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Photovoltaics versus

Concentrated Solar Power


Dr. Martin Stickel
ICCI
International Energy and Environment Fair and Conference
Isanbul, 14th May 2010
Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary

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The Fichtner Group

 Established in 1922 – still a family-owned concern

 Germany’s biggest independent engineering and


consultancy enterprise

 More than 1700 employees worldwide – 450 in our Home Office

 Project experience in 150 countries

 Over 1200 ongoing projects – around 650 in our Home Office

 Active on behalf of:


• enterprises in the central services and utilities sector
• energy-intensive industries
• international development and commercial banks
• government and communal institutions and authorities

 Total turnover of 179 million € in 2008 – 67% international turnover


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FICHTNER – Independent Engineering and Consulting
Founded in 1922 and 100% family owned since then

Germany’s biggest independent engineering and consultancy company

Staff strength: Turn-over 2008:


Home office (Stuttgart) ca. 450 Home office: 122 million EUR
Total ca. 1,700 Total: 179 million EUR
On a global level FICHTNER is on average involved in approx.1,200 projects with
an overall investment volume of about 60 billion EUR.
FICHTNER is represented in more than 50 countries worldwide.

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FICHTNER Turkey
 FICHTNER has been working for more than
40 years on various projects in Turkey
 Established in July 2008, FICHTNER Turkey is
100% owned by FICHTNER Germany
 Completed numerous projects
mainly in the private sector
 Brought together experienced international
experts & local engineers/consultants
and worked on the most important projects of Turkey
 Vision of FICHTNER Turkey:
• Become one of the biggest well established engineering companies in the region
• Provide state-of-the art engineering and technical services to meet the demands of the
growing energy market
• Make use of Turkey’s young population: Train local engineers and technical staff to make
them compatible with international experts
• Use them for the most challenging projects in the region and worldwide

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Renewable Energy Technologies

Hydropower
Wind Power
Solarthermal Power
Photovoltaic
Geothermal Power
Solid Biomass
Sewage and Landfill Gas
Biogas
Biomass to Liquid (BtL)
Fuel Cells

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Our Range of Engineering and Consultancy Services
Project phase Our service Objective

Concept study Development and review of Definition of approach


realization concepts

Feasibility study Investigation of technical and Financing agreement/depiction of


financial viability financial performance

Conceptual and Drawing up permit Construction and operation


layout engineering application documents permits

Detail engineering Drawing up tender documents Project- and client-specific


tender documents

Tendering and Bid evaluation and Plant procurement to meet quality,


contract award contract negotiations time and cost requirements

Construction and installation Site supervision Functional plant

Commissioning / test operation Supervision of commissioning Production-ready plant


and tests

Operation Check of routine operation Regular commercial utilization


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Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary

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Solar Irradiation in Turkey

Turkey shows similar irradiation characteristics as Spain, one of the


largest solar energy markets.

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Worldwide Installed PV Supply

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PV „Grid Parity“ in Germany

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Solar Technologies
Solar Power
Plants Photo
Solar Thermal
(P

Non- Linear-focusing Point-focusing (dual


Concentrating (single axis) axias)

Solar- Linear Parabolic Central Concentrating


Dish
Chimney Fresnel Trough Receiver (CPV)

Concentration ratio and Temperature increasing

Thermal Energy Storage

RankineCycle (ST)
Wind
Turbine Integrated Solar Combined Cycle DC-AC
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Photovoltaics

Source: Juwi AG

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Photovoltaic Power - Module Types

•Mono-crystalline silicon: Most efficient technology (efficiencies of


around 18% (commercial) to 28% (research)
•Multi-crystalline silicon: Cheaper than mono-crystalline silicon but
also less efficient. Research cells approach 24% efficiency, and
commercial modules approach around 16% efficiency.
•Thin film:
•Cheaper than crystalline silicon but less efficient.
•Various materials (amorphous silicon, Cadmium Telluride, Copper
Indium Diselluride (CIS))

Selection of the technology depending on: site, irradiation, temperature, costs vs.
efficiency etc.

