Knowledge Transfer Networks

Accelerating business innovation;

A Technology Strategy Board programme

Global PV market and the UK

PV Supply Chain
Alastair Wilson
Director – Photonics and Plastic
Electronics KTN
 What will be covered
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

• The Global PV market

• Value chains for production PV
• UK PV value chain and players
• PV complementary technologies
• UK players in complementary technologies
• Conclusions
 Global PV Market & revenue forecast
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

CAGR of 40% until 2013

PV Market Revised Outlook (2007-2013)

140
40
Solar Revenue Old Forecast New Forecast
118.1
120 35

100 92.7 30

25
80
68.1
Revenue[Bil. $]

arket[GW]
20
60
47.9 15

PVM
40 31 10
18.1
20
8.9 5
4.6 7

0
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F
(Source : Solar Energy, Displybank Dec 2008)

Source: Displaybank Solar & Energy – Dec 2008

 BCG Matrix of top 11
Knowledge Transfer Networks
country markets Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

Question Mark Stars

300%

250% Spain

Portugal
200%
South Korea Greece

India 150% China South Korea

Italy
Germany
Portugal USA
100% India
France Italy

Greece 50% Japan

China France Germany
US

0% Spain Germany
Japan
0.1 1.0 10.0

-50%
Japan
Diameter : Market volume (newly installed MW)
-100% X-axis : Relative market share (log)
2007 2010E
Poor Dog Y-axis : CAGR 2004-2007, 2007-2010 Estimated
Cash Cows
UK Installed PV power
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme
 UK Renewables Generation
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

UK Renewables generation -2007

27%

Wind
47% Solar
0% Hydro
Biomass

26%

Total renew ables - 19.7TWh Source : BERR

 PV Market Overview
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Demand & Production Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

PV Market Demand 2008

Regional & national shares of global PV cell production Total 5.95 GW
(Source : Photon International 2007)
[source : Solarbuzz LLC]
India 1.4%

China 15.1% Rest of Europe (ROE),

0.31
Japan 36.4%
Rest of the World
United States, 0.36
(ROW), 0.21
USA 6.8%
Germany, 1.86
Japan, 0.23

Rest of Europe Italy, 0.24

8.2%

South Korea, 0.28

Taiwan 6.7%
Germany 20.0%
Rest of Asia 3.7%
Middle East 0.3% Australia 1.3%
Spain, 2.46
Top 10 PV cell producers
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme
 Total investment in solar – 2000-2008
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

© 2009• 9
 UK PV Value Chain
Knowledge Transfer Networks
PV Material Systems Accelerating business innovation;
Current Status A Technology Strategy Board programme

Photovoltaic Materials
Cell Type Efficiency % State of Development
Cell Module
Monocrystalline silicon m-Si 24% 13-17% Industrial scale production
Polycrystalline silicon p-Si 18% 11-15% Industrial scale production
Cell Technology Market Share in 2007
Amorphous silicon a-Si 11-12% 5-8% Industrial scale production (Source : Photon International March 2007)

CIGS CIS 0.2%

Copper Indium Gallium 18% 10-12% Industrial scale production a-Si 4.7%
Diselenide CdTe 2.7% ribbon sheet c-Si 2.6%
Cadmium Telluride CdTe 17% 10-12% Significant and growing share of the TF
market (mostly one company – First Solar)
Organic - 5-8% ** Research Stage
Dye Sensitised DSSC 5-8% ** Pilot Production underway
Gallium Arsenide GaAs 25% ** Mostly aerospace applications
Gallium Arsenide GaAs/InP 25-31% ** Research stage
/Indium Phosphide etc

multi c-Si 46.5% mono c-Si 43.4%

• EPIA expects Thin Film (CdTe, a-Si, CIGS) share of market to grow to 20% by 2010
© 2009• 10
 Organic Solar cells
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

• Efficiencies typically
5-8%
• Market estimated to
be $1billion by 2015
(Nanomarkets)
• Application - portable
consumer products –
e.g. backpacks,
umbrellas and tents
into mobile power
generators
Characteristics of the PV Value chain
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme
 PV value added chain for Crystalline
Knowledge Transfer Networks
silicon solar cells Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

