4 - Uji Hipotesis

10 - 1
Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

10 - 2
When you have completed this chapter, you

will be able to:
Define null and alternative hypothesis
and hypothesis testing
Define Type I and Type II errors
Describe the five-step hypothesis testing procedure
Distinguish between a one-tailed and

a two-tailed test of
hypothesis
10 - 3
Conduct a test of hypothesis about a

population mean
Conduct a test of hypothesis about a
population proportion
Explain the relationship between hypothesis

testing and confidence interval estimation
Compute the probability of a Type II error,
and power of a test

10 - 4
Terminology
Hypothesis
…is a statement about a population distribution such that:
(i) it is either true or false, but never both, and
(ii) with full knowledge of the population data,
it is possible to identify, with certainty,
whether it is true or false.
Examples
…the mean
…the mean monthly
monthly income
income forfor all
all
Examples
systems analysts
systems analysts isis $3569.
$3569.
…35% of
…35% of all
all customers
customers buying
buying coffee
coffee
at Tim
at Tim Horton’s
Horton’s return
return within
within aa week.
week.
10 - 5
Terminology
Alternative Hypothesis H1
…is the statement that
we are interested in proving
.
It is usually a research hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis Ho
…is the complement of the alternative hypothesis.
We accept the null hypothesis as the default
hypothesis. It is not rejected unless there is
convincing sample evidence against it.

10 - 6
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing
Step 11
Step State the
State the null
null and
and alternate
alternate hypotheses
hypotheses
Step 22
Step Select the
Select the level
level of
of significance
significance
Step 33
Step Identify the
Identify the test
test statistic
statistic
Step 44
Step State the
State the decision
decision rule
rule
Step 55
Step Compute the
Compute the value
value of
of the
the test
test statistic
statistic
and make
and make aa decision
decision
DoNOT
Do NOTreject
rejectH
H00 RejectH
Reject H00and
andaccept
acceptH
H11
10 - 7
When a decision is based on analysis of sample data

and not the entire
population data, it is not possible
to make a correct decision all the time.
Our objective is to try to keep the probability
of making a wrong decision
as small as possible!

10 - 8
Let’s
Let’s look
look at
at the
the Canadian
Canadian legal
legal system
systemfor
for an
an analogy...
analogy...
Two hypotheses:
1. …the accused person is innocent
2. …the accused person is guilty
After
Afterhearing
hearingfrom
fromboth
boththe
theprosecution
prosecutionand
andthe
thedefence,
defence,
aadecision
decisionisismade,
made,declaring
declaringthe
theaccused
accusedeither:
either:
Innocent! But do the courts always

Guilty! make the “right”
decision?
10 - 9
Court Decision Person is Person is

declared declared
Reality ’not “guilty”
guilty’
Person is Correct Error
“innocent” Decision
Type I Error
H0 is true
Person is
Error Correct
“guilty” Decision
H1 is true Type II Error
H0: person is innocent H1: person is guilty

10 - 10
Terminology
Level of Significance
…is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis
when it is actually true, i.e. Type I Error
Type II Error
…accepting the null hypothesis when it is
actually false.

Terminology
10 - 11
Test Statistic
…is a value, determined from sample information,
used to determine
whether or not to reject the null hypothesis.
Critical Value
…is the dividing point between
the region where the null hypothesis is rejected
and the
region where it is not rejected.

10 - 12
Tests
Tests

10 - 13
α
1- α
=
= rejection
acceptance region
region
0 Critical z α

10 - 14
α
=
1- α rejection
= region
acceptance
α /2
region α /2
-zα /2 0 zα /2

10 - 15
Tests of Significance
A test is one-tailed when the alternate

hypothesis, H1, states a direction.
Examples
Examples
H : The mean yearly commissions earned by
1
full-time realtors is more than $65,000. (µ>$65,000)
H : The mean speed of trucks traveling on the 407 in
1
Ontario is less than 120 kilometres per hour. (µ<120)
H : Less than 20 percent of the customers pay cash
1
for their gasoline purchase. (p<.20)
10 - 16
5% Level of Significance α=.05

Reject H
Reject when zz >>1.65
Ho when 1.65
o
1- α = 95%
acceptance = 5%
region rejection
region
0 1.65
10 - 17
Tests of Significance
A test is two-tailed when no direction is specified
in the alternate hypothesis, H1
Examples
Examples
H : The mean time Canadian families live in a

