
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 46 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Determine the Power for the given sample sizes in the 2-Sample t test
Stat > Power and Sample Size > 2-Sample t…

M# 350
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 47 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

We want to determine what


is the smallest difference
that can be detected
based on our data.

Fill in the three areas and


leave “Differences:” blank
so that MINITABTM will tell
us the differences we
need.

M# 351
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 48 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

The smallest difference that can be calculated is based on the


smallest sample size.

In this case:
0.7339 rounded to 0.734

M# 351
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 49 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Step 5 Perform Normality test on both sample columns


Follow the path: Stat > Basic Statistics > Normality Test…

M# 351
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 50 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Step 5 (continued) Check Normality for ‘Clor.Lev_Post_1’


The results shows us a P-value of 0.304 so our data is Normal.

M# 352
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 51 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Step 5 (continued) Check Normality for ‘Clor.Lev_Post_2’


The results shows us a P-value of 0.941 so our data is also Normal.

M# 352
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 52 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Step 5 (continued) Test for Equal Variances between the


samples
Stat > ANOVA > Test for Equal Variances…

M# 353
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 53 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

For the “Response:” we select the stacked column ‘Clor.Lev_Post’

For our “Factors:” we select the stacked column ‘Distributor’

M# 353
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 54 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Since both samples are normally distributed, look at the F-Test P-value
of 0.113. This tells us that there is no statistically significant difference in
the variance in these two data sets.
What does this mean? …. We can now run a 2-Sample t test and
assume equal variances.

M# 354
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 55 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Step 5 (continued)
Run the 2-Sample t test:
Stat > Basic Statistics > 2-Sample t …

For “Samples:” enter ‘Clor.Lev_Post’


For “Subscripts:” enter ‘Distributors’
Check the box “Assume equal
variances”
M# 354
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 56 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Exercise: Solution

Look at the Box Plot & Session Window.


There is NO significant difference between the distributors.

Hmm, we’re
a lot alike!

M# 355
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 57 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap

Normal Data
Comparing Means
One Factor Two Factors

Two Two Two or


One Samples Samples more
Sample Independent Paired Samples

1 Sample One Way Two Way


1 Sample 2 Sample t-test on
t-test t-test ANOVA ANOVA
differences
Stat – Basic Stats - 1t – Stat – ANOVA –One-way Stat – ANOVA – Two-way
Stat – Basic Stats Stat – Basic Stats
1 Sample t: Ho: μ1–μ2 = 0 If P-value <0.05 at least Test results display an
1t – 1 Sample t 2t – 2 Sample t
If P-value <0.05 a one mean is different ANOVA Table
If P-value <0.05 a If P-value <0.05
difference exists difference exists between
the means are
between the mean the paired samples
different
and target
Paired t-test
Stat – Basic Stats – t..t -
Comparing Variances Paired t; Ho: μδ = μo
If P-value <0.05 the
means are different

Test of Equal Variance

Two Samples More than Two Samples

1 Variance Test F- Test Bartlett’s Test

M# 355
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 58 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Unequal Variance Example

Don’t just sit


there…. open it!

M# 356
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 59 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test

Normality Test of Samples Probability Plot of Sample 3


Normal

Let’s compare the data in


99.9
Mean 4.852
StDev 3.134
99 N 100
Sample 1 and Sample 3 columns. 95
AD
P-Value
0.274
0.658
90
80
70

Percent
Stat > Basic Statistics > Normality Test... 60
50
40
30
20
10
5

Probability Plot of Sample 1


1
Normal
99.9 0.1
Mean 4.853
-5 0 5 10 15
StDev 1.020
99 N 100
Sample 3
AD 0.374
95 P-Value 0.411
90
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20 Our data sets are
10
5 Normally Distributed.
1

0.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sample 1

M# 356
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 60 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test for Equal Variance

Standard Deviation
of Samples Stat > ANOVA > Test of Equal Variance...
Test for Equal Variances for Stacked
F-Test
Test Statistic 0.11
1 P-Value 0.000
Levene's Test
We use F-Test

C4
Test Statistic 67.07
P-Value 0.000
Statistic because 2

our data is Normally


1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Distributed. 95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs
P-value is less than
0.05, our variances
are not equal. 1
C4

Medians of Samples -5 0 5 10 15
Stacked

M# 357
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 61 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Example: Unequal Variance

Select Graph and


check both the
Individual value
plot and Boxplot
of data boxes

DO NOT CHECK
“Assume equal
variances” box.
M# 357
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 62 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Unequal Variance

