Ekonomi Kependudukan

Sesi 1 - Pengantar
 Belajar apa sih?
• Wiki says:
“population economics is the application of
economic analysis to demography, the study of
human populations, including size, growth,
density, distribution, and vital statistics.”
 Apa itu demografi?
• Definisi “kamus”
– The study of statistics such as births, deaths, income, or the incidence
of disease, which illustrate the changing structure of human
populations. (Oxford)
– the statistical study of human populations especially with reference to
size and density, distribution, and vital statistics. (Merriam Webster)

• Definisi Demopaedia
– Demography is the scientific study of human populations primarily
with respect to their size, their structure and their development; it
takes into account the quantitative aspects of their general
characteristics.

Source: https://iussp.org/en/about/what-is-demography
7/9/2012 4
7/9/2012 5
7/9/2012 6
 Komponen demografi
• Fertilitas atau kelahiran menambah jumlah
penduduk
• Mortalitas atau kematian mengurangi
jumlah penduduk
• Migrasi mengurangi atau menambah
jumlah penduduk

7/9/2012 7
 Fertilitas
• Kelahiran ‘hidup’ yang akan menambah beban
pemberian pelayanan dasar
• Dihitung dengan indikator Angka Fertilitas Total
atau TFR, dan dirinci menjadi Angka Fertilitas
Menurut Umur (age specific fertility rate – ASFR)
• Dan juga Rata-rata Anak Lahir Hidup (Children
Ever Born).
• Lihat buku Dasar Dasar Demografi

7/9/2012 8
 Mortalitas
• Angka mortalitas lain adalah
– AKBa angka kematian Balita (dibawah 5 tahun)
– AKI angka kematian Ibu (per 100.000 kelahiran
bayi).
• Angka Harapan Hidup manusia – life
expectancy – dihitung berdasarkan angka
IMR.
• Konsep baru: ‘prospective age’ atau sisa
hidup pada satu tahun tertentu.
7/9/2012 9
 Demographic Transition Model
Sebuah model yang menjelaskan proses
perubahan menuju demographic equilibrium,
dari angka kelahiran (Birth Rates) dan kematian
(Death Rates) dari tinggi ke rendah. Proses
tersebut dipengaruhi oleh pembangunan
ekonomi, terutama pergeseran dari pre-industry
ke industrialized economy.

Diahhadi Setyonaluri
Transisi Demografi

Fertilitas

Mortalitas
 Life Expectancy at Birth, Indonesia 1980-2015

75

72.1
71

70 69.2

65
65
63.5
years

61.2

60
58.6

55

50
1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source: World Population Prospects 2015 Rev

 Total Fertility Rates
Indonesia 1950-2045
6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Source: World Population Prospects 2015 Rev

 -6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
ACEH
SUMATERA UTARA
SUMATERA BARAT
RIAU
JAMBI
SUMATERA SELATAN
BENGKULU
LAMPUNG
KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG
KEP. RIAU
DKI JAKARTA
JAWA BARAT
JAWA TENGAH
DI YOGYAKARTA
JAWA TIMUR
BANTEN
BALI
2015

NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR
KALIMANTAN BARAT
KALIMANTAN TENGAH
KALIMANTAN SELATAN
KALIMANTAN TIMUR
SULAWESI UTARA
SULAWESI TENGAH
SULAWESI SELATAN
SULAWESI TENGGARA
GORONTALO
SULAWESI BARAT
MALUKU
MALUKU UTARA
Net Migration Rate (Recent Migration)

PAPUA BARAT
PAPUA
 Population Growth
Indonesia 1950-2045
3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
 Jumlah Penduduk 1950-2015
8 000 000

7 000 000

6 000 000

5 000 000

4 000 000
Axis Title
3 000 000

2 000 000

1 000 000

0
5 0 52 5 4 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 8 6 88 9 0 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 1 0 12 1 4
19 1 9 19 1 9 1 9 1 9 19 19 19 19 19 1 9 19 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 2 0 20

WORLD More developed regions

Less developed regions Less developed regions, excluding China
Struktur Usia
 1950
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 1965
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 1975
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 1995
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 2000
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 2005
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 2010
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 2025
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 2045
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000
 Implikasi Transisi Demografi:
Penurunan Rasio Ketergantungan

Sumber: UN Population Division 2015

 Transisi demografi berdampak pada
perubahan struktur umur penduduk

• Jumlah anak lebih sedikit  orang tua lebih

banyak investasi pendidikan/kesehatan anak 
quality-quantity of children (Becker 1981)
• Demographic dividend (bonus demografi) 
potensi peningkatan produktivitas dan
pendapatan (banyak asumsi!)
• Population aging  makin banyak penduduk
tua  tergantung healthy productive life
expectancy
Diahhadi Setyonaluri
Average consumption and labour income per capita by age,
Indonesia, 2005

Source: Maliki (2011).

29
 “Kependudukan”
• Analisis determinan, penyebab, dan/atau
akibat dari perubahan indikator demografis
(lahir, mati, pindah)
– kemiskinan, ketimpangan, pendidikan, status
kesehatan, status perkawinan, variasi regional,
etnisitas, budaya/kepercayaan, savings rate,
investment rate, economic growth, and many
more…
But we can’t do any analysis without DATA!