1
particular home is not equal to 10 years. (µ≠ 10)
H : The average speed of trucks travelling on the
1
407 in Ontario is different than 120 kph.
(µ≠ 120)
H : The percentage of repeat customers within a
1
week at Tim Horton’s is not 50%. (p ≠ .50)
10 - 18
5% Level of Significance
Reject H
Reject Ho when
o
z>
when z> 1.96 or
1.96 z<
or z< -
- 1.96
1.96
= 5%
= 95% rejection
acceptance region
region
0.025 0.025
1.96&
1.96 &-1.96
-1.96are
arecalled
called“critical
“criticalvalues”
values”
Testing for
Testing for the
the Population
Population Mean:
Mean: 10 - 19
Large Sample,
Large Sample,
Population Standard
Population Standard Deviation
Deviation
Known
Known
Test Statistic to be used:
X −µ
z =
σ / n

10 - 20
Testingfor
Testing forthe
thePopulation
PopulationMean:
Mean:
LargeSample,
Large Sample,
PopulationStandard
Population StandardDeviation
DeviationKnown
Known
The processors of eye drop medication indicate on the

label that the bottle contains 16 ml of medication.
The standard deviation of the process is 0.5 ml.
A sample of 36 bottles from the last hour’s
production revealed a mean weight of 16.12 ml per bottle.
Atthe
At the.05
.05significance
significancelevel
levelisisthe
theprocess
processout
outof
ofcontrol?
control?
Thatis,
That is,can
canwe
weconclude
concludethatthatthe
themean
meanamount
amountper
perbottle
bottle
isisdifferent
differentfromfrom16
16ml?
ml?

10 - 21
HypothesisTest
Hypothesis Test
Step 11
Step Statethe
State thenull
nulland
andalternate
alternatehypotheses
hypotheses H0: µ = 16
H1: µ ≠
Step 22
Step Selectthe
Select thelevel
levelof
ofsignificance
significance α
16 = 0.05
Step 33
Step Identifythe
Identify thetest
teststatistic
statistic Because we know the standard
deviation, the test statistic is Z
Step 44
Step Statethe
State thedecision
decisionrule
rule Reject H0 if z > 1.96 or z < -1.96
Step 55 Computethe
thetest
teststatistic
statistic X −µ 16 . 12 − 16 . 00
Step Compute z= =
andmake
and makeaadecision
decision σ n 0 . 5 36
= 1 . 44
Do not reject the null hypothesis.

We cannot conclude
Testing for
Testing for the
the Population
Population Mean:
Mean: 10 - 22
Large Sample,
Large Sample,
Population Standard
Population Standard Deviation
Deviation Unknown
Unknown
Rock’s Discount Store chain issues its own credit card.
Lisa, the credit manager, wants to find out if the
mean monthly unpaid balance is
more than $400.
The level
The level of
of significance
significance is
is set
set at
at .05.
.05.
A random check of 172 unpaid balances revealed the
sample mean to be $407
and the sample standard deviation
Should Lisa conclude thattothe
bepopulation
$38. mean is
greater than $400, or is it reasonable to assume that
the difference of $7 ($407-
$400) is due to chance?
10 - 23
When the sample is large, i.e. over 30, you can

use the z-distribution as your test statistic.
(Just replace the sample standard deviation for the
population standard deviation)
Remember, use
Remember, use the
the best
best that
that you
you have!
have!

10 - 24
HypothesisTest
Hypothesis Test
Step 11
Step Statethe
State thenull
nulland
andalternate
alternatehypotheses
H1: µ > 400
Step 22
Step Selectthe
Select thelevel
levelof
ofsignificance
significance α = 0.05
Step 33
Step Identifythe
Identify thetest
teststatistic
statistic Because the sample is large,
we use the test statistic Z
Step 44
Step Statethe
State thedecision
decisionrule
rule Reject H0 if z > 1.645
X −µ $ 407 − $ 400
Step 55
Step Computethe
Compute thetest
teststatistic
statistic
z= =
and make a decision
and make a decision σ n $ 38 172
= 2 . 42
Reject the hypothesis. H0 . Lisa can conclude

that the mean unpaid balance is greater than
10 - 25
Testingfor
Testing forthe
thePopulation
PopulationMean:
Mean:
SmallSample,
Small Sample,
PopulationStandard
DeviationUnknown
Unknown

X −µ
t=
s/ n

10 - 26
Testingfor
Testing forthe
thePopulation
PopulationMean:
Mean:
SmallSample,
Small Sample,
PopulationStandard
DeviationUnknown
Unknown
The current production rate for producing 5 amp fuses at