Boxplot of Stacked by C4

15 Indicates
Sample
Means
10
Stacked

-5
1 2
C4

M# 358
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 63 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test Unequal Variance

Individual Value Plot of Stacked vs C4

15

Indicates
10 Sample
Means
Stacked

-5
1 2
C4

M# 358
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 64 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2-Sample t Test With Unequal Variance

Two-Sample T-Test
(Variances Not Equal)

H0: μ1 = μ2 (P-value > 0.05)


Ha: μ1 ≠ or < or > μ2 (P-value < 0.05)

Stat > Basic Statistics > 2-Sample t ... (Deselect Assume Equal Variance)

M# 359
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 65 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap

Normal Data
Comparing Means
One Factor Two Factors

Two Two Two or


One Samples Samples more
Sample Independent Paired Samples

1 Sample One Way Two Way


1 Sample 2 Sample t-test on
t-test t-test ANOVA ANOVA
differences
Stat – Basic Stats - 1t – Stat – ANOVA –One-way Stat – ANOVA – Two-way
Stat – Basic Stats Stat – Basic Stats
1 Sample t: Ho: μ1–μ2 = 0 If P-value <0.05 at least Test results display an
1t – 1 Sample t 2t – 2 Sample t
If P-value <0.05 a one mean is different ANOVA Table
If P-value <0.05 a If P-value <0.05
difference exists the means are difference exists between
between the mean different the paired samples
and target
Paired t-test
Stat – Basic Stats – t..t -
Comparing Variances Paired t; Ho: μδ = μo
If P-value <0.05 the
means are different

Test of Equal Variance

Two Samples More than Two Samples

1 Variance Test F- Test Bartlett’s Test

M# 359
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 66 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test

A Paired t test is used to compare the Means of two measurements from the
same samples generally used as a before and after test.
Stat > Basic Statistics > Paired t…
MINITABTM performs a Paired t test. This is appropriate for testing the
difference between two Means when the data are paired and the paired
differences follow a Normal Distribution.

Use the Paired t command to compute a confidence interval and perform a


Hypothesis Test of the difference between population Means when
observations are paired. A Paired t procedure matches responses that are
dependent or related in a pair-wise delta
manner. This matching allows you to account for (d)
variability between the pairs usually resulting in
a smaller error term, thus increasing the sensitivity
of the Hypothesis Test or confidence interval.
– H0: μδ = μo
– Ha: μδ ≠ μo m m before after
Where μδ is the population Mean of the differences and μ0 is the hypothesized
Mean of the differences, typically zero.
M# 360
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 67 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Example

1. Practical Problem:
• We are interested in changing the sole material for a popular
brand of shoes for children.
• In order to account for variation in activity of children wearing the
shoes, each child will wear one shoe of each type of sole
material. The sole material will be randomly assigned to either
the left or right shoe.
2. Statistical Problem:
H0: μδ = 0
Ha: μδ ≠ 0
3. Paired t test (comparing data that must remain paired).
α = 0.05 β = 0.10

Just checking your souls,


er…soles!
M# 360
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 68 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Example

4. Sample Size:
• How much of a difference can be detected with 10 samples?
Exh_stat delta.MTW

M# 361
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 69 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Example

Stat > Power and Sample size> 1-Sample t...

Now that’s
a tee test!

MINITABTM Session Window


Power and Sample Size
1-Sample t Test
Testing Mean = null (versus not = null)
Calculating power for Mean = null + difference
This means we will be able to
Alpha = 0.05 Assumed Standard Deviation = 1
detect a difference of only 1.15
if the Standard Deviation is Sample
Size Power Difference
equal to 1.
10 0.9 1.15456

M# 361
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 70 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Example

5. Prepare the data and run tests


Calc > Calculator…

We need to calculate the difference


between the two distributions. We are
concerned with the delta; is the H0 outside
the t-calc (confidence interval)?
M# 362
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 71 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Example: Analyzing the Delta

Following the Hypothesis Test roadmap, we test the AB-Delta


column for Normality.
Stat > Basic Statistics > Normality Test…

Probability Plot of AB Delta


Normal
99
Mean 0.41
StDev 0.3872
95 N 10
AD 0.261
90
P-Value 0.622
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10

1
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
AB Delta

M# 362
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 72 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test: Using a 1-Sample t test on the difference column

Stat > Basic Statistics > 1-Sample t…


Since there is only one
column, AB Delta, we do not
test for equal variance per
the 2-Sample t Hypothesis
Testing roadmap.

