Lot-by-lot

Acceptance Sampling
Techniques
by
Attributes
Assoc. Prof. Ir. Dr. Cheong Kuan Yew
School of Materials & Mineral Resources Engineering
Engineering Campus
Universiti Sains Malaysia
 Topic Outcome:
At the end of this topic, students will be able to:
Discuss the properties of an operating-characteristic
(OC) curve.
Design, construct, and use an OC curve.
Describe the consumer-producer relationship from a
OC curve.
Determine and explain producer’s risk, consumer’s
risk, AQL, and LQ.
Apply a sampling plan.
 Topic Outline:
Operating Characteristics (OC) Curve
Introduction.
Methods of calculating the probability of acceptance.
Construction of an OC curve using Poisson
Distribution.
Properties of an OC curve
Consumer-Producer Relationship
Producer’s Risk (α ) & AQL
Consumer’s Risk (β ) & LQ
 Operating-Characteristic (OC)
Curve – An Introduction
 An OC curve is a graph of Lot Nonconforming (or Percent
Nonconforming, 100p0) versus Probability that a sampling
plan would accept the lots,
lots Pa (or Percent of Lots
Accepted, 100Pa).
 Material with 0 nonconforming

a
 Accepted always

P001
 Pa = 1.0
 Material with 100% nonconforming
 Rejected always 100p0
 Pa = 0
 What is the usage of OC curves?
It shows the chance of a lot being
accepted for a particular incoming process
quality.
quality
It shows the discriminatory power
of a sampling plan.
 Ideal OC Curve
• All lots >5%
nonconforming have
[or Percent of Lots Accepted,100Pa]

a probability of
acceptance of 0.
Probability of Acceptance, Pa

1.0
• All lots <5%
nonconforming have
a probability of
Acceptance

Rejection
Region

Region
0.5 acceptance of 1.0.

0
5.0 10.0
Percent Nonconforming (100p0)
 In actual practice, no sampling plan exists
that can be discriminate perfectly.
perfectly

 There is always a risk of rejecting a

“good” lot and accepting a “bad” lot.

 The best we can do is to control the

risks.
 Probability of Acceptance, Pa
[or Percent of Lots Accepted,100Pa]

0.5

0
1.0
 Non-Ideal OC Curve

5.0 10.0
Percent Nonconforming (100p0)
 Summary of common probability distributions

Probability Distributions

Discrete Continuous

Uniform Uniform

Binomial Normal

Pascal (negative binomial) Exponential

Geometric Gamma

Hypergeometric Erlang

Weibull
Possion
Methods of Calculating the Probability of Acceptance:
For attribute sampling, the following distributions are used to
calculate the probability of acceptance.
Distribution Formula Conditions

Hypergeometric 1) Population is
CdDCnN−−dD FINITE.
P( d ) = 2) Random sample is
N
Cn taken without
D!
•
( N − D )! replacement.
d !( D − d )! ( n − d )!( N − D − n + D )! 3) n/N ≤ 0.10  can
P( d ) =
N! be approx. by
n!( N − n )! binomial distribution.
Distribution Formula Conditions

Binomial 1) For discrete

probability
n!
P( d ) = p0d q0n − d distributions that have
d!( n − d )! an infinite number of
items or that have a
steady stream of
items from a work
center.
Distribution Formula Conditions

Poisson 1) Sample size ≥ 16

2) n/N ≥ 0.10
3) p0 < 0.1 (on each trial)

P( c ) =
( np0 ) c − np
e 0
When these
c!
assumptions are
met, the Poisson
Distribution is
preferable because
of the ease of
calculation.

Poisson distribution is an excellent approximation to binomial

for almost all sampling plans
P(d) = probability of d nonconforming units in a sample of size n.
CnN = combinations of all units.
CdD = combinations of nonconforming units.
CnN−−dD = combinations of conforming units.
N = number of units in the lot (population).
n = number of units in the sample.
D = number of nonconforming units in the lot.
d = number of nonconforming units in the sample.
N-D = number of conforming units in the lot.
n-d = number of conforming units in the sample.
p0 = proportion nonconforming in the population.
q0 = proportion conforming (1-p0) in the population.
c = count, or number, of events of a given classification
occurring in a sample.
np0 = average count, or average number, of events of a given
classification occurring in a sample.
Construction of an OC curve using
Poisson Distribution (Single Sampling
Plan) Lot size, N = 3000
Sample size,n = 89
Acceptance number, c = 2
Conditions of using Poisson Distribution:
1) Sample size ≥ 16  OK
2) n/N ≥ 0.10  0.03
3) p0 < 0.1 (on each trial)  ??
Binomial Distribution can be used  for simplicity  Poisson Distribution
is employed.
OBJECTIVE  100p0 vs. 100Pa
• Lot size, N = 3000
• Sample size,n = 89
• Acceptance number, c = 2

