Apple ~ Daily (Log) with Support

Last week saw the “greatest company and stock in the history of mankind,”
Apple, blow out all earnings and revenues estimates for the quarter. The
stock promptly traded down for the rest of the week.

Apple is quite likely the most “over-owned” stock amongst hedge funds and retail investors.
Therefore, it will be the most vulnerable to elevator moves down. People who are “long”
AAPL stock should pay close attention to the 320-322 zone. That’s the area of the 23.6%
retracement of the most recent advance as well as classic chart support. A daily close below
320 would suggest a move down $279/share, the next most obvious area of chart support.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Daily (Log) with Weekly Support and Resistance

-5-

(b)

REPRINTED from 1/17/2011 (d)

-3-
(5)

(3)
(e)
(c)
-4-
(1)
(4) (a)
-1-
(5)
(3) (2)

(1) Patience, on initiating shorts, was once again rewarded last week as this
overextended market continued to grind out shorts like chuck beef. This
(4) particular wave count is now “out of time” with -1- = -5- targets at 1291 and
1310 (-1- = -5- in %). Additionally, the last few weeks of pricing action is
beginning to look more like a “corrective” channel higher--it’s not of an
“impulsive” nature.
(2)

The bias remains to sell (initiate shorts) on signs of weakness. At this point the
-2- first level of support lies at 1262. Thus, we’re raising “sell stops” to 1260. The
much more important level remains much lower at 1226. So, bulls can
continue to “feel comfortable” all the way down to 1226.
b

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Daily (Log) with Weekly Support and Resistance
c
-5-

Mr. Market is struggling to

remain within this channel
(b)

(d)
-3-
(5)

(3)
(e)
(c)
-4-
(1) (a)
(4)
-1-
(5)
(3) (2)

(1)
Time is out for this particular wave count. The theory here would be that we
just witnessed the conclusion of a “terminal” Wave -5- and, so, the c-wave has
(4)
concluded. I am adjusting “Sell Stop” levels in accordance with this concept. I
will sell, to initiate shorts, on a break of 1271, risking only 20% of Max. Short.

(2)

-2-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 March e-Mini Futures ~ 60 min. chart.

c Trying to examine waves on shorter charts is a dangerous endeavor--there’s a lot of ‘noise’ on a

-5- “small scale” intraday chart that can lead to “false reads.” However, we’re at the point of the larger
[2] wave progression where we want to be on the “lookout” for impulsions lower. The S&P futures
are sporting a move lower that “CAN” be interpreted as an “impulsive” wave down. In a five wave
move with a “small” first wave, the final fifth wave will often occupy 38.2% of the entire wave--that’s
what this looks like here.
[1] [w]?
[.c]

[.a]
[4]

[x]?
[3]
[.b]

The bounce higher looks “corrective” in nature. I’m favoring

a “double” count [w-x-y] of some kind. More choppy
[5] consolidation in the week ahead would not surprise.
(1) or (a)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ 10 min. chart. The unfortunate news for S&P 500 bears is that no such “impulse” can bee seen on
the “cash” chart. It’s possible to interpret such a pattern, as I’ve done here, but it’s a
c “reach.” Day-trading short sellers should use 1286 as a “stop” on any fresh shorts.

-5-

(2)?
[2]

[4]
[.2]

[3]

[.1] [.4]

There’s no good “extended wave” within this Wave

[5]. Thus, this a messy “impulse” to say the least. [.3]

[.5]
[5]
(1) or (a)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DXY 180 min. with Weekly Support and Resistance Levels

REPRINTED from 1/17/2011

a
-c- -b-

(a)

(b)

(a)
(b)
-a-
-a-
-c-?
b
-b- Last week’s foray at “scale buying” the DXY was a loser. We bought 80% of a Max
Long at an average price of 80.10 and was promptly stopped out below the 61.8%
retrace at 79.70 for a 0.5% loss. Oh Well. We remain 20% of a Max Long and will
probably have that posture for “a while.” That’s a core long position.

The various waves all look “corrective” in a nature at this point.

Some sort of test of the 60-80% retrace (77.95-76.79) would not
surprise. We’re staying away from any more “toe dipping” in the
DXY until we get another “impulsive” looking wave higher.

75.63

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DXY 180 min. with Weekly Support and Resistance Levels

a
-c-
-b-

(a)

(b)

(2)?

(4)?

(a) (1)?
-a- (b)
-a-
(3)?

-b- (5)?
-c-?
b

Last week we were anticipating a test of the 77.95-76.79 zone. DXY didn’t disappoint. The whole wave count
from the 75.63 remains messy. Bulls are hoping that we’re finishing a -c- wave lower. If we are seeing a little
five wave move down, and confidence is low on that count, then it should find support before 77.95. Just
like last week, we’ll remain on the sidelines here as we nurse a core 20% long position.

75.63 Bulls need to break this thing back above 78.95 to regain the advantage.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold (Feb11 Futures) Daily

REPRINTED from 1/17/2011 1424.4

Last week’s commentary wasn’t completely useless. This rounded top looking
pattern was identified and 1397 was pegged as key resistance (61.8% retrace off the
1424.4 high). The market was repelled in front of that resistance level as bears seem
to be wresting control away from bulls. 1377.8 and 1392.9 look like good R1 and R2
levels in the week ahead as Gold looks like it wants to visit the 1320s.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold (Feb11 Futures) Daily

Head
Left Right
Shoulder Shoulder

Left
Shoulder Right
Shoulder

I heard some people on CNBC talking about this insipient head and shoulder top on
Gold--which means that we’re likely not see it develop the way we “think” it should
develop. Outlined here would be something “textbook.”

We said last week that gold looked like it wanted to trade lower. It’s not disappointing
as our R1 from last week held perfectly at $1,379. New shorts should consider
lowering their stops to $1357 now. The $1,320’s should create support for gold. If it
doesn’t, then gold would be on a “glide path” to $1,265/oz.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

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opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
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