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Chapter 14

Aggregate Planning

Operations Management
Dr. Achmad Hidayat.,SE.,M.Com.,M.hil
Lecture Outline

 The Sales and Operations Planning


Process
 Strategies for Adjusting Capacity
 Strategies for Managing Demand
 Quantitative Techniques for Aggregate
Planning
 Hierarchical Nature of Planning
 Aggregate Planning for Services

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-2


Introduction

 Perencanaan long term plan perusahaan dijabarkan


lebih lanjut dalam middle plan.
 Perencanaan ini berupa business plan yang berisikan
rencana kegiatan perusahaan dalam jangka waktu 3
sampai 18 bulan yang akan datang.
 Business Plan ini didasarkan atas prakiraan kondisi
perekonomian, industri, ataupun persaingan masa
datang, dan mencerminkan strategi perusahaan dalam
mencapai sasaran

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-4


The Role of the Aggregate Plan

© Wiley 2009
Capacity Planning, Aggregate Planning, Master Schedule, and Short-
Term Scheduling

Capacity Planning Long-term


1. Facility Size
2. Equipment Procurement

Aggregate Planning
1. Facility Utilization Intermediate-term
2. Personnel needs
3. Subcontracting

Master Schedule
1. MRP Intermediate-term
2. Disaggregation of master plan

Short-term Scheduling
1. Work center loading Short-term
2. Job sequencing
What is Aggregate Plan?

 Bagian rencana bisnis yang menyangkut


kegiatan produksi atau operasi disebut rencana
produksi atau perencanaan agregat
 Agregat plan merupakan jantung dari
perencanaan jangka menengah.
 Tujuannya untuk mengembangkan suatu
rencana produksi secara menyeluruh yang
flexibel dan optimal.

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-7


What is Aggregate Plan?

Proses agregasi (aggregation) ialah


pengelompokan beberapa jenis item
menjadi product family.
Proses disagregasi (disaggregation)
adalah proses derivasi product family
menjadi item.

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-8


Aggregate
Planning
Hirarki produk
 Type: kelompok beberapa product families.
 Product family: kelompok beberapa items.
 Item: produk akhir individual yang dibeli (digunakan) oleh
konsumen.
 Biasanya hirarki tersebut dimulai dari product family,
karena bila sebuah pabrik membuat lebih dari satu jenis
type maka operasi perusahaan itu akan menjadi sangat
kompleks.
 Pengelompokan sejumlah item ke dalam sebuah product
family dilakukan dengan teknik Group Technology (GT).
Contoh Proses Agregasi

IBM memproduksi komputer laptop, desktop, notebook


dan mesin teknologi tinggi lainnya. Proses agregasi
adalah pengelompokkan jenis – jenis komputer tersebut
ke dalam family product (misalnya famili komputer).
Sebuah rumah sakit bisa melakukan agregasi jasa yang
diberikan menjadi jumlah perawat atau dokter yang
dibutuhkan.
PT. Telkomsel bisa melakukan agregasi jumlah unit
penjualan kartu prabayar (kartu simpati) dan kartu
pascabayar (kartu hallo) menjadi jumlah rupiah
penjualan yang diterima. Kartu hallo juga terdiri dari
beberapa item.
 Chase Strategies
 Match demand during the planning horizon by either
 Vary workforce or vary output rate
PURE
STRAT  Level Strategies

EGIES
 Maintain a constant workforce level or constant output
rate during the planning horizon
 Constant workforce or constant output rate

 Mixed Strategies
 Combined several strategies
Level Production Chase Demand
Demand Demand
Production
Production
Units

Units

Time Tim
e
Strategies for Managing Demand

 Pergeseran permintaan
dalam periode waktu lain
 Incentives
 Sales promotions
 Advertising campaigns
 Menawarkan produk atau
layanan dengan pola
permintaan counter-
cyclical
 Partnering with suppliers
to reduce information
distortion along the supply
chain

14-14
Quantitative Techniques For AP

 Pure Strategies
 Mixed Strategies
 Linear Programming
 Transportation Method
 Other Quantitative
Techniques

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-15


Pure Strategies
Example: QUARTER SALES FORECAST (LB)
Spring 80,000
Summer 50,000
Fall 120,000
Winter 150,000
Hiring cost = $100 per worker
Firing cost = $500 per worker
Inventory carrying cost = $0.50 pound per quarter
Regular production cost per pound = $2.00
Production per employee = 1,000 pounds per quarter
Beginning work force = 100 workers

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-16


Level Production Strategy
Level production
(50,000 + 120,000 + 150,000 + 80,000)
= 100,000 pounds
4

SALES PRODUCTION
QUARTER FORECAST PLAN INVENTORY
Spring 80,000 100,000 20,000
Summer 50,000 100,000 70,000
Fall 120,000 100,000 50,000
Winter 150,000 100,000 0
400,000 140,000
Cost of Level Production Strategy
(400,000 X $2.00) + (140,00 X $.50) = $870,000

