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Point and Interval Estimates

 Estimasi titik adalah nilai tunggal pada sampel


(statistik) untuk mengestimasi nilai populasi
(parameter).

 Interval kepercayaan adalah kisaran nilai dimana


terletak parameter populasi
Areas Under the Normal Curve
Jika kita mengambil observasi
dari populasi terdistribusi Between:
normal, nilai yang terambil
memiliki kemungkinan
± 1  - 68.26%
68.26%) terletak dalam ± 2  - 95.44%
interval
(µ-1σ, µ+1σ). ± 3  - 99.74%
P((µ-1σ <x<µ+1σ) =0.6826.

µ-2σ µ µ+2σ
µ-3σ µ-1σ µ+1σ µ+3σ
P(µ-1σ <x<µ+1σ) vs P(x-1σ <µ <x+1σ)

 P(µ-1σ <x<µ+1σ) adalah probabilitas bahwa x yang


didapatkan dari sampel akan berada di antara interval (µ-
1σ, µ+1σ).

 P(x-1σ <µ <x+1σ) adalah probabilitas bahwa rata-rata


populasi akan terletak di antara (x-1σ, x+1σ).

P(µ-1σ <x<µ+1σ)
= P(µ-1σ -µ-x <x-µ-x<µ +1σ -µ-x)
= P(-1σ -x <-µ<1σ -x)
= P(-(-1σ -x )>-(-µ)>-(1σ -x))
= P(1σ +x >µ>-1σ +x)
= P(x-1σ <µ <x+1σ)
Elements of Confidence Interval Estimation
Probabilitas bahwa parameter populasi
terletak di dalam interval.

Confidence Interval

Confidence Limit Confidence Limit


(Lower) (Upper)

Sample Statistic
Confidence Intervals

X  Z   X  Z   x_
X n

X
  2.58  1.645   1.645   2.58
X X X X
 1.96  1.96
X X
90% Samples
95% Samples
99% Samples
Tingkat kepercayaan
1. Probabilitas bahwa parameter populasi yang
tidak diketahui berada dalam interval
2. Dinotasikan (1 -  tingkat kepercayaan
 adalah tingkat signifikansi: probabilitas
bahwa parameter tidak terdapat dalam
interval
3. Nilai yang biasa dipakai 99%, 95%, 90%
Interpreting Confidence Intervals

 Suatu interval kepercayaan bisa mengandung


parameter populasi maupun tidak.
 Untuk interval kepercayaan 95%, jika seluruh
rata-rata sampel yang mungkin bisa
didapatkan, maka 95% interval kepercayaan
dari semua sampel itu akan mengandung rata-
rata populasi.
Intervals & Level of Confidence

_
Sampling x
Distribution
of Mean
/2 1 - /2
_
X
x = 
Intervals (1 - ) % of
Extend from Intervals
Contain  .
X  Z  to
X  % Do Not.
X  Z 
X
Large Number of Intervals
Point Estimates and Interval Estimates

X (Z )  X (Z ) 


 /2 X  /2 n

 The factors that determine the width of a confidence


interval are:
1. The size of the sample (n) from which the
statistic is calculated.
2. The variability in the population, usually
estimated by s.
3. The desired level of confidence.
Point and Interval Estimates

 Jika standar deviasi populasi diketahui, atau


 Jika sampel minimal 30
 Gunakan distribusi z
s
X z
n
Point and Interval Estimates

 Jika standar deviasi populasi tidak diketahui dan


sampel kurang dari 30
 Gunakan distribusi t
s
X t
n
Student’s t-Distribution
 distribusi t adalah sekelompok distribusi yang
simetrik dan berbentuk lonceng seperti
distribusi normal standar tapi dengan area
lebih besar di ekor. Tiap distribusit ditentukan
oleh derajat kebebasannya (degrees of
freedom – df). Semakin besar df, semakin
distribusi t mendekati distribusi normal.
Student’s t-Distribution

Standard
Normal
Bell-Shaped
t (df = 13)
Symmetric
t (df = 5)
‘Fatter’ Tails

Z
t
0
Student’s t Table

Assume:
/2 n=3
Upper Tail Area df = n - 1 = 2
 = .10
df .25 .10 .05 /2 =.05

1 1.000 3.078 6.314

2 0.817 1.886 2.920 .05


3 0.765 1.638 2.353
0 t
t Values 2.920
Derajat Kebebasan
 Degrees of freedom (df) adalah jumlah nilai
data independen tersedia untuk mengestimasi
standar deviasi populasi. jika k parameter
harus diestimasi sebelum standar deviasi
populasi dapat dihitung dari sampel sebesar n,
maka derajat kebebasan sama dengan n - k.
t-Values

x
t
s
where:
x = Sample mean n
 = Population mean
s = Sample standard deviation
n = Sample size
Estimation Example
Mean ( Unknown)
A random sample of n = 25 has X = 50 and S = 8. Set
up a 95% confidence interval estimate for .

