DEMAND FORECASTING
AND
ELEMENTS OF COST
What you will know?
Macro and Micro economics
Demand and supply
Factors influencing demand
Elasticity of demand
Demand forecasting – time series, exponential
smoothing, casual, Delphi method,
correlation and regression, Barometric
method, long and short run forecast
Elements of cost – Material cost, labour cost
Expenses- types of cost, cost of production,
overhead expenses, problems
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Macro and Micro Economics
The study of economics is divided into two parts.
- Micro Economics and Macro Economics
Micro economics: Microeconomics is the study of
the small part or component of the whole economy
that we are analyzing. For example we may be
studying an individual firm or in any particular
industry. In Microeconomics we study the price of a
particular product or particular factor of the
production.
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We can summarize the objects of macroeconomics as :
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Macro economics involves choice among
alternative central objectives.
A nation can’t always have high
consumption and rapid growth.
High inflation rate has either a period of high
unemployment and low output, or
interference with free markets through
wage-price policies. These difficult choices
are among those that must be faced by
macroeconomic policy makers in any nation.
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Demand and Supply
What is the salary of a school teacher?
How much does a management guru like
Arindham Chaudhry charge per hour?
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Have you ever awakened at 3 AM with a bad
headache and had to rush to the pharmacy to
buy some aspirin?
How did the store know to have aspirin in
stock?
Who coordinates this production to make sure
there is enough? What price should be charged
for aspirin?
Government officials don't tell businesses how
much aspirin to produce nor the price to charge.
Private producers figure out production levels
and prices on their own.
The producer supplies the product if she can
make a profit by doing so.
Demand
the amount consumers desire to purchase at various prices
Not what they will buy, but what they would like to buy!
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Individual and Market Demand
Market demand – consists of the sum of
all individual demand schedules
in the market
Represented by a demand curve
At higher prices, consumers generally
willing to purchase less than at lower
prices
Demand curve – negative slope,
downward sloping from left to right
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Demand Curve
The demand curve
slopes downwards from
left to right (a negative
slope) indicating an
Price
inverse relationship
between price and the
quantity demanded.
Rs.100
Demand will be higher
at lower prices than at
Demand higher prices. As price
falls, demand rises. As
price rises, demand
Rs.50
falls.
100 150
Quantity
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Factors influencing demand
D = f (Pn, Pn…Pn-1 , Y, T, P, A, E)
Where:
Pn = Price
Pn…Pn-1 = Prices of other goods – substitutes
and complements
Y = Incomes – the level and distribution
of income
T = Tastes, Trends and fashions
P = The level and structure of the population,
Popularity
A = Advertising, Attitude
E = Expectations of consumers
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Elasticity of demand (EOD)
The law of demand tells us that as the price of
a commodity falls, the quantity demanded
increases, and vice versa.( Eg. Gold)
But it does not state by how much the quantity
demanded increases as a result of a certain fall
in the price or by how much the quantity
demanded decreases as a result of the rise in
the price.
In other words it only tells us only direction of
change but not the rate of change.
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Definition and formula of EOD
The degree of responsiveness of the quantity demanded to a change in
price
= (Q2-Q1) / Q1
(P2-P1) / P1
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Contd..
Where
Q1 = Quantity demanded before price change
Q2 = Quantity demanded after price change
P1 = Price charged before price change
P2 = Price charged after price change
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Types of elasticity of demand
Perfectly elastic demand (At a given price or less than the given price, infinite qty will
be bought)
Perfectly inelastic demand ( Same qty will be bought at any price)
Demand with unity elasticity (Equally proportionate demand for proportionate change)
Relatively elastic demand ( More than proportionate demand due to price change)
Relatively inelastic demand (less than proportionate demand due to price change)
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Perfectly elastic demand Perfectly inelastic demand
Price
Price
Price
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Demand Forecasting
Time series,
Exponential smoothing,
Casual,
Delphi method,
Correlation and regression,
Barometric method,
Long and short run forecast
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Delphi Method
The most primitive method of forecasting is
guessing.
Delphi is used for long-range forecast.
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The result may be rated acceptable if the person
making the guess is an expert in the matter.
In this method, a panel of outside experts is identified.