Check this data for statistical


significance in its departure
from our expected value of
zero.

M# 363
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 73 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Solution

MINITABTM Session Window

6. State Statistical Solution: Reject the null hypothesis


7. State Practical Solution: We are 95% confident that there is a
difference in wear between the two materials.
M# 363
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 74 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test

Another way to analyze this data is to use the Paired t test command.
Stat > Basic Statistics > Paired t…

Click on “Graphs…” and select


the graphs you would like
to generate.

M# 364
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 75 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test

The P-value of from this


Paired T-Test tells us the
difference in materials is
statistically significant.

M# 364
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 76 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test

The wrong way to analyze this data is to use a 2-Sample t test:

MINITABTM Session Window

Two-sample T for Mat-A vs Mat-B


N Mean StDev SE Mean
Mat-A 10 10.63 2.45 0.78
Mat-B 10 11.04 2.52 0.80
Difference = mu (Mat-A) - mu (Mat-B)
Estimate for difference: -0.410000
95% CI for difference: (-2.744924, 1.924924)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = -0.37 P-Value = 0.716 DF = 18
Both use Pooled StDev = 2.4851

M# 365
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 77 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Exercise

Exercise objective: Utilize what you have learned to conduct


and analyze a Paired t Test using MINITABTM.

1. A corrugated packaging company produces material which has


creases to make boxes easier to fold. It is a critical to quality
characteristic to have a predictable Relative Crease Strength. The
quality manager is having her lab test some samples labeled 1-11.
Then those same samples are being sent to her colleague at
another facility who will report their measurements on those same
1-11 samples.

2. The US quality manager wants to know with 95% confidence what


the average difference is between the lab located in Texas and the
lab located in Mexico when measuring Relative Crease Strength.

3. Use the data in columns “Texas” & “Mexico” in “RM Suppliers.mtw”


to determine the answer to the quality manager’s question.

M# 365
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 78 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Exercise: Solution

Calc > Calculator…


Because the two labs
ensured to exactly report
measurement results for
the same parts and the
results were put in the
correct corresponding
row, we are able to do a
Paired t test.
The first thing we must
do is create a new
column with the
difference between the
two test results.

M# 366
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 79 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Exercise: Solution

We must confirm the differences (now in a new calculated column) are


from a Normal Distribution. This is confirmed with the Anderson-
Darling Normality Test under
Stat > Basic Statistics > Normality Test…

M# 366
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 80 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Exercise: Solution

As we’ve seen before, this 1-Sample t analysis is found with:


Stat > Basic Statistics > 1-Sample t...

M# 367
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 81 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Paired t Test Exercise: Solution

Even though the Mean difference is 0.23, we have a 95% confidence


interval that includes zero so we “fail to reject” the 1-Sample t test null
hypothesis and conclude that we cannot tell a difference in the results
provided from the two labs.

The P-value is greater


than 0.05 so we do not
have the 95% confidence
we wanted to confirm a
difference in the lab
Means. This confidence
interval could be reduced
with more samples taken
next time and analyzed
by both labs.

M# 367
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 82 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap

Normal Data
Comparing Means
One Factor Two Factors

Two Two Two or


One Samples Samples more
Sample Independent Paired Samples

1 Sample One Way Two Way


1 Sample 2 Sample t-test on
t-test t-test ANOVA ANOVA
differences
Stat – Basic Stats - 1t – Stat – ANOVA –One-way Stat – ANOVA – Two-way
Stat – Basic Stats Stat – Basic Stats
1 Sample t: Ho: μ1–μ2 = 0 If P-value <0.05 at least Test results display an
1t – 1 Sample t 2t – 2 Sample t
If P-value <0.05 a one mean is different ANOVA Table
If P-value <0.05 a If P-value <0.05
difference exists the means are difference exists between
between the mean different the paired samples
and target
Paired t-test
Stat – Basic Stats – t..t -
Comparing Variances Paired t; Ho: μδ = μo
If P-value <0.05 the
means are different

Test of Equal Variance

Two Samples More than Two Samples

1 Variance Test F- Test Bartlett’s Test

M# 368
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 83 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Summary

At this point, you should be able to:


• Determine appropriate sample sizes for testing Means
• Conduct various Hypothesis Tests for Means on Normally
distributed continuous data samples
• Properly analyze results

M# 369
OSSS LSS Black Belt v10.3 - Analyze Phase 84 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC

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