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‡ 
‡ Sales Potential and
Sales Forecasting
‡ Different Methods for the
above
‡ Converting industry
forecast into company
sales forecast
‡ Evaluation of forecasts

 

‡ A sales potential is an estimate of


the maximum possible sales
opportunities present in a particular
market segment open to a
specified company selling a good
or service during a stated future
period
‡ To illustrate, an estimate of the
number of low- priced pocket
cameras that might be sold in San
Mateo County, California, during
the calendar year 1987 by the
Eastman Kodak Company would
be the 1987 San Mateo County
sales potential for Eastman Kodak
low- price pocket cameras

     



 

‡ In other words, Sales potentials


are quantitative estimates of the
maximum possible sales
opportunities present in
particular market segments
open to a specified company
selling a good or service during
a stated future period
‡ They are derived from market
potentials after analyses of
historical market share
relationships and adjustments
for changes in companies¶ and
competitors¶ selling strategies
and practices

   
 

‡A Sales potential indicates


sales opportunities available to
a particular manufacturer,
such as to Eastman Kodak
Company, while Market
potential indicates sales
opportunities available to an
entire industry, say steel
industry

     





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‡ Jury of Executive Opinion

· Ô  Ô 


‡ Poll of Sales Force Opinion


‡ Projection of Past Sales

· Ô    

·   

· 
     

‡ Survey of Customer¶s Buying Plans


‡ Regression Analysis
‡ Econometric Model Building and Simulation

     


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‡ There are two steps in this method:
i. High- ranking executives estimate probable sales, and,
ii. An average estimate is calculated
‡ The assumption is that the executives are well informed about the industry
outlook and the company¶s market position, capabilities and marketing
program
‡ All should support their estimates with factual material and explain their
rationales

     


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‡ Companies using the jury of executive
opinion method do so because of the following
reasons:
1. This is a quick and easy way to turn out a
forecast
2. This is a way to pool the experience and
judgment of well- informed people
3. This may be the only feasible approach if
the company is so young that it has not yet
accumulated the experience to use other
forecasting methods
4. This method may be used when adequate
sales and market statistics are missing, or
when these figures have not yet been put
into the form required for more
sophisticated forecasting methods

     


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‡ Several years ago, researchers at


the Rand Corporation developed a
technique for predicting the future that
is called the Delphi Technique
‡ This is a version of the Jury of
Executive Opinion Method in which
those giving opinions are selected for
their ³expertise´
‡ The panel of experts responds to a
sequence of questionnaires in which
the responses to one questionnaire
are used to produce the next
questionnaire
‡Thus information available to some
and not to other experts is
disseminated to all, enabling all to
base their final forecasts on ³all
available´ information

     





# 
 


‡ In the Poll of Sales Force Opinion


Method, often tagged ³the grass-
roots approach´, individual sales
personnel forecast sales for their
territories; then individual forecasts
are combined and modified, as
management thinks necessary, to
form the company sales forecast
‡ This approach appeal to practical
sales managers because forecasting
responsibility is assigned to those
who produce the results
‡ Refer Page No. 44 of Cundifff and
Still Text for strengths and
weaknesses of Poll of Sales Force
Opinion Method

     0



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‡ Next year¶s sale= this year¶s sales/


last year¶s sales
‡ Ô   
  A statistical
procedure for studying historical
sales data
‡     A
statistical technique for short-
range sales forecasting
‡ Next year¶s sale= a(this year¶s
sale)+ (1-a) (this year¶s forecast)

     


 
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‡ Here, customers are asked about their future buying plans


‡ Industrial marketers use this approach more than consumer goods
marketers, because it is easiest to use where the potential market
consists of small numbers of customers and prospects, substantial sales
are made to individual accounts, the manufacturer sells direct to users,
and customers are concentrated in a few geographical areas( all the more
typical of industrial than consumer marketing)


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‡ Regression Analysis is a statistical


process and, as used in sales
forecasting, determines and
measures the association between
company sales and other variables
‡ It involves fitting an equation to
explain sales fluctuations in terms of
related and presumably causal
variables, substituting for these
variables values considered likely
during the period to be forecasted,
and solving for sales

     


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‡ There are three major steps in forecasting sales through regression


analysis:
1. Identify variables causally related to company sales
2. Determine or estimate the values of these variables related to sales
3. Derive the sales forecast from these estimates

     


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