Climate Change, Floods and

Water Management

Dr. Ziagham Habib

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Temporal
Behavior of
Glaciers

Study
Area

Study
Area
 Location of Selected Glaciers and Lakes

Astor River basin

Lake_5 Lake_4
Lake_3
Lake_2 Lake_1
Gr_5
Gr_4

Gr_3

Gr_2

Jhelum River basin Gr_1

(Kunhar)
Folvi glacier

SPOT XS image (1st Sep. 2005)

 1993

Landsat-7 ETM+
5 4 30th Sept. 2001
3 2 2001
1

5 4
Landsat-5 TM in 3 2
14th July, 1993
1 2005

5 4
3
SPOT- 4 XS 2
1st Sept., 2005 1
 Extreme Events During Last 10 Years

1. Heavy Summer Floods – monsoon, westerly

depression, locking of Jet Stream
2. Worst draught in the history of Pakistan
2000-2001
3. Land slides – formation of a large lake at
Attabad (Hunza)
4. Glacier Lake Burst Causing flash floods
5. Cyclones
Supper Floods of 2010 are Unique
1. Prolonged peaks
2. Infrastructure damages
3. Huge spread outside the flood plains – reaching
up to 50% of the Lower Indus
4. Secondary damages
5. Drainage failures?
Need to Identify factors leading to huge storage
of water inside the basin (about 40% of the 2
weeks floods)
 Climate Change or Historical
variability?
1. Drastic change in rainfall quantities
and pattern
2. Sea temperature rises
3. Sea Level rises
4. Some of the glaciers are melting
5. Deforestation in catchments
continued
6. Decrease in snow cover area in
Jehlum and Chenab river catchments
Table 3.2: Possible impacts of climate change, projections to the
mid- to late 21st century (2008)
 Phenomenon  Likeli Agriculture, Water resources Other
trend hood forestry,
ecosystems
Heavy  Very Crop damages, Contamination, Death,
Precipitation likely soil erosion, water quality injuries,
Events, inability to water supply disruption of
Higher cultivate settlements,
Frequency waterlogging infrastructure
Area affected  Likely Land degradation, More widespread  health,
by drought low yields water stress diseases, food
increases livestock risks, shortage,
wildfires migration
Intense tropical  Likely Damages to crops disruption of Death,
cyclone activity trees and public water injuries, local
increases coral reefs supply disruption,
Power outages migration
Adaptation and vulnerability

Climate change pose two major water management challenges;

increasing water stress and increasing risk of floods. Adaptation options
to cope with these challenges are well documented (IPCC, 2001b).
Reservoirs and dykes are likely to remain the main structural
measures to protect against floods in highland and lowland areas,
respectively (Hooijer et al., 2004). However, other planned adaptation
options are becoming more popular, such as expanded floodplain areas
(Helms et al., 2002), emergency flood reservoirs (Somlyódy, 2002),
preserved areas for flood water (Silander et al., 2006), and flood
forecasting and warning systems, especially for flash floods. Multi-
purpose reservoirs serve as an adaptation measure for both floods and
droughts. [WGII 12.5.1]
To adapt to increasing water stress, the most common and planned
strategies remain supply-side measures such as impounding rivers to
form in-stream reservoirs (Santos et al.,2002; Iglesias et al., 2005).
However, new reservoir construction is being increasingly
constrained in Europe by environmental regulations (Barreira, 2004)
and high investment costs (Schröter et al., 2005).
Water => energy => GHG footprints

WATER FOOTPRINT

WATER ENERGY

ENERGY FOOTPRINT

GHG FOOTPRINT

CLIMATE

- an inter-related system!

(April 2008 T.J.Clausen, Niels Ipsen UNEP-DHI

 Mitigation Options

1.Protect Resource Base: Forests, Water and

Energy conservation

2.Clean energy production

3.Water Quality and Waste Management

4.Groundwater Aquifer management

5.Climate friendly agriculture

 Adaptation

Protect natural resilience of the system –

flood plains, water ways and land
management
Control/minimize economic activities in
high risk zones
Define sustainable resource base for
utilization of water, energy and
ecosystems
 Adaptation – not an issue of natural
potential, but planning and
implementation

• Vision - from drought to the floods

• Policy - knowledge, integration, output
oriented
• Strategies – efficient, non repetitive, result
oriented, defining responsibilities

• Implementation - clear target setting,

accounting procedures
THANK YOU