Portfolio Management
Lecture 1: A simple model of portfolio
management
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Performance measurement
& evaluation (class 13& 14)
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Utility function
Return
Risk
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Win 2
Tie 1
Loss 0
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Win 3
Tie 1
Loss 0
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f = E[ R] −
T
where T represents the risk tolerance, R is the
return on a portfolio and σ is its standard deviation
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x 2σ 2
max f = ( xRs + (1 − x ) R f ) −
s s
T
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x=5
0%
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Allocation to risky assets
1.2
0.8
Risky asset
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Risky tolerance
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Alloca
Rs − R f
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Psychological:
› Perception of risk
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Risk premium
› 1990-1999: US investor achieved total return of 14.2%
per annum
› 1926-2000: US investor achieved an equity risk
premium of 7.3%
› UK, 1919-1999: UK investor achieved an equity risk
premium of 6.4%
3-4-2000
3-7-2000
3-10-2000
3-1-2001
3-4-2001
3-7-2001
3-10-2001
3-1-2002
3-4-2002
3-7-2002
3-10-2002
3-1-2003
3-4-2003
3-7-2003
3-10-2003
VAEX
3-1-2004
3-4-2004
3-7-2004
3-10-2004
3-1-2005
3-4-2005
3-7-2005
3-10-2005
3-1-2006
3-4-2006
3-7-2006
Expected risk: implied volatility
3-10-2006
3-1-2007
3-4-2007
3-7-2007
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Different beliefs
› Even persons with the same risk tolerance could hold
very different portfolios if their expectations are
different.
T 1 1 1 1
Rs-Rf 4% 8% 2% 4%
Sigma 15% 20% 25% 25%
Strategy
› Brinson & Fachler: study of pension fund
performance measurement
› What factors impact the realized performance?
› Top down model
1. Strategic asset allocation
2. Tactical asset allocation
3. Security selection (stock picking)
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Measurement:
R(I) = ∑ w ip R ip R(III) = ∑ w ia R ip
i i
Source Calculation
Timing R(III) -R(I) Σ (wip - wia) Rip
Selection R(II) -R(I) Σ (Ria - Rip) wip
Interaction R(I)-R(II)-R(III) + R(IV) Σ wip (Rip - Ria) +wia (Ria-Rip)
Total contribution R(IV) -R(I) Ra- Rp
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Example
An investor utilizes a strategic asset allocation of
• 50% bonds
• 20% domestic stocks
•30% foreign stocks
Outcome:
Portfolio Return
I 13.6% Timing 3.2%
II 13.1% Selection -0.5%
III 16.8% Interaction -0.2%
IV 16.1% Total contribution 2.5%
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Lessons to be learned
› Strategic asset allocation / the allocation to choose the
level of risk is the most important decision in the
investment portfolio and explains more than 90% of
differences in return between portfolios.
› Tactical asset allocation and stock selection contribute
little to total outperformance.
› Decision to choose level of risk depends on a number
of subjective variables, such as risk tolerance,
expected return, and risk.