Ned’s Electric Co. is 250 per hour.
A new machine has been purchased and installed that, according
to the supplier, will increase the production rate!
A sample of 10 randomly selected hours from last month revealed
the mean hourly production on the new machine was 256 units,
with a sample standard deviation of 6 per hour.
Atthe
At the.05
.05significance
significancelevel,
level,
canNed
can Nedconclude
concludethat
thatthe
thenew
newmachine
machineisis
faster?
faster?
10 - 27
HypothesisTest
Hypothesis Test
Step 11
Step Statethe
State thenull
nulland
andalternate
alternatehypotheses
H1: µ > 250
Step 22
Step Selectthe
Select thelevel
levelof
ofsignificance
Step 33
Step Identifythe
Identify thetest
teststatistic
statistic Because the sample is small and
σ is unknown, we use the t-
test
Step 44
Step State the decision rule
State the decision rule … 10 -1 = 9 degrees of freedom
Reject H0 if t > 1.833
Step 55
Step Computethe
Compute thetest
teststatistic
statistic X −µ 256 − 250
andmake
and makeaadecision
decision t= =
σ n 6 10
= 3 . 162
Reject the hypothesis. H0 . Ned can conclude
that the new machine will increase the
10 - 28
A P -Value is the probability,

(assuming that the null hypothesis is true)
of finding a value of the test statistic
at least as extreme
as the computed value
for the test!
If the P-Value is smaller than the significance level,
H0 is rejected.
If the P-Value is larger than the significance level,
H0 is not rejected.
10 - 29
Previously determined…
Rock’sDiscount
Rock’s
issuesits
DiscountStore
itsown
owncredit
Storechain
creditcard.
chain
card.
α = 0.05
issues
Lisa,the
Lisa, thecredit
creditmanager,manager,
X −µ
wantstotofind
wants
meanmonthly
mean
findout
monthlyunpaid
outififthe
unpaid
the
z= = 2.42
balanceisismore
balance morethan than$400. $400. s n
Thelevel
The level
ofofsignificance
significanceisisset setatat.05. .05.
AA P(z ≥ 2.42) = .5 - .4922
randomcheck
random checkof of172 172
unpaidbalances balancesrevealed revealed = .0078
unpaid
thesample
the samplemean meantotobe be$407 $407
andthe
and thesample
samplestandard standard Since P-value is smaller than
deviationtotobe be$38. $38.
deviation
ShouldLisa Lisa α of 0.05, reject H0.
Should
concludethat
conclude thatthe the The
populationmean
population meanisisgreater greater population mean is greater
than
than
Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill
$400?
$400?
Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. than $400.
10 - 30
P-Value ==
P-Value P-Value ==
P-Value
p(z ≥≥ |computed
p(z |computed value|)
value|) 2p(z ≥≥ |computed
2p(z |computed value|)
value|)
|....| means
|....| means absolute
absolute value
value of…
of…

10 - 31
Previously determined…
αα == 0.05
0.05
The processors of eye drop X −µ
medication indicate on the label z= = 1 . 44
that the bottle contains 16 ml of
σ n
medication. The standard P-Value ==
deviation of the process is 0.5 ml.
P-Value
2p(z ≥≥ |computed
2p(z |computed value|)value|)
A sample of 36 bottles from last
hour’s production revealed a = 2p(z
2p(z ≥≥ |1.44|)
|1.44|)
mean weight of 16.12 ml per
=
bottle. At the .05 significance level 2(.5 -- .4251)
== 2(.5 .4251)
is the process out of control? == 2(.0749)
2(.0749)
That is, can we conclude that the == .1498
.1498
mean amount per bottle
is different from 16Since Since.1498
.1498>>.05,
.05,do
donot
notreject
rejectHH0.0.
ml?
Interpretingthe
Interpreting the 10 - 32
Weightof
Weight ofEvidence
Evidenceagainst
againstHHoo
If the
If the P-value
P-value isis less
less than
than …
…
.10 we have some evidence that

H is not true o
.05 we have strong evidence that

H is not true o
.01 we have veryH strong evidence that

is not true o
.001 we have extremely strong evidence

that H is not true o
If the
If theP-value
P-value isis less
less than…
than… 10 - 33
.10 we have some evidence

.05 we have strong evidence
.01 we have very strong evidence
.001 we have extremely strong evidence
that Ho is not true
Since P-value
Since P-value isis .0078
.0078
… we
… we have
have
very strong
very strong
evidence
evidence
to conclude
to conclude thatthat the
the
population mean
population mean
isis greater
greater than
than
10 - 34
A Proportion … isis the