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Photovoltaic Power - Module Tracking

Mean annual radiation gain in Central Mean annual radiation gain in


Europe Southern Europe
Fix, optimum tilt angle 0% 0%
Horizontal N-S axis 11.5% 17.4%
30° tilt axis 22.9% 29.8%
Vertical axis, module tilt 50° 23.1% 29.6%
Biaxial tracking 27.2% 34%

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Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
General Technology Principle
 Concentration of solar energy flow (direct irradiation required)
 Conversion of Solar irradiation into high temperature heat
 Conversion of high temperature heat into mechanical energy
 Conventional power generation technology

Characteristics
 High energy density
 Conventional components used (hybridisation possible)
 Economy of scale leads to large scale plants
 Possibility of thermal energy storage
Types of Solar Thermal Power Plants
 Parabolic Trough
 Fresnel Trough
 Solar Tower (Central Receiver)
 Parabolic Dish (Dish/Stirling)
 Solar Chimney

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Parabolic Trough

395°C Steam
370°C, 100bar

Solar HX
Air and
vapour
Steam
Storage turbine G~ Cooling
30 MW Tower

Air Air
295°C Condenser

Parabolic
Trough Field

Electricity
to the grid

Source: Fichtner

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CSP Advantage: Operation without Sunshine

Thermal storage
Solar Heat
120
transfers excess
solar heat into
21. Jun evening hours.
100 dumping
to storage
from storage
80
Solar Heat (MW-th)

direct used

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time (hr.)

 Extension of full load operation to night time hours


 Reduction of part load operation (cloud transients)
 Dispatchable power generation

 State-of-the-art technology: Two-tank molten salt


storage (E.g. AndaSol 1-3: 1050 MWh [7.5 h])
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Trends & Expectations
 Capital Costs PV plants:
 2.5-4 €/Wp EPC prices depending on module type and tracking system
 Decreasing module costs (future 1€/Wp), i.e. even lower EPC prices
 Capital Costs CSP plants:
 4-6 €/Wp (parabolic trough, 50MW)
 Due to technological innovations and economies of scale decreasing
electricity generation costs expected
 Peak load or “base load”
 PV: Peak load plants purely depending on global solar irradiation
 CSP: Possibility of energy storage & relatively high predictability
of plant availability
 Project Capacities
 PV: 1kW – 50MW
 CSP: Parabolic trough 10MW – 300MW
Fresnel 30MW (first commercial plant)

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Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary

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Feasibility of Solar Projects

Plant Concept &


Revenues for
Simulation of Feed-in
Tariff Electricity Sales
Electricity Generation

Plant CAPEX Modelling of


Plant OPEX Project Economics

Fichtner Cost Net present value


Database Internal rate of return
Levelized electricity costs…

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PV Performance Projection - Example

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PV Performance Projection - Example

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Site Assessment

Source: Google Maps

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Site Assessment
Example: Johannesburg, South Africa

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Sensitivity of O&M Costs

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Sensitivity of Land Costs

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Sensitivity of Ambient Temperature

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Sensitivity of Direct Normal Irradiation

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Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary

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Global Annual Solar Cell Production

Source: Photon

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PV: Projection of Module Production Capacity

32 Source: Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc., 2009


Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power – Turkey 2010 Conference
AnnouncedCSP Projects

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000
W
[M
p
d
In
y
s
ce
tivm
C
u
la

33
]

Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power – Turkey 2010 Conference


Summary
 No general „better“ technology but project specific technology
selection
 Size, topography, irradiation (global / direct), Accessibility, grid condition
 Feed-in tariffs
 Relevance of dispatchability / storage

 Design optimization required for each project

 Thorough project development and due diligence process


 Reliable design
 “Bankable” EPC and O&M Contracts
 performance and plant acceptance criteria and procedures
 liquidated damages and incentive schemes
 Reliable Yield Forecasts

 Enormous potential for solar technologies in Turkey and worldwide

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Contact

Whom to contact?

FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KG FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KG


Büyükdere Cad. 87/5 Sarweystraße 3
34387 Mecidiyeköy 70191 Stuttgart
Istanbul Germany
Turkey
Dr. Martin Stickel
Manager PV / Solar Technologies

Phone +49 (0)711 8995-684


Phone 212- 2171767 Fax +49 (0)711 8995-495
Fax 212-2178124 Mobile +49 (0) 172 6358294
Mobile 0549-2171775 E-Mail martin.stickel@fichtner.de
E-Mail Rabia.Recla@fichtner.de
www.fichtner.de
www.fichtner.com.tr

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Typical Project Constellation
Investor

Lender Equity Insurance


company
Loans Policies

Solar Project Operation


Project
Developer Rights
Special Purpose Contract Management
Vehicle (SPV)

Power purchase O&M Contract


agreement

EPC Contract
Utility
Service
Company
EPC contractor(s)

Objectives:
 Implementation of a long life power plants with high energy yield and availability
 Proper and safe operation complying with the relevant requirements
 Low cost, high return on investment

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Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence

Phase I: Pre-Financial Close Due Diligence


Facilitate • Project structure and obligations of project parties
investment / • Solar radiation measurements and long-term global solar radiation assumptions
financing • Technical concept such as layout, grid connection, civil works
decisions
• Energy yield assessment as to the reliability of the input data, simulation, methods
and results (SOLPRO / PVSYST)
• Suitability of site (e.g. radiation, temperature, site complexity, soil conditions)
Conceptual • Contracts / project agreements including mainly: EPC-Contract, grid connection
study and agreement, PPA, O&M, technical and administrative operation
decision- • Adequacy of the technical warranties and verification procedures (e.g. performance
making phase test, availability, technical characteristics)
Engineering • Qualification of involved parties, QC/QA concept
and contract • Permits and licenses (status, constraints e.g. due to noise, etc.)
award • Project insurances
• Time schedule /
Construction • Project management / risk management
• Financial model: elaboration of model or providing input data to bank’s / financial
Operation advisor’s model
37
• AnalysisPhotovoltaics
of project sensitivities / risk assessment
versus Concentrated Solar Power – Turkey 2010 Conference
Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence

Phase II: Construction Monitoring


Facilitate • Construction monitoring (compliance with contract / specifications)
investment / • Compliance with project schedule
financing • Review of EPC contractor‘s / owner‘s progress report
decisions • Site and workshop inspections
• Preparation of monthly or quarterly progress reports

Phase III: Testing and completion certificate


Conceptual
study and • Certification of completion
decision- • Review of commissioning and of trial operation
making phase • Attendance and monitoring of the performance and reliability tests
Engineering • Review of performance test results in view of liquidated damages requests
and contract • PV plant installation and mounting inspections
award
Phase IV: Monitoring during term of project loan facilities
Construction • Carry out annual site visits
• Preparation of (semi-) annual operating status reports including
Operation • operating performance (availability, power performance, energy yield)
• maintenance and extraordinary events
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PV World Market 2008

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Integrated Expertise

Energy Comprehensive technological know-how as foundation


Technology • conventional technologies
• innovative technologies / renewable energies
Power Supply Extensive planning experience in all project phases

Classical planning services are rounded off by


Environmental our over-arching expertise in consultancy
Technology

Water and Technologies Planning


Infrastructure

IT, Economics and Consultancy


Finances

Broad-based range of services from one source


Complete solutions on a sound technical and economic footing
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Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC)

Stack
Exhaust
100°C
395°C
Steam
540°C, 100bar

Solar HX HRSG
Air and
vapour
Steam
Storage turbine G~ Cooling
60 MW Tower

Air Air
295°C Condenser
Exhaust
Parabolic 600°C
Trough Field

G
~ Electricity
to the grid
Gas turbine 90 MW

Solar Island Combined Cycle Island


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Solar Thermal Power Plants – Fresnel

Principle / Characteristics
 Line-focussing with long mirror strips onto fixed absorber
 Lower optical efficiency compared to parabolic trough
 More simple design offers potentially lower investment cost
 Direct steam generation in absorber (25 – 100 bar / 270 – 550°C)
 Conventional water-steam-cycle (now saturated, future superheated)
 Efficient use of land due to compact design