S S
X  t  / 2, n 1     X  t  / 2, n 1 
n n
8 8
50  2.0639     50  2.0639 
25 25
46.69    53.30
Standard Error of the Sample Means

 Jika  tidak diketahui dan n  30, standar deviasi


sampel, s, digunakan untuk memperkirakan
standar deviasi populasi:

s
sx 
n
95% and 99% Confidence Intervals for
the sample mean

 The 95% and 99% confidence intervals are


constructed as follows:
 95% CI for the sample mean is given by
s
  1.96
n
 99% CI for the sample mean is given by
s
  2.58
n
95% and 99% Confidence Intervals for µ

 The 95% and 99% confidence intervals are


constructed as follows:
 95% CI for the population mean is given by
s
X  1.96
n
 99% CI for the population mean is given by
s
X  2.58
n
Constructing General Confidence Intervals
for µ

 In general, a confidence interval for the mean is


computed by:

s
X z
n
EXAMPLE 3

 The Dean of the Business School wants to


estimate the mean number of hours worked
per week by students. A sample of 49 students
showed a mean of 24 hours with a standard
deviation of 4 hours. What is the population
mean?

 The value of the population mean is not known.


Our best estimate of this value is the sample
mean of 24.0 hours. This value is called a point
estimate.
Example 3 continued

Find the 95 percent confidence interval for the population mean.

s 4
X  1.96  24.00  1.96
n 49
 24.00  1.12

The confidence limits range from 22.88 to 25.12.


About 95 percent of the similarly constructed
intervals include the population parameter.
Confidence Interval for a Population
Proportion

 confidence interval untuk proporsi populasi


diestimasi oleh:

p(1  p )
pz
n
EXAMPLE 4

 A sample of 500 executives who own their own


home revealed 175 planned to sell their homes
and retire to Arizona. Develop a 98%
confidence interval for the proportion of
executives that plan to sell and move to
Arizona.
(.35 )(.65 )
.35  2.33  .35  .0497
500
Finite-Population Correction Factor

 Untuk populasi yang diketahui jumlahnya (N),


dengan sampel sebesar n, standard errors of
the sample means perlu disesuaikan:
 Standard error of the sample means:

 N n
x 
n N 1
Finite-Population Correction Factor

 Standard error of the sample proportions:


p(1  p ) N n
p 
n N 1

 Penyesuaian ini disebut finite-population


correction factor.
 If n/N < .05, the finite-population correction
factor dapat diabaikan.
EXAMPLE 5

 Given the information in EXAMPLE 4,


construct a 95% confidence interval for the
mean number of hours worked per week by
the students if there are only 500 students
on campus.
 Because n/N = 49/500 = .098 which is
greater than 05, we use the finite population
correction factor.

4 500  49
24  1.96( )( )  24.00  1.0648
49 500  1
Menentukan Besar Sampel

 Terdapat 3 faktor yang menentukan besar


sampel:
 Tingkat kepercayaan.
 Kesalahan maksimum yang diijinkan.
 Variasi populasi.
Menentukan Besar Sampel

X (Z )  X (Z ) 


 /2 X  /2 n

 Besar sampel (n):


2
s z*s
z* E n  
n  E 

where : E is the kesalahan yang dibolehkan, z adalah nilai z


terkait tingkat kepercayaan yang dipilih, dan s adalah
standar deviasi sampel pendahuluan.
EXAMPLE 6

 A consumer group would like to estimate the


mean monthly electricity charge for a single
family house in July within $5 using a 99
percent level of confidence. Based on similar
studies the standard deviation is estimated to
be $20.00. How large a sample is required?

2
 (2.58)(20) 
n   107
 5 
Sample Size for Proportions

 Menentukan besar sampel dalam kasus proporsi:

2
Z
n  p(1  p ) 
E 
 p adalah proporsi yang diestimasi berdasar
pengalaman lalu atau survey pendahuluan; z
adalah nilai z terkait tingkat kepercayaan yang
dipilih; E adalah kesalahan maksimum yang
ditoleransi.
EXAMPLE 7

 The American Kennel Club wanted to


estimate the proportion of children that
have a dog as a pet. If the club wanted the
estimate to be within 3% of the population
proportion, how many children would they
need to contact? Assume a 95% level of
confidence and that the club estimated
that 30% of the children have a dog as a
pet. 2
 1.96 
n  (.30)(.70)   897
 .03 
Chapter Nine
Estimation and Confidence Intervals

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