100p0 vs. 100Pa

Assumed Process Probability of

Quality Acceptance
(Poisson
p0 = 0.02 Distribution)
Poisson Table
or
Computer Software
(EXCEL)
(1) Obtaining Pa value from Poisson Table

np0 = (89)(0.02) = 1.8

Acceptance number, c = 2
Possible to have 0, 1, or 2 nonconforming units in the sample.
Pa = P0 + P1 + P2
= P2 or less
= 0.731
Pa value is obtained from Poisson
Table for c = 2 and np0 = 1.8

np0 = number of nonconforming

(2) Obtaining Pa value from EXCEL

Steps:
1) Click icon of fx.
2) Function Category: Statistical.
3) Function name: Poisson.
4) Click OK
5) x(number of events) = 2
6) Mean (np0) = 1.8
7) Cumulative: Type in “TRUE” [note: “FALSE”  non-
cumulative]
Answer = 0.731
Syntax:
POISSON(x,mean,cumulative)
Steps of Constructing an OC curve:

1) Assume p0 value
2) Calculate np0 value
3) Attain Pa values from Poisson Table using applicable c
and np0 values or from EXCEL program
4) Plot point (100p0 vs.100Pa)
5) Repeat steps 1 to 4 until a smooth curve is obtained.

Approximately 7 points are needed to describe the curve

with a greater concentration of points where the curve
changes direction.
Assumed Process Number Probability of
Quality nonconforming Acceptance
p0 100p0 n np0 Pa 100Pa
0 0 89 0 1 100
0.0025 0.25 89 0.2225 0.998 99.8
0.005 0.5 89 0.445 0.989 98.9
0.0075 0.75 89 0.6675 0.970 97.0
0.01 1 89 0.89 0.939 93.9
0.0125 1.25 89 1.1125 0.898 89.8
0.015 1.5 89 1.335 0.849 84.9
0.0175 1.75 89 1.5575 0.794 79.4
0.02 2 89 1.78 0.736 73.6
0.0225 2.25 89 2.0025 0.676 67.6
0.025 2.5 89 2.225 0.616 61.6
0.0275 2.75 89 2.4475 0.557 55.7
0.03 3 89 2.67 0.501 50.1
0.0325 3.25 89 2.8925 0.448 44.8
0.035 3.5 89 3.115 0.398 39.8
0.0375 3.75 89 3.3375 0.352 35.2
0.04 4 89 3.56 0.310 31.0
0.0425 4.25 89 3.7825 0.272 27.2
0.045 4.5 89 4.005 0.237 23.7
 OC Curve

100

90
It shows the chance of a
Percent of Lots Accepted (100Pa )

80

70 lot being accepted for a

60 particular incoming
50

40
process quality.
30

20 e.g.:
10
• Incoming process
0
0 1.5 3 4.5 6
Percent Nonconforming (100p0)
quality = 2.3%
• 66% of the lots is
expected to be
accepted.
The above OC curve is unique to the single
sampling plan defined by N = 3000, n = 89, and c = 2.

If this sampling plan does not give the desired

effectiveness then the sampling
effectiveness, plan should
be changed and a new OC curve should be
constructed and evaluated.
evaluated
OC curve for Double Sampling Plans
OC curve for Multiple Sampling Plans
OC Curve Properties
Sample size as a fixed percentage of lot size
Fixed sample size
As sample size increases, the curve becomes steeper
As the acceptance number decreases, the curve
becomes steeper
 An OC curve can be plotted for any combination of sample
size (n) and acceptance number (c).
 Each combination results in a different curve.
 Some of the most important things to remember about OC
curves can be seen by comparing the curves.
 DIFFERENT n: A larger sample size tends to result in a
steeper curve  such a plan is said to have greater
“discriminating power” than plan with smaller sample size
and shallower curve.
 DIFFERENT c: a larger c tends to change the shape of the
curve, creating a flat “shoulder” at the top while retaining a
thin “tail” at the bottom.
 OC curve has 3 parts
Shoulder (or peak) at the top
It shows the quality of the product that
[or Percent of Lots Accepted,100Pa]

will be accepted by sampling plan

Probability of Acceptance, Pa

1.0
without question.
Middle portion between shoulder and
tail
At exact centre of the curve, where the Pa
0.5 is 50%, product of corresponding quality
has 50-50 chance of being either rejected
or accepted.