Status
 Relatively new technology
 Several pilot plants in operation in Australia, Spain and USA
 First pre-commercial demonstration plant for electricity generation
(5 MWe) started operation end of 2008 in California
 First large scale plant shall start operation in 2012 in California
using Ausra’s Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector technology.
 New 30MW project announced in Spain, recent large
investment by Swiss utility
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Solar Thermal Power Plants – Solar Tower
Principle / Characteristics
 Tracked field of mirrors („heliostats“), point focussing (factor > 500)
 Concentration on small area on top of the tower („receiver“)
 High concentration factors = high temperatures (up to 700°C)
 High solar-electric efficiency due to higher temperatures
 Different heat transfer fluids (molten salt, air, water/steam)
 generation of steam by heat exchanger
 conventional water-steam-cycle

Status
 Potential successfully demonstrated in several large pilot plants
 Solar Tower technologies at different development stages
 First two commercial plants in operation in Spain (PS 10 & 20)
 Several large plants (>100 MWe) under development in US
 Despite first commercial plants still more R&D needed

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PV related services

- technical due diligences - on behalf of lenders as well as investors


- techno-economic feasibility and conceptual studies
- yield projections
- specifications for large-scale PV installations
- check of construction and operating contracts - EPC and O&M - under
their technical and commercial aspects
- supervision of construction and progress monitoring
- participation in acceptance tests
- verification of electricity yields during operation
- other PV related technical advisory

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Methodology

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Methodology – Financial Calculation

Levelized electricity costs (LEC) in €/kWh

It Investment expenditures in the year t in €


Mt Operations and maintenance expenditures in the year t in €
Et Electricity generation in the year t in kWh
i Discount rate
n Life time of the system in years

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Site Assessment

Nassau, Bahamas

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Sensitivity of Wind Speed

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Extract of Reference Projects – Solar Thermal
Spain, AndaSol-1, -2, Spain, PS-10 BMU / KfW, ZIP Greece, Theseus AE
-3: 10 MW Program Project Company
Three Solar Rankine Cycle Plants Central Receiver Plant Ten research projects for Market 50 MW Solar Rankine Cycle Plant
with storage, each 50 MWe Introduction of Solar Technology
Spain, RentaSolar
S.A.
Project Company for
PV Power Plants in Spain
Abu Dhabi:
Design and
Engineering
100 MWe CST Plant
Arizona, USA
Project Development for
250 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle India, Mathania
Plant 140 MWe ISCC (solar 30 MWe)

World Bank
Global Market Initiative
(GMI)
EM-Power
Botswana Egypt, Kuraymat:
Morocco, Ain Beni Site Selection and 150 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe) Jordan Australia
Mathar Feasibility Study for Project Development Site Selection and
400 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe) 200 Mwe CST Plant Egypt, El Nasr for 50 MWe Solar Feasibility Study
Solar Process Heat Plant Rankine Cycle Plant 200 MW CST Plant

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Solar Irradiation

Different technologies use different type of irradiation.

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Solar Thermal Power Plants – Parabolic Trough
Principle / Characteristics
 Tracked parabolic trough focuses on a „receiver“ (up to factor 100)
 Heat transfer fluid (currently synthetic oil) heats up to 393°C in receiver
 Generation of superheated steam via solar heat exchanger
 Conventional water-steam-cycle
 Possibility to store thermal energy (currently molten salt storage)
 Solar-to-electric efficiency of 12-16%

Status
 Most mature and bankable CSP technology
 First nine plants (SEGS plants) successfully in operation
since more than 20 years in California
 Several Gigawatts of parabolic trough power plants in
planning or already under construction
 Major cost reduction due to mass production, economy
of scale and further technological advancements
 Next steps: Direct steam generation + implementation
of new storage technologies (e.g. concrete)
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Site Assessment

Site DNI Temperature Wind


[kWh/m²] [° C] [m/s]
Nassau 1,890 25.7 4.1
Montalto 1,584 16.0 3.0
Johannesburg 2,302 15.7 3.5

Technology Nassau Montalto Johannesburg


[kWh/kWp] [kWh/kWp] [kWh/kWp]
Thin film 1,886 1,609 2,020
Monocrystalline 1,728 1,485 1,904
Polycrystalline 1,683 1,466 1,879
Parabolic trough 2,125 1,570 2,155

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