Product & systems Installation

Silicon Wafer Cell Module & service

Si basic Wafer Solar cell Module Other PV Sales & Maintenance

Material production production production system cpts Installation
Highly Crystal Cleaning Cell Inverters Transport Cleaning
purified Si drawing connection
Cleaning & Sawing Layer Lamination Batteries Elevation Repair
separating separation material
processes
Chemicals Etching Diffusion Glass,,EVA, Mounting Wiring
Tedlar material
Etching Frame Cables Sales
Metal Connection Planning
coating box
Measuring Testing Mounting Demount
Packaging Recycling
 UK PV Value Chain
Margins in the C- Si PV Value Chain Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

A photovoltaic system is sold for approximately 7-8$/Watt peak which corresponds to:

• Of the installation price, half

is the module & other half includes:
– Inverter
– Electrical wiring
– Installation
• Today a module is sold for between around
5$/Wp with the following breakdown:

– 1$/Wp for the module

– 1.5$/Wp for the cell
– 2$/Wp for the wafer

• It may be concluded here that, based on the Source : Yole Developpment 2008

shortage of Silicon at the time, the margin of PV

manufacturers is very high.

• Margins are expected to be translated to the module and system supplier with the increase in silicon
production capacity. Some strategic alliances and purchases are occurring across the value chain to position companies
to capture future value -
 C-Si PV Module Price
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Reduction forecast Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

PV Module Price Reduction Forecast

4.5

4 2009 YoY
- 29%
2009 YoY
3.5
Module ASP/Cost[$/W]

- 11%
3

2.5 Profit Margin ~ 15%

2

1.5 Profit Margin < 10%

1

0.5 c-Si Module ASP c-Si Module Manufacturing Cost

Source : Displaybank 2008

 Value chain for thin film solar cells
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

Raw Material Product & systems Installation

Module & service

Processing of Thin film cell Other PV Sales and Maintenance

s/c materials production components Installation
Chemical Sputtering Inverters Transport Cleaning
processes
PECVD Batteries, Elevation Repair
process material
Etching Mounting Wiring Demount
material
Laser Cables Sales Recycling

Various Planning
enrichments
Vacuum Mounting
 UK PV Value Chain
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Margins in the PV Value Chain Accelerating business innovation;
Thin Films A Technology Strategy Board programme

Thin Film Value Chain is similar to the flat panel display industry – far less
players than wafer based PV – higher margins
• Module price approximately 10% lower
than c-Si
• Production cost (a-Si/CIS/CdTe)
1.9$/Wp
• CdTe selling at 1.2$/Wp
• Margin high due to demand (all
technologies) & low capacities
of Thin Film supply products
• Investment required in equipment
is heavy
Source : Yole Developpment 2008
• Rewards can be high – First Solar’s CdTe production facility
has secured 1B$ of orders

© 2009• 17
 Current
Plant construction Pilot Production Production development
R&D Ramp up Production >5MW >25MW status

2006 (or earlier)  Avancis (GER)

Uni-Solar 
SANYO  First Solar   Calyxo (GER)
Kaneka   CIS Solar (GER)
 Mitsubishi  CSG Solar (GER)
Würth  Heavy  ersol (GER)
2007 SHARP   First Solar (US)
 Free energy (FR)
 Honda  Genesis (HU/ESP)
 Honda (JP)
Free energy   SCHOTT  Johanna (GER)
 Kaneka (JP)
 Avancis  ersol  Kenmos (TW)
2008
 Malibu  Sontor  Lambda (MEX)
 Malibu (GER)
Johanna   Nexpower  Mitsubishi HI (JP)
 Signet  Calyxo
 Nexpower (TW)
 Lambda  CSG
 Kenmos  PV Flex (GER)
2009  Solar Plus  SANYO (JP)
 Scheuten (NL)
 Scheuten  SCHOTT (GER)
 SHARP(JP)
 Genesis
 Signet Solar (US)
 CIS Solartechnik  Solar Plus (PT)
2010  Sontor(GER)
 Uni-Solar (US)
 PV Flex  Wurth(GER)

Year of Market Entry Producers Entrants

 a-Si/tandem  a-Si/tandem
 CdTe  CdTe
 CIS/CIGS  CIS/CIGS
 UK PV Value Chain
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Margins in the PV Value Chain Accelerating business innovation;
Production Forecast of Thin Film A Technology Strategy Board programme

CdTe a-Si/micro-Si CIS/CIGS

700
Good value for money
Combined with increased
600
yearly newly built capacity (MW)

capacity allows further

a-Si/μ-Si boom penetration of CdTe
thanks to numerous
500 new entrants and being
only turnkey solution

