-RANDOM VARIABLES
&
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
SITI SUHAIDAH BINTI SAHAB
DEPT. OF BUILDING
SHAH ALAM
OBJECTIVES
Describe and provide examples of both discrete
and continuous random variables.
Explain the difference between discrete and
continuous probability distributions.
Calculate expected values and variances and use
the Normal table.
OUTLINE
Introduction
Random Variables
Probability Distributions
Discrete Probability Distributions
Expected Value of DPD
Variance of DPD
Binomial Distribution
Normal Distribution
INTRODUCTION
Remove all cards except aces and kings from a
deck, so that only eight cards remain, of which
four are aces and four are kings. From this
abbreviated deck, deal two cards to a friend.
INTRODUCTION
If he looks at his card and announces (truthfully)
that his hand contains an ace, what is the
probability that both his cards are aces?
INTRODUCTION
If he announces instead that one of his cards is the
ace of spades, what is the probability then that
both his cards are aces? Are these two
probabilities the same?
INTRODUCTION
First case:
There are 28 possible `hands' that can be dealt
(choose 2 cards out of 8). Out of these 28 hands,
exactly 6 contain no aces (choose 2 cards out of
4). Hence 28-6=22 contain at least one ace. Our
friend tells us he has an ace, hence he has been
dealt one of these 22 hands. Out of these exactly
6 contain two aces (again choose 2 out of 4).
Therefore he has a probability of 6/22=3/11 of
having two aces.
INTRODUCTION
Second case:
One of his cards is the ace of spades. There are 7
Discrete
Xmas trees trees sold trees sold
Inspect 600 Number Y = number 0,1,2,…,
items acceptable acceptable 600
Send out Number of Z = number of 0,1,2,…,
5,000 sales people people responding 5,000
letters responding
Build an % completedR = % completed 0≤ R≤100
apartment after 4 after 4 months
Continuous
building months
Test the Time bulb S = time bulb 0≤ S≤80,000
lifetime of a lasts-up to burns
light bulb 80,000
(minutes) minutes
RANDOM VARIABLES – (non-numeric)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
4. Agree
3. Neutral
2. Disagree
1. Strongly disagree
DISCRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Example (1) cont’d
The students’ response to this question is summarized below.
Distribution
The expected value or μ (mean), a measure of
central tendency, is computed as weighted
average of the values of the random variable:
EXPECTED VALUE OF DICRETE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example 2
Find the expected value for the instructor evaluation of
ACC325 class.
5
E(X) = X i P(X i) = μ (mean)
i =1
E(X) = μ = 2.9
The expected value of 2.9 implies that the mean response is between
disagree (2) and neutral(3) and that the average response is closer to
neutral , which is 3. Looking at the graph, this is consistent with shape
of the probability function .
VARIANCE OF DICRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Where,
n = number of trials
r = number of successes
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure (1-p)
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
For a binomial distribution, the expected value, or
mean, is:
µ = np
The variance is:
σ 2 = np(1 − p)
The standard deviation is:
2
σ= σ
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
The normal distribution is the most popular and
useful continuous probability distribution.
Specified completely by the mean and standard
deviation
Symmetrical, with the midpoint representing the mean
Values on the X axis are measured in the number of
standard deviations away from the mean.
As the standard deviation becomes larger the curve
flattens.
The total area under the curve is 1.00; half the
area under the normal curve is to the right of this
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
-3 COMMON AREAS UNDER THE CURVE
Three
commonly
used areas
under the
normal curve
are +/- 1, 2
and 3
standard
deviations
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a
standard deviation of 1.
It is also called the z distribution.
A z-value is the distance between a selected value designated X, and the
population mean μ, divided by the population standard deviation, .
The formula is:
X = Value of RV that want to measure
μ = mean of distribution
σ = standard deviation of the distribution
Z = number of standard deviation from X to the mean, μ
Z for any particular X value shows how many standard deviations X is away from
the mean for all X values.
Probability of X value can be refer to Standard Normal Table (Appendix A)
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 4
• If μ = 100, σ = 15, find the probability that the random variable X is less than
130, P(X< 130)
Z = (X-μ) = 130 - 100
σ 15
= 30 = 2 standard deviation
15
§ This mean that the point X is 2.0 standard deviation to the right of the mean. This is
shown in figure below. From Z table, P (X < 130)
= P (Z < 2.00) = 97.7%.
From the graph, this probability
could also have been derived from
the middle graph.
Note that, 1.0 – 0.977
= 0.023
= 2.3%,
which is the area in the right- hand
tail of the curve
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 5
Area = .5
z
0 0.83
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
The Probability of Demand Exceeding 20
Area = .2967
Area = .2033
Area = .5
z
0 .83
The Standard Normal table shows an area of .2967 for the region between the
z = 0 line and the z = .83 line above. The shaded tail area is .5 - .2967 = .
2033. The probability of a stockout is .2033.
THANK YOU…
NEXT WEEK…
DECISION THEORY