Thin part of the tail at

the bottom
0 It shows the quality of
5.0 10.0
Percent Nonconforming (100p0) the product that is almost
certain to be rejected by
the plan.
 In general, engineer should make sure that the “shoulder”
of the curve corresponds to the product he/she is willing to
be accepted and that the “tail” of the curve corresponds to
the product he/she is willing to be rejected.
 Maximum economy is likely to be obtained when the
process is running at or near its capability level and
when this level matches the shoulder of the OC curve to
be used.
(2) Consumer–Producer Relationship
Producer’s Risk
AQL
Producer’s Risk (α )
 It is defined as the probability or risk of rejecting a lot
when the quality of the lot is acceptable.
 What does this mean to an engineer?
 The risk for a good product to be rejected  a lost to an
organization.

 Example:
 A process capability is 99%. Customer is willing to accept 1%
nonconforming units. However, during inspection a certain
percentage of lots still rejected ever though the percent of
nonconforming is less than 1%.
How to estimate Producer’s Risk (α )
1) Plot OC curve for the sampling plan.
2) Find the percentage nonconforming (100p0) in the
process.
• Rough estimation can be done if no exact data is
available.
• However for a more accurate check, a process
capability study is preferable.
1) Use the process capability percentage to determine the
probability of acceptance (Pa) on the OC curve.
2) Producer’s Risk (α ) = 1 - Pa
Q & A:

Process Capability = 99%

1.Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=0
2.Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=1
3.Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=2
4.Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=3
5.Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=4
Find the Producer’s Risk for the above sampling plans
according to the stated process capability.
 OC Curve Process Capability = 99%
 100p0 = 1%
100

90 Percentage of Lots
Percent of Lots Accepted (100Pa )

NOT Accepted (Pr)

80

70
c=4 c 100Pa 100α

60 0 44.9% 55.1%
c=3
50
1 80.9% 19.1%
40
c=2
30 2 95.2% 4.8%
20
c=1
3 99.1% 0.9%
10
c=0 4 99.8% 0.2%
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Percent Nonconforming (100p 0)
Acceptable Quality Level (AQL)
 It is associated with producer’s risk.
 It is a numerical definition of an acceptable lot.
 It is the maximum percent nonconforming that can be
considered satisfactory for the purposes of acceptance
sampling.
 It is a reference point on the OC curve and is not
meant to convey to the producer that any percent
nonconforming is acceptable.
 It is a statistical term and is not meant to be used by
general public.
 Producer only can guarantee an acceptable lot when 0%
nonconforming or the number nonconforming in the lot
less than or equal to acceptance number, c.
 Producer’s quality goal is to meet or exceed the
specifications so that no nonconforming units are
present in the lot.
 A sampling plan should have a low Producer’s risk for
quality that is equal to or better than the AQL.
 Example:

Sampling plan: N=4000, n=300, and c=4, AQL=0.7%.

What is the non-acceptance probability?
 OC Curve
93%
100
Comment: 90
(AQL, 1-100Pa)

Percent of Lots Accepted (100Pa )

• Producer’s risk = 7% 80

• Product that is 0.7% 70

nonconforming will have 60

a non-acceptance
50
probability of 0.07 or
7%. 40

30
• 7 out of 100 lots that
are 0.7% 20

nonconforming will not 10

be accepted by the
0
sampling plan. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Percent Nonconforming (100p 0)
Consumer’s Risk
LQ
Consumer’s Risk (β )
 It is defined as the probability or risk of accepting a “bad”
lot based on a sampling plan.
 It is expressed in terms of probability of acceptance.
 To estimate consumer’s risk:
Plot OC curve for a sampling plan.
Find out the percent nonconforming that the
consumer wants to reject.
Find this value on the OC curve and determine the
probability of acceptance. This gives the risk of
accepting unsatisfactory quality provided the product
of such poor quality is actually submitted.
Q & A:

Consumer wants to reject product that is 4% nonconforming.

1. Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=0
2. Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=1
3. Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=2
4. Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=3
5. Sampling Plan, N=3000, n=80, c=4
Find the Consumer’s Risk (β ) for the above sampling plans.
 OC Curve

100

90
Percent of Lots Accepted (100Pa )

80

70
c=4 c 100Pa=100β

60 0 4.1%
c=3
50
1 17.1%
40
c=2
30 2 38.0%
20
c=1
3 60.2%
10
c=0 4 78.1%
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Percent Nonconforming (100p 0)
Limiting Quality (LQ)
 It is associated with consumer’s risk.
 It is a numerical definition of a nonconforming lot.
 It is the percent nonconforming in a lot for which (for
acceptance purposes) the consumer wishes the
probability of acceptance to be low.
 For previous example, LQ = 4% for 100β = 5% (for c=0)
 lots that are 4% nonconforming will have a 5%
chance of being accepted.  1 out of 20 lots that are
4% nonconforming will be accepted by this sampling
plan.
Design of Sampling Plan
 Design of Sampling Plan

“Rule of Thumb”
A sampling plan should not be adopted
without seeing the OC curve!!!!!
END