400
CIS/CIGS offers turnkey
300 solutions at 25/50M,
competitive with in
200 a-Si/μ-Si W ?
CdTe grows through
First Solar and Calyxo.
Capacity increase cannot
100 follow a-Si since
only two suppliers
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source : WTC-consult.de 2008

© 2009• 19
 UK PV Solar cell / module
Knowledge Transfer Networks
companies Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

• 19 UK companies involved in solar cell/module

manufacture and R & D
• Total production capacity in 2009 is 263MW (4%
of world production)
• Two companies - Sharp Electronics UK and
Romag account for 97% of this capacity
• Majority of UK companies are currently in the
development stage.
 UK PV Value Chain Knowledge Transfer Networks
UK Solar cell & module manufacturers Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

• Commercial position of UK based solar cell and module manufacturers

Plant construction Pilot Production Production

R&D Ramp up Production >5MW >100MW Current
development
status
2008 (or earlier)
 EPOD [c,m]  Sharp[m] Producers
 Romag[m]  m-Si/p-Si
 NaREC [c]
 a-Si/tandem
2009
 Advancesis [c]  CST [c]  CdTe
 Quantasol [c]  CIS/CIGS
 Whitfield Solar [m]
 Trackdale [c,m]  III-V
2010  DSSC/Organic
 Solarempower [m]  Helio Dynamics [m]
 QD Related
 SolarStructure [c,m]  G24i [c,m]
Entrants
2011  m-Si/p-Si
 Dyesol UK [c,m]  a-Si/tandem
 CdTe
 CIS/CIGS
2012  DSSC/Organic
 Polysolar [c,m]  III-V
 Ionotec [c]  QD Related

[m] module manufacture, [c] cell manufacture

Year of Market Entry
 UK PV Value Chain
Knowledge Transfer Networks
UK PV Value Chain Data Accelerating business innovation;
UK Solar cell and module manufacturers A Technology Strategy Board programme
Source: enf.cn 2009
Solar module m-Si CIS CPV DSSC
CdTe a-Si
manufacture p-Si CIGS GaAs OPV

Total World 671 5 100 25 45 6

UK 2 - 1 - - 2
Germany 45 1 12 10 2 1
China 372 - 33 1 3 -
USA 23 4 10 6 19 4(17)

World Solar cell m-Si

manufacture p-Si
GaAs UK presence in manufacture of cells and modules is.. minor
UK 1 4
UK Solar cell manufacture :
Germany 10 1
• m-Si, p-Si – NaREC (Pilot Plant only)
Italy 5 1
• GaAs – IQE, CST,Quantasol, Advancesis (prototype only)
Spain 5 -
Other EU 16 - UK Solar module manufacture :
China 73 - • m-Si, p-Si - Sharp, Romag
Japan 4 - • a-Si – EPOD [ Full production facility ! ]
India 13 - • DSSC - Dyesol, G24
Other APAC 25 2
USA 14 6 Opportunity in GaAs, CdTe, DSSC cell and module
Canada 2 -
manufacture
Middle East 2 -
© 2009• 22
 UK PV Complementary
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Technologies Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

Si/TF C-Si/GaAs C-Si/GaAs C-Si Thin Film PV Sales & Maintenance

Basic Material Wafer Solar Cell Module Module System Installation
Production Production Production production components

Highly purified Si Crystal drawing Cleaning Cell connection Sputtering Inverters Transport Cleaning

Cleaning and
Batteries,
separating Sawing Layer separation Lamination PECVD process Elevation Repair
material
process

Demount
Glass, EVA, Mounting
Chemicals Etching Diffusion Etching Wiring
Tedlar material

Recycling
Chemical Processes Etching Frame Laser Cables Sales

Various
Metal coating Connection box enrichm Planning
ents

Measuring Testing Vacuum Mounting

Packaging
 UK PV Complementary Technologies
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

• Mining, processing of raw materials such as Si, Cu, Te,

In etc.
• Sawing machines (Si blocks to form wafers)
• Wafer machines
• Process cleaning
• Cell machines
• Wet chemistry (cleaning , structuring and AR coating)
• Laser technology (contacts, sputtering)
• Vacuum technology (PECVD, sputtering, monocrystalline
Si production)
• Printing machines (contacts)
 UK PV Complementary
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Industry Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

