Pre-Budget Consultation 2011-2012

Fiscal Challenge

• New Brunswick facing monumental fiscal

challenge
• Unprecedented deficits and increases in net debt
projected
• Financial circumstances not sustainable
• Immediate action required

Options to Meet the Fiscal Challenge

• Reduce spending on government programs /

services
• Reduce capital spending
• Increase revenues (e.g. taxes, fees, licences,
royalties) to pay for services
• Evaluate the sale of government assets
•
Where the Money Comes From
2010-2011 Budget

Federal Transfers 41%

Own-source Revenues
2010-2011 Budget

HST 23.6%

PIT 27.7%

CIT 4.4%

Prov. Property Tax 9.8%

Other 21.0%

Return on Investment 8.1%

Sinking Fund Earnings 5.4%
Surplus / (Deficit)
($millions)
Youth Population (0-19 years) Declining
K-12 Enrolment and School District
Operations Funding, 1991 to 2009
 Population by Restigouche
County -12.9%
Gloucester
% Change Madawaska -9.2%
-8.0%
2000-2009
Victoria
-9.7% Northumberland
-8.3%

N.B. Kent
-0.1% Carleton -2.2%
-2.9%
Westmorland
Significant Gain (5% to 12%) +11.5%

ry nbu
York -6.7%
+8.4%

Su
Minimal Gain (1% to 4%) Albert

ns
+5.1%

ee
+1.5% +3.9%

Qu
Minimal Loss (-4% to -2%)
Kings
Significant Loss (-13% to -6%) Charlotte ai nt
-4.0% S n -2.3%
Joh

Source: Statistics Canada and N.B. Finance

Change in New Brunswick Population by
Age - Working Age and Senior

Age Group 2010 2020 Difference

15 to 64 518,900 487,400 -31,500

65 and over 119,600 170,800 +51,200

Ratio 4.3 to 1 2.9 to 1

 Number of Immigrants – Actual and
Projected
New Brunswick
Manitoba

Source: Population Growth Secretariat

 New Brunswick Skills Gap

No demand for
Level 1 skills Demand
Supply

Literacy Skill

Source: Understanding the Literacy Market in New Brunswick: A Segmentation Analysis, Data Angel, 2009
 University Degrees Granted
per 1,000 Population, 2006

Source: Statistics Canada Table 477-0014 - University degrees, diplomas and certificates granted, by program level,
Classification of Instructional Programs, Primary Grouping (CIP_PG) and sex, annual.
 University Educated Population, 2009

22 % 22 %
19 % 20 %
18 %
17 % 17 %
14 % 15 % 15 %
13 %

Source: Population 15+. Source: Statistics Canada Table 282-0003 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by educational
attainment, sex and age group, unadjusted for seasonality, monthly.
 N.B. Productivity Relative to Canada
Based on GDP per Hour Worked
Canada=100

New Brunswick

Source: Data for 1987-2005 - Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS)
Data for 2006-2008 - Statistics Canada CANSIM, Table 384-0002 - expenditure-based GDP and Table 383-0010 - Labour statistics
Data for 2009* - Estimated based on GDP at basic prices
Senior Population (65+ years) Increasing
Government Health Expenditure per
Capita, 2008
 Family Physicians and Specialists
Family physicians – New Brunswick: 99 family
physicians for every 100,000 people, (approx 1 per 1,000)

National average: 99 family physicians per 100,000

people (1 per 1,000).

Specialist Physicians – New Brunswick: 86 specialist
physicians per 100,000 of population (1 per 1,163).
1 800 lits
Nationally average: 94 per 100,000 people (1 per 1,064).

Source : New Brunswick Health Council – Conversation Guide – Phase I

 Other human resources facts:
Staffing in New Brunswick (2007) New Brunswick Canadian average Range
(rate per 100,000 population) average
Registered Nurses - RNs 1028 778 681 to 1,097
Licensed Practical Nurses - LPNs 364 210 131 to 511
Pharmacists 89 86 55 to 117
Dentists 38 58 33 to 167
Dental Hygienists 44 63 6 to 75
Dieticians 44 27 22 to 51
Occupational Therapists 36 37 6 to 49
Physiotherapists 58 50 36 to 96
Chiropractors 8 22 6 to 29
1 800 lits
Optometrists 14 13 10 to 16
Psychologists 43 49 17 to 193

Important note: In 2007-2008, New Brunswick had 4.1 hospital beds available per 1,000 people.
The Canadian average is 3.2 beds available per 1,000

Source : New Brunswick Health Council – Conversation Guide – Phase I

 Seniors Occupying Acute Care Hospital
Beds
2009 2015 2021

23%
535 beds 48%
1,215 100%
1,120 beds
beds 2,335 beds
1,800 beds

Alternative Level of Acute Care Clients

Care (ALC) Seniors

Source: Department of Social Development

 Nursing Home Waiting List – 1990 to 2010

Source: Department of Social Development

 Size of New Brunswick Government -
Full-time and part-time employees
Part I Part II Part III*
down 820 up 1,000 up 5,000
*Part III
figures do not
include the
approximately
900 people
employed by
Ambulance
New
Brunswick.

na na

FT= FT= FT=

PT= PT= PT=

Source: Office of Human Resources

 Wellness Crisis in New Brunswick

 Chronic disease rates (e.g. diabetes, high blood pressure,

heart disease) rising yearly


 34% of NB children/youth are overweight or obese



 63% of NB adults are overweight or obese



 71% of NB youth not eating enough fruits and vegetables



 93% of NB children/youth considered inactive



 21% of New Brunswickers smoke

-
•

Source: Department of Wellness, Culture and Sport; Statistics Canada

Online Pre-Budget Consultation
• As of Feb. 3, more than 2,840 completed questionnaires
and more than 200 e-mail submissions
• Top three priorities: Health care, economic development
and job creation, and K-12 education
• Almost half of respondents prefer combination of tax
increases and spending cuts
• Want government to be more efficient (e.g. streamline,
reduce administration, regionalize service delivery)
• Balance the budget within four years

2011-2012 Pre-Budget Consultation

• Government committed to managing finances

responsibly and returning to balanced budgets
• New Brunswickers need to be part of decision-
making process:
– What are your priorities for the 2011-2012 Budget?
– Over what time frame should the province return to
balanced budgets?
– What are your proposed solutions to address the
fiscal challenge?

Provide Your Feedback and Suggestions
• Online Questionnaire at:
 http://www.gnb.ca/0024/index-e.asp

• Written submissions by mail

 2011-2012 Pre-Budget Consultation

 Minister of Finance

 P.O. Box 6000, Fredericton, N.B.

 E3B 5H1

• By fax: 506-457-4989
• By e-mail: wwwfin@gnb.ca
 Deadline is February 2, 2011