… the fraction
fraction oror
percentage that
percentage that indicates
indicates the
the
part of
part of the
the population
population or or
sample having
sample having aa
particular trait
particular trait of
of interest
interest
Sample Proportion … is denoted by p

… is found by:
p = Number of successes in the sample

Number sampled

Testing aa
Testing
10 - 35
Single Population
Single Population Proportion:
Proportion:
pˆ − p 0
z=
p 0 (1 − p 0 )
n
p^ … is the symbol for sample proportion
p … is the symbol for population proportion
p0 … represents a population proportion of interest

10 - 36
In the past, 15% of the mail order

solicitations for a certain charity
resulted in a financial contribution.
A new solicitation letter that has been drafted
is sent to a sample of 200 people and
45 responded with a contribution.
At the .05 significance level
can it be concluded that the
new letter is more effective?

10 - 37
HypothesisTest
Hypothesis Test
Step 11
Step Statethe
State thenull
nulland
andalternate
alternatehypotheses
hypotheses H0: p = .15
H1: p > .15
Step 22
Step Selectthe
Select thelevel
levelof
ofsignificance
Step 33
Step Identifythe
Identify thetest
teststatistic
statistic We will use the z-test
Step 44
Step Statethe
State thedecision
decisionrule
rule Reject H0 if z > 1.645
Step 55
Step Computethe
Compute thetest
teststatistic
statistic
andmake
and makeaadecision
decision
45 −
z= pˆ − p 200 . 15
pˆ (1 − p )
=
.15(1 − . 15 )
= 2 . 97
n 200
Reject the hypothesis. More than 15% are
responding with a pledge, therefore, the new letter is
more
Copyright effective!
© 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.
RelationshipBetween
Relationship BetweenHypothesis
HypothesisTesting
Testing 10 - 38
Procedureand
Procedure andConfidence
ConfidenceInterval
Interval
Estimation
Estimation
Case 1:
Case 1:
TEST
Our decision rule can be restated as:
Do not reject H0
if µ 0 lies in the (1-α )

confidence interval
estimate of the population mean,
10 - 39
α
=
1- α rejection
= region
Confidence
Interval
region
0
Do not reject Ho when z falls
in the confidence interval estimate

RelationshipBetween
Relationship Between 10 - 40
HypothesisTesting
Hypothesis TestingProcedure
Procedureand
and
ConfidenceInterval
Confidence IntervalEstimation
Estimation
Case2:
Case 2: Lower-tailed test

Do not reject H0
if µ 0 is less than or equal to
the (1-α )
upper confidence bound for µ , computed from
the sample data.
RelationshipBetween
HypothesisTesting
Procedureand
and
ConfidenceInterval
Estimation
1- α =
confidence
level region
α
=
rejection
region
0 Do not reject

RelationshipBetween
HypothesisTesting
Procedureand
and
ConfidenceInterval
Estimation
Case 3:
Case 3: Upper-tailed test

Do not reject H0 if
µ 0 is greater than or equal to
the (1-α ) lower confidence bound for µ ,
computed from the sample data.

10 - 43
1- α =
acceptance α
region =
rejection
region

TypeII
Type IIError
Error 10 - 44
Level of Significance
…is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis
when it is actually true, i.e. Type I Error
Type II Error
…accepting the null hypothesis when it is
actually false.

Calculatingthe
Calculating theProbability
Probability 10 - 45
ofaaType
of TypeII
IIError
Error
AAbatch
batchofof5000
5000light
lightbulbs
bulbseither
eitherbelong
belong
toaasuperior
to superiortype,
type,with
withaamean
meanlife
lifeof
of2400
2400
hours,or
hours, orto
toan
aninferior
inferiortype,
type,
withaamean
with meanlifelifeofof2000
2000hours.
hours.
(Bydefault,
(By default,
thebulbs
the bulbswill
willbe
besold
soldasas the
the
Both bulb inferiortype.)
distributions
inferior type.)
arenormal,
normal,with
withaa
Both bulb distributions are
standarddeviation
standard deviationofof300 hours. αα ==0.025.
300hours. 0.025.
Supposewe
Suppose weselect
selectaasample
sampleof of44bulbs.
bulbs.
Findthe
Find theprobability
probabilityof
ofaa
TypeII
Type IIerror.
error.
Superior:µµ =2400
Superior: Inferior:µµ =2000
=2400 Inferior: =2000 10 - 46
σσ =300
=300 αα =0.025
=0.025
Step 11
Step Statethe
State thenull
nulland
andalternate
alternatehypotheses
H1: µ = 2400
Step 22
Step Selectthe
Select thelevel
levelof
ofsignificance
Step 33
Step Identifythe
Identify thetest
teststatistic
statistic
As populations are normal, σ is known, we use the z-test

