Indian Option
A Presentation By
Muzahid Khan (muzahidkhan123@gmail)
Motor Gasoline
Jet Fuel
Kerosene
Distillate Fuel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Major Refining Hubs
Rotterdam
Refinery Capacity: 64 MMTPA
Refinery product surplus: 62 MMTPA
Product Export: Europe hinterland, US
Middle East
Refinery Capacity: 340 MMTPA
Refinery product surplus: 92 MMTPA Singapore
Product Export: Far East, Asia, Europe Refinery Capacity: 67 MMTPA
Refinery product surplus: 40 MMTPA
Product Export: Asia Pacific
Total Exports and Imports of
Refined Petroleum Products
16000
14000
6414.38
WORLD TOTAL
12000
Imports: 21,083.59
Exports: 21,856.61
Thousand Barrels per Day
10000
4051.9
8000
6000 2180.36
4000 3360.69
2348.52
7349.02
6032.51
2000 2351.2
1158.55
0
4286.76 1319.55
350.66 867.54 877.55
North Central and Europe Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia &
America S. America Oceania
Source: EIA (2008)
Imports Exports
World Oil Refining
World Refining capacity 1.1.2008 World Refining capacity & thruput
1980-2008 (mbpd)
88.6
90
Refinery capacity
USA 85
20% 80
75
70
Others China
48% 9% 65
Germany
60
Russia 55
3%
6% 50
Japan
S. S.
India
5%
Arabia
Korea
Total: 88.6 mbpd 3%2%3%
(4431 MMTPA) Sources: BP Stats 2009
• World oil demand grown faster than refining capacity-better capacity utilization
• World average refy capacity utilization moves around 75% (1980) to 87% (2008)
• USA: Refining capacity declining, reached peak of 18.6 mbpd in 1980.
Regional product balance, 2020
Russia All figures in MMTPA
North America Deficit: 13
Deficit: 43 Europe MS: 7
MS: 24 Jetkero: 4
Jet kero: 19
Deficit: 145 Others: 3
LPG: 17
Surplus: 68 Naphtha: 23 Surplus: 71
LPG: 19 Jet kero: 54 LPG: 1
Naphtha: 15 HSD: 49 Naphtha: 2
HSD: 5 Surplus: 133 HSD: 34
FO: 14 FO: 34
MS: 126
Others: 15 Net: (+) 58
FO: 7
Net: (+) 25 Net: (-) 12
Middle East Asia Pacific
Latin America Africa Deficit: 31
Deficit: 50 Deficit: 71 Deficit: 419
MS: 26 LPG: 40
Naphtha: 7 LPG: 5 Others: 5 Naphtha: 56
MS: 10 MS: 24
HSD: 32 Jetkero: 3
Surplus: 188 MS: 107
LPG: 85 Jet kero: 26
Others: 1 HSD: 38
Naphtha: 44 HSD: 86
Surplus: 30 Others: 1 Others: 28
Jet/kero: 19
LPG: 5 Surplus: 36 HSD: 17 Surplus: 0
FO: 25 Naphtha: 11 FO: 23
Net: (-) 20 FO: 25 Net: (-) 419
Net: (+) 157
Net: (-) 35
Source: EIA
• By 2020, world would be net product deficit @ 247 MMTPA
– 100 MMT surplus (LPG:49 & Fuel Oil:51)
– 347 MMT deficit (Naphtha:15, MS:72, Jet/kero:88, HSD:147 & Others:25)
Highlights
30 26
28 26
18 18
20
14 13
16 15 14
11
9 9
10
44 7 6 Product
0.4 34 3 2 21 2 24 3
0.1 0.2 Import
0
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Source: PNGRB
127.07
150
100 172.99
1.68
50
250 235
140
200
100 162
149
150 135
120 29
100
50
0
2006-07 2011-12 2016-17
0
2005 2006 2007 2011-12
India
Middle East (MMTPA)
Refinery Capacity: 340
Refinery product surplus: 92
Product supplied to: Asia Pacific/Europe
Way Forward
• Leverage strategic advantage of
coastal locations
– Consolidate with current/proposed
location
– Proposed PCPIRs / SEZs
• Cost competitiveness to position
the product in target markets
• Integration with petrochemicals,
derivative and utility units, for
maximizing value addition
• Environmental norms and
product quality specs to meet
the export markets
Opportunity for India to emerge as a refining hub appears to be real and attractive
References
• PNGRB India
• MOPNG
• EIA