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-17


Chase Demand Strategy
SALES PRODUCTION WORKERS WORKERS WORKERS
QUARTER FORECAST PLAN NEEDED HIRED FIRED
Spring 80,000 80,000 80 0 20
Summer 50,000 50,000 50 0 30
Fall 120,000 120,000 120 70 0
Winter 150,000 150,000 150 30 0
100 50

Cost of Chase Demand Strategy


(400,000 X $2.00) + (100 x $100) + (50 x $500) = $835,000

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-18


Mixed Strategy

 Combination of Level Production and


Chase Demand strategies
 Examples of management policies
 no more than x% of the workforce can be
laid off in one quarter
 inventory levels cannot exceed (up to) x
dollars
 Many industries may simply shut down
manufacturing during the low demand
season and schedule employee
vacations during that time

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-19


General Linear Programming (LP)
Model
 LP gives an optimal solution, but demand and
costs must be linear
 Let
 Wt = workforce size for period t
 Pt =units produced in period t
 It =units in inventory at the end of period t
 Ft =number of workers fired for period t
 Ht = number of workers hired for period t

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-20


LP MODEL
Minimize Z = $100 (H1 + H2 + H3 + H4)
+ $500 (F1 + F2 + F3 + F4)
+ $0.50 (I1 + I2 + I3 + I4)
+ $2 (P1 + P2 + P3 + P4)
Subject to
P1 - I1 = 80,000 (1)
Demand I1 + P2 - I2 = 50,000 (2)
constraints I2 + P3 - I3 = 120,000 (3)
I3 + P4 - I4 = 150,000 (4)
Production 1000 W1 = P1 (5)
constraints 1000 W2 = P2 (6)
1000 W3 = P3 (7)
1000 W4 = P4 (8)
100 + H1 - F1 = W1 (9)
Work force W 1 + H2 - F 2 = W 2 (10)
constraints W 2 + H3 - F 3 = W 3 (11)
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-21
Transportation Method

EXPECTED REGULAR OVERTIME SUBCONTRACT


QUARTER DEMAND CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY
1 900 1000 100 500
2 1500 1200 150 500
3 1600 1300 200 500
4 3000 1300 200 500

Regular production cost per unit $20


Overtime production cost per unit $25
Subcontracting cost per unit $28
Inventory holding cost per unit per period $3
Beginning inventory 300 units

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-22


Transportation Tableau
PERIOD OF USE

Unused
PERIOD OF PRODUCTION 1 2 3 4 Capacity Capacity

Beginning 0 3 6 9
Inventory 300 — — — 300
20 23 26 29
1 Regular 600 300 100 — 1000
25 28 31 34
Overtime 100 100
28 31 34 37
Subcontract 500
20 23 26
2 Regular 1200 — — 1200
25 28 31
Overtime 150 150
28 31 34
Subcontract 250 250 500
20 23
3 Regular 1300 — 1300
25 28
Overtime 200 — 200
28 31
Subcontract 500 500
20
4 Regular 1300 1300
25
Overtime 200 200
28
Subcontract 500 500

Demand 900 1500 1600 3000 250

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-23


Burruss’ Production Plan

REGULAR SUB- ENDING


PERIOD DEMAND PRODUCTION OVERTIME CONTRACT INVENTORY

1 900 1000 100 0 500


2 1500 1200 150 250 600
3 1600 1300 200 500 1000
4 3000 1300 200 500 0
Total 7000 4800 650 1250 2100

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-24


Hierarchical Nature of Planning
Production Capacity Resource
Items Planning Planning Level

Product lines Sales and Resource


Operations requirements Plants
or families
Plan plan

Master Rough-cut Critical


Individual
production capacity work
products
schedule plan centers

Material Capacity All


Components requirements requirements work
plan plan centers

Shop Input/
Manufacturing Individual
floor output
operations machines
schedule control

 Disaggregation: process of breaking an aggregate plan into more detailed plans


Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-25
Aggregate Planning in Services

Controlling the cost of labor is critical


1. Accurate scheduling of labor-hours to
assure quick response to customer
demand
2. An on-call labor resource to cover
unexpected demand
3. Flexibility of individual worker skills
4. Flexibility in rate of output or hours of
work
Five Service Scenarios

 Restaurants
 Smoothing the production process
 Determining the optimal workforce
size
 Hospitals
 Responding to patient demand
Five Service Scenarios

 National Chains of Small Service


Firms
 Planning done at national level and
at local level
 Miscellaneous Services
 Plan human resource requirements
 Manage demand
Aggregate Planning for Services

 Kebanyakan layanan tidak dapat


diinventarisasi
Permintaan untuk layanan sulit untuk
memprediksi
Kapasitas juga sulit untuk memprediksi
Kemampuan pelayanan harus disediakan di
tempat yang tepat dan waktu
Buruh biasanya merupakan sumber yang
paling menghambat untuk layanan
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-29
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2009 John Wiley by the use of these
& Sons, Inc. 14-30