Population data (general)

• UN Population Division: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

• Badan Pusat Statistik: www.bps.go.id
• Sensus Penduduk 2010 (BPS): http://sp2010.bps.go.id/
• Gapminder: http://www.gapminder.org/
• Eurostat:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demogra
phy-migration-projections/population-data
 Data Pendidikan
• EducStat: http
://datatopics.worldbank.org/education/
• Projection of population by education:
http://www.oeaw.ac.at/fileadmin/subsites/Institute
/VID/dataexplorer/
index.html
 Data Kesehatan
• IHME Global Burden of Disease:
– Data: http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool
– Visualization: https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare
/
• WHO
• Demographic and Health Surveys  Statcompiler:
https://www.statcompiler.com/en/
• Indonesia:
– Riset Kesehatan Dasar (terakhir tahun 2013):
http://www.depkes.go.id/resources/download/general/H
asil%20Riskesdas%202013.
pdf
 Others
• BPS: http://bps.go.id
• World Bank Indo Dapoer:
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.a
spx?source=indo~dapoer-(indonesia-database
-for-policy-and-economic-research
)
 Tujuan Perkuliahan
• Mahasiswa memahami teori dan aplikasinya
dalam menganalisis fenomena
kependudukan/demografi
 Another goal:
You know how to “use” data

• Mahasiswa “melek” data:

– Mengerti mana data yang bisa digunakan untuk
analisis sebuah fenomena
– Mengerti definisi indikator yang digunakan
– Mengerti dari mana & bagaimana data/indikator
tersebut dibuat (apa/siapa denominator/nominator;
sampel, periode survey)
– Mengerti bagaimana mempresentasikan data
menjadi informasi yang penting dan menarik (tabel
frekuensi/persentase; grafik bar chart atau line, etc)
 Susunan Kuliah
1. 5 minutes presentation from each group (5
groups? – approx 35-45 mins)
2. (approx.) 1 hour lecture on theories
3. 15 mins to explain the detail assignment for
next session
 Penilaian
1. Tugas mingguan: 40% (tidak masuk 3 kali,
minus 5%)
2. UTS (literature review): 25%
3. UAS (paper individu): 35%
 Tugas Mingguan: Analisis Data
• Anda mencari indikator/data yang
mendekati/tepat untuk menggambarkan
fenomena yang dianalisis
• Anda melakukan analisis statistik deskriptif
sederhana menggunakan tabel atau grafik
(two-way test juga boleh) untuk menunjukkan
hal yang penting/menarik dari indikator2
tersebut.
 Contoh
• Apakah sistem kesehatan telah berhasil merespon
kebutuhan akan layanan kesehatan?
• Indikator:
– DALYs: The DALY measures health gaps as opposed to health
expectancies. It measures the difference between a current
situation and an ideal situation where everyone lives up to
the age of the standard life expectancy, and in perfect
health.
– Health utilization: Number of people who went to modern
health care facilities to treat symptoms (rawat jalan)
• Metode: korelasi antara DALYs dan utilization (Pearson
Correlation Coefficient)
 DALYs and Health Facilities Utilization, Indonesia 2016
7000000

6000000
ρ=0.556
5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000

0
0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000

Utilization Linear (Utilization) Linear (Utilization)

 Interpretasi
• The scatterplot shows a positive relationship
between DALYs and number of health facilities
utilization. It indicates that increased in morbidity is
followed by the increase in access to health care
facilities.
• However, the coefficient correlation shows that
there is no strong correlation between DALYs and
utilization. This means that increase in health care
utilization does not necessary show that the health
system have responded the rise in morbidity.
 Tugas Sesi 2: Melihat Hubungan antara
Penduduk dan Pembangunan Ekonomi
• Carilah data-data ini:
– trend jumlah penduduk,
– pertumbuhan penduduk,
– perubahan struktur umur penduduk
– indikator pembangunan ekonomi (pertumbuhan GDP per kapita,
poverty, inequality, dan lainnya)
• Analisislah data-data tersebut dan jawablah pertanyaan ini:
Bagaimana kaitan antara indikator2 penduduk tersebut dengan
indikator pembangunan ekonomi?
• Setiap kelompok akan membahas negara atau region yang
berbeda.
– Boleh ada negara yang overlap antar kelompok, tetapi ada perbedaan
definisi pengelompokan. Contoh middle income countries versus
developing countries.
 Presentasi : @ 5 minutes
• 3 Slides Rule:
1. Research question & describe your source of data and
definition of your chosen indicators
2. Graph/tables to answer the question
3. Your interpretation and conclusion – you are required to
link your interpretation to the theories or findings from
the reading materials
• Active participation
– Prepare questions and comments for other group’s
presentations
– Those who are active in discussions will get additional
points (10 points for excellent comment!)
 Reading Materials
• SILABUS is your main guide. Always check the topic and
materials for each session.
• All reading materials will be uploaded on Google Drive
and the link will be sent to your ketua kelas on the
weekend.
• You need to search some of the materials by yourself.
They’re from open sources. Please check your silabus
to find out which materials you need to find yourself.
• You need to read the materials and use (some of) them
in developing interpretation for your data analysis.
 Our Contacts
• Ruri – dsetyonaluri@gmail.com
– LINE: ruri_arvind_ari
(NO sending text messages at odd hours!)
• Dwini – dwinihandayani@gmail.com