Rates of Return
Single period, and with dividends.
0 1
100 120
0 1
100 120
Div 5
For the EAR you compound it over 12 months. (interest is paid on interest unless you repay)
0 1 2
0 1 2
0 1 2
100 50 100
-50% +100%
• Arith. Avg = 25%
When different amounts are being managed/invested, for different periods of time, then this is just the
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR).
Pre-tax & After-tax Returns
NOTE: Assumption
Assume a tax rate of 30%. implicit in this
calculation is that taxes
are paid as you go, i.e,
10% 1 10% 2 that gains are realized
and taxed each year.
With mutual funds, the
100 * (1.10) = 110 121 amount to be taxed is
- tax = -3 determined by the fund
at distribution time. For
After-tax = 107*(1.10) = 117.70 individuals, this may not
- tax = 3.21 be appropriate if you are
holding stocks long-
After-tax = 114.49 term.
Together
100 * (1.07 ) = 107 * (1.07) = 114.49
or 10 % pre-tax 10 * (1-tax rate) 7% after tax
Fully Equivalent Taxable Yield (FETY)
A CA bond has a yield of 6%, exempt from both federal taxes (@30%) and state taxes @10%.
To compare this with a corporate bond on which both federal and state taxes apply, calculate FETY as:
6%
___________ = 10%
(1 - 0.4)
Nominal and Real Rates of Return
0 r = 9%(nominal) 1
At time 1, the $109 purchases 109/107 = 1.0187 “baskets.” So in terms of purchasing power, the 9%
return translates into 1.87% more “baskets” with 7% inflation.
1 + nominal rate
Or, real rate of return = ------------------------ - 1 = (1.09/1.07) – 1 = 0.0187 or 1.87%
1 + inflation rate
Nominal and Real Rates of Return (Cont.)
Common approximation:
Inflation Adjustment
Other Savings
You are part of the investment committee of a large pension fund. Say it is the Employees Provident Fund
Organization of India (EPFO).
BTW, it is the 21st largest pension fund in the world, with assets over USD 110 billion.
Employees contribute a portion of their salaries to this provident fund. Employers match it.
The money gets invested in fixed income (essentially they are financing the government’s budget deficit!
Recently, they were permitted to invest upto 15% of new inflows in the NIFTY and SENSEX ETFs.
0.5 50%
0.3 10%
0.4 -20%
• Business Risk
• Financial Risk
• Exchange rate/Country risks
• Systematic and unsystematic risks
Risk and Expected Return Standard Model (CAPM)
E(return)
SML (CAPM)
Risk (beta)
• E(Rj) = Rf + [E(Rm)-Rf] * j = 2 + 6 j
• Slope of line = 6 reward per unit risk
• Intercept of line = risk free rate = 2%
Where Does This Come From?
Rf 4% 0.0 0
• For A, the expected return of 14% from current price levels implies an expected future price
of 15 * (1.14) = $17.1
• For B, expected return of 12% => expected future price of 50 * 1.12 = $56
Case(i): Suppose B is priced correctly with a risk-reward of 8
• A is priced incorrectly. Investors will buy B, those owning A will sell it and move to B until A’s
risk-reward is same as B.
• A’s price will fall and its expected return will rise.
• What expected return for A is consistent with a risk-reward of 8?
• [E(R ) – 4]/1.5 = 8, E(R ) = 16% (increases)
• What current price (based on future expected price of 17.1?
• Current Price * (1.16) = 17.1, implies Current price for A = 14.74 (decreases from 15).
• NOTE: This is a bit contrived to make the point, we have to keep something fixed!
Case (ii): Suppose instead that A is priced correctly
• Then B is undervalued and its price will increase to 50.601, its expected return will drop to
10.67% and its risk-reward ratio will be 6.67. Confirm it!
• Often, both can happen especially if the market risk-reward is 7 (say). The example
illustrates a process of how assets get priced and repriced in markets.
The message is that prices will (should) move this way to equate risk/reward ratios across all
assets. Or, prices should be set so that the risk/reward ratio for all assets are equal.
Case (ii): Suppose instead that A is priced correctly
• Then B is undervalued and its price will increase to 50.601, its expected return will drop to
10.67% and its risk-reward ratio will be 6.67. Confirm it!
• Often, both can happen especially if the market risk-reward is 7 (say). The example
illustrates a process of how assets get priced and repriced in markets.
The message is that prices will (should) move this way to equate risk/reward ratios across all
assets. Or, prices should be set so that the risk/reward ratio for all assets are equal.
Here the risk-reward ratio has a specific form and using it,
• [E(Rj) – Rf]/j = [E(Rm) – Rf]/1.0 = 8, Rearranging:
• E(Rj) = Rf + j [E(Rm) – Rf] or the CAPM.
In life, the risk-reward is probably more complicated than that assumed for the
CAPM and other models for valuing assets exist.