They are given a series of structured questionnaires.
The answers of each questionnaire are used as input
for the design of the next questionnaire.
The identity of experts is not disclosed. This is for the
purpose that nobody should influence the opinion of
others.
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In the next step, the researcher coordinator
makes a summary of all the replies he has
received.
He then sends the summary to the respondents
and asks if any of them wants to revise his
original response.
The Delphi procedure is normally repeated until
the respondents are no longer willing to adjust
their responses.
The opinions are compared for similarity or
variation
If the variation is too much, the expert is asked
to justify for the opinion
Based on the replies a final consensus will be
arrived about the product demand
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Disadvantages
The Delphi method is not very reliable.
Results of Delphi questionnaires are often later
found to have predicted the real course of
events remarkably badly.
Wrong guesses are often made by renowned
specialists and sometimes even by a majority of
them, and the odd person who is later found to
have predicted right would perhaps never have
been elected to the Delphi group of experts
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Elements of cost
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Classification of costs
According to
Nature
Function
Behaviour
Identifiably
Association with products
Controllability
Normality
Time
Relevance and
Other costs
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According to nature or elements
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Direct materials
Also known as Productive materials,
it is the cost of the material that enter into and forms a
part of the product
it is essential for the completion of the product
Examples:
Timber in furniture making and clay in brick making,
HSS bit for making turning tool
Ni, Fe, Cr etc for making alloy steels
Indirect materials
Essentially needed to convert the raw materials into final
products but not used directly in the product itself.
Eg. coolants, grease, cotton waste , thread, nail, gum,
fuel, etc
The cost associated with indirect material is called
indirect cost
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Labour cost
Cost of remuneration of the employees
of an organization. Such as wages,
salaries, bonus, commissions etc.
Types:
Direct labour cost
Indirect labour cost
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Direct labour cost
The cost of labour that can be directly
associated with the manufacture of the product
and can be allocated to cost centers and cost
units.
A direct labour is one who converts the direct
material into a saleable product and the
expenses incurred on such labour is called
direct labour cost
The direct labour cost may be apportioned to
the unit of the cost or on the basis of the time
spent by the worker or as the price for some
physical measurement of the product
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Indirect labour cost
The cost of the labour that does not alter
the construction, composition,
conformation, or the condition of the
direct material but is necessary for the
progressive movement and handling of
the product to the point of dispatch.
This cost is absorbed by the cost
centers and cost units.
Eg. Maintenance men, helpers, machine
setters, supervisors, foremen etc.
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Expenses
It’s a collective title which refers to all
charges other than those incurred as a
direct result of employing workers or
obtaining material.
Types:
Direct expenses
Indirect expenses
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Direct expense
Expenses that can be identified with and allocated
to cost centers /cost units
Eg: Costs of special layouts, designs, drawings, for a
special job
Hiring special purpose machines or equipments for a
particular production order
Indirect Expense:
Expenses absorbed by cost centers or cost units
Eg: building rent, Insurance, phone bills etc.
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Fixed expense
Costs that remain fixed independent of
the volume of production
Eg: land tax, water tax, building tax,
depreciation, rent , insurance, salary etc.
Variable expense:
Costs that vary directly with volume of
production.
Eg: electricity, wages for contract labour,
consumables, raw material cost etc..
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Prime cost
Direct labour cost + Direct expenses
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Overheads
All expenses other than direct expenses
Defn.: cost of indirect material, indirect labour
and other indirect expenses including services.
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i) Manufacturing overhead
All direct expenses incurred by the company from
the receipt of production order to its completion
for despatch to the customer
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3. Water, fuel, power
4. Consumables like cotton waste, grease
etc.
5. Plant maintenance and depreciation
6. Sundry expenses such as security,
employment office, welfare measures,
recreation facilities, restrooms etc.
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ii) Administrative overhead
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iii) Selling overhead
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iv) Distribution overhead
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R & D overhead
Expenses on research
Expenses on product development
Factory Cost:
= Prime cost + factory overhead
= direct material cost + direct labour cost +
direct expenses + factory overhead
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Total cost = Factory cost
+ selling overhead
+ distribution overhead
+ administrative overhead
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