• 63 UK companies involved in equipment

for PV manufacturing
• UK companies are involved across the PV
value chain
• Materials and equipment expertise for PV
manufacture is a UK strength with several
world class companies
• Particular strengths in thin film and III-V
CPV solar cell production.
 UK PV Value Chain
UK PV Value Chain Data Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
UK PV Value Chain Overview A Technology Strategy Board programme

Raw Materials Supply Vacuum Equipment Wafer Processing Laser Micromaching Coatings films,
Equipment Equipment Metallisation &
Electrapolymers Edwards Busbar
STS Oxford Lasers
ABSCO Materials Consarc ACC silicones
Layton technologies OpTEK Systems
Epichem (Sigma Aldrige) General Vacuum Solarwire
Equipment Logitech M-Solv
Pilkington Electrapolymers
Applied Oerlikon Optics UK Ltd
Pi-KEM Microengineering CPFilms

Keeling & Walker

Screen Printing
Merck Speciality Equipment
Chemicals
MCI Cambridge
PV Crystalox Solar Wafer based solar Thin Film based solar
DEK Printing Machines
MCP
Analysis, Metrology
Deposition Equipment Equipment
Gencoa LSA
Oxford Instruments CERAM
Cell Manufacturer National R&D Centres Module Manufacturer
Applied Multilayers Energy Equipment
EPOD EPSRC III-V Centre EPOD Testing
Veeco
G24 CREST G24 Micro Materials
Oxford Applied
Research NaREC CSER Sharp MATS (UK) Ltd [CSMA]
CVD Technologies CST NaREC Romag Hiden Analytical
Thermco Systems IQE PETEC Dyesol Metryx
PlasmaQuest Dyesol ORS
© 2009• 26
 UK PV Value Chain
Conclusions Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
PV Industry A Technology Strategy Board programme

• Now silicon supply surplus, will drive c-Si cost down, will make a
possibly overpopulated sector very competitive
• Thin film solar highest growth potential - CIGS followed by CdTe –
expected TF to have 20% share of global PV sector by 2010
• Thin film production methods still in development but potential
margins in thin film sector higher than c-Si
• III-V CPV has a lot of potential – limited market report coverage
but a lot of US investment and interest in development of
associated technologies such as concentrator optics
• Feed in Tarrifs – would have a hockey stick effect on domestic PV
industry [Quote – Sharp] – But we do not have the cell and module
manufacturing capacity to capitalise –
• After all that.. It appears margins are probably higher just in
installation..
© 2009• 27
 UK PV Value Chain
Conclusions Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
UK PV Value Chain A Technology Strategy Board programme

• UK has comprehensive, world class value chain capability – except for vital
gaps in – Cell and Module Manufacture – Value chain currently provides goods
to overseas PV industry
• Good news ? Lack of legacy UK Si production facility allows “clean sheet”
approach to development of novel Thin Film production capabilities
• Many UK PV related organisations & associations but no clear central body
(without domestic market their usefulness is questionable - comment by UK PV
industry )
• CdTe, III-V solar sectors – The UK has centres of excellence in these fields
which appears to coincide with market opportunity.
• Market differentiation everything – First Solar [CdTe – 1Billion $ order book] if
UK were to attempt to fill the Cell and Module gaps in the PV value chain
would have to have strong differentiation
• Growing capability in organic solar cells via PETEC, CDT and emerging start ups

© 2009• 28
 UK Feed – in Tariffs
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

• Will we have feed-in tariffs in the UK for PV

installation?
• In July 2009 UK Govt. announced in “The UK
Low Carbon Transition Plan”
“The Government is putting in place financial
rewards for small-scale low carbon electricity
generation, with Feed-in Tariffs from April 2010”
• A household with a well sited photovoltaic
installation could receive over £800 plus bill
savings of around £140 per year.
 Summary
Knowledge Transfer Networks
Accelerating business innovation;
A Technology Strategy Board programme

• UK is a minor player in the global PV cell and

module production
• UK has many companies who support the PV
industry worldwide in terms of production
equipment and materials.
• The UK Govt is about to introduce a form of
“feed-in tariff” for low carbon electricity
generation of which PV is one option.
• This will change the UK PV domestic market
• This will lead to new opportunities for the UK’s
PV solar cell/module manufacturing industry