Step 44
Step Statethe
State thedecision
decisionrule
rule
Reject H0 if the computed z > 1.96,

or stated
If the computed value another
x bar way,
is greater than xu = 2000
+1.96(300/√n), REJECT H0 in favour of H1
10 - 47
SupposeH
Suppose H0isisfalse
falseand
andH H1isistrue.
true.
0 1
i.e.the
i.e. thetrue
truevalue
valueof
ofµµisis2400,
2400,
thenxxbar
then barisisapproximately
approximately
normallydistributed
normally distributedwithwithaamean
meanof of
2400and
2400 andaastandard
standarddeviation
deviationof ofσσ /√n
/√n
==300/√n
300/√n
The probability of a Type II Error
…is the probability of not rejecting Ho
…is the probability that the value of x bar
obtained will be less than or equal to xu
≤ Xu
X

10 - 48
Suppose we
Suppose we select
select aa sample
sample of
of 44 bulbs.
bulbs.
Then xx bar
Then bar has
has aa mean
mean of of 2400
2400 and
and aa
sd of
sd of 300/√4
300/√4 ==150150
Xu = 2000+1.96(300/√4) = 2294
X −µ 2294 − 2400
z= = = − 0 . 70666
σ n 300 4
AA11 == 0.2611,
0.2611,
giving
giving us us aa
left
left tail
tail area
area
of
of 0.24
0.24

10 - 49
The probability
The probability of
of aa Type
Type II
II error 0.24 i.ei.e..ββ =0.24
error isis 0.24 =0.24
10 - 50
※ If we decrease the value of α (alpha), the value z

increases and the critical value xu
moves to the right,
and therefore the value of β (beta) increases.
 Conversely, if we increase the value
of α (alpha), xu moves to the left, thereby
decreasing the value of β (beta)
 For a given value of α (alpha), the value of β (beta)
can be decreased by increasing the sample size.

Powerof
Power ofaaTest
Test 10 - 51
… is defined as the probability of rejecting H 0

when H0 is false, or
…the probability of correctly identifying

a true alternative hypothesis
…it is equal to (1-β )

In previous
In example,ββ == 0.24
previous example, 0.24
Therefore, the
Therefore, the test’s
test’s power
power isis 1-0.24
1-0.24 == 0.76
0.76
Test your
Test your learning
learning…
…
10 - 52
oon…
n …
k
CClilcickwww.mcgrawhill.ca/college/lind
Online Learning Centre

for quizzes
extra content
data sets
searchable glossary
access to Statistics Canada’s E-Stat data
…and much more!

10 - 53
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4 - Uji Hipotesis

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10 - 1

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

When you have completed this chapter, you

Define Type I and Type II errors

Describe the five-step hypothesis testing procedure

Distinguish between a one-tailed and

Conduct a test of hypothesis about a

Explain the relationship between hypothesis

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

When a decision is based on analysis of sample data

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Innocent! But do the courts always

Court Decision Person is Person is

H0: person is innocent H1: person is guilty

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

A test is one-tailed when the alternate

5% Level of Significance α=.05

H : The mean time Canadian families live in a

Test Statistic to be used:

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

The processors of eye drop medication indicate on the

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Do not reject the null hypothesis.

When the sample is large, i.e. over 30, you can

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Reject the hypothesis. H0 . Lisa can conclude

Test Statistic to be used:

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

The current production rate for producing 5 amp fuses at

A P -Value is the probability,

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

.10 we have some evidence that

.05 we have strong evidence that

.01 we have veryH strong evidence that

.001 we have extremely strong evidence

.10 we have some evidence

A Proportion … isis the

Sample Proportion … is denoted by p

p = Number of successes in the sample

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

In the past, 15% of the mail order

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

if µ 0 lies in the (1-α )

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Our decision rule can be restated as:

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Our decision rule can be restated as:

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

As populations are normal, σ is known, we use the z-test

Reject H0 if the computed z > 1.96,

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.

※ If we decrease the value of α (alpha), the value z

Copyright © 2003 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.