CopyrightGruber
© 2012 Fourth
Worth Edition
Publishers
Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 1 of 27
Empirical Tools of Public Finance 3
• 3.1 Perbedaan Penting antara korelasi dan
kausalitas
Dan Sacks
• 3.4 Kesimpulan
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 2 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3
Alat empiris Keuangan Publik
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 4 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.1
The Problem
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 5 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.1
Example Identification Problem: Program persiapan
SAT
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 6 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.2
Randomized Trials sebagai sebuah solusi
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 9 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.2
Mengukur hubungan sebab akibat dengan Data Kita
ingin memiliki: Randomized trials
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 10 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.2
Mengapa Kita Harus melampaui randomized trials
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 11 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Memperkirakan Penyebab dengan Data yang Kita
miliki: Observational Data
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 13 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Time Series Analysis: masalah-masalah
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 14 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
kapan analisis time series digunakan?
Grafik harga rokok dan remaja yang merokok
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 16 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Analisis regresi Cross-Sectional: penawaran tenaga
kerja dan manfaat TANF
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 17 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Contoh data riil (nyata): penawaran tenaga kerja
dan manfaat TANF
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 18 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Masalah dari analisis regresi cross-section
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 19 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Variabel kontrol
Terkadang, variabel kontrol dapat memperbaiki bias..
• Variabel kontrol: Variabel yang termasuk dalam
model regresi cross-sectional untuk memperhitungkan
perbedaan antara perlakuan dan kelompok kontrol
yang dapat menyebabkan bias.
• Jika kita bisa mengukur “selera untuk bersantai" maka
kita bisa membandingkan dua ibu tunggal dengan rasa
yang sama untuk bersantai, tapi mendapat manfaat
TANF yang berbeda.
• Pada kenyataannya, mungkin mustahil untuk
mengukur "rasa untuk bersantai" dan semua variabel
lain yang relevan.
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 20 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Quasi Experiments
Eksperimen semu
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 21 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Estimator Difference-in-Difference
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 22 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Manfaat dan penawaran Tenaga Kerja di Arkansas
dan Louisiana
Arkansas
1996 1998 Difference
Benefit guarantee ($) 5,000 4,000 −1,000
Hours worked 1,000 1,200 200
Louisiana
1996 1998 Difference
Benefit guarantee ($) 5,000 5,000 0
Hours worked 1,050 1,100 50
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 23 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
Permasalahan dalam eksperimen semu: Bias
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 24 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.3
permasalahan pada eksperimen semu: Interpretasi
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 25 of 27
CHAPTE R 3 ■ E MPI R I CAL TO O LS O F PU BLI C F I NAN C E
3.4
kesimpulan
Kesimpulan
Public Finance and Public Policy Jonathan Gruber Fourth Edition Copyright © 2012 Worth Publishers 27 of 27