KELOMPOK 13
Single Order
(Sistem Persediaan Pemesanan Tunggal)
DEFINISI DAN KONSEP
Single order quantities adalah sistem persediaan dengan satu kali
pemesanan untuk satu periode.
Contoh:
ILUSTRASI
KLASIFIKASI PERMASALAHAN
SINGLE ORDER QUANTITIES
PERSEDIAAN PESANAN TUNGGAL
SOURCE
Outside Supply
Self Supply
The Norflok Boys Club paln to sell Christmas trees for the building fund. Local
merchants have placed orders for the trees to be delivered on specified dates, starthing
with the earliest lot on 1 december. When should the order be placed if an 85%
chance of the trees arriving on time is desired? The lead time distribution is given in
table 7-1. TABLE 7-1
Lead Time (days) Number of Occurences
10 10
11 10
12 15
13 20
14 30
15 10
16 5
100
To satisfy all demand, the largest lead time of 16 days would be selected.
Thus, the trees would be ordered 16 days prior to 1 december.
When should the order be placed if an 85% chance of the trees arriving on time is
desired?
TABLE 7-2
Lead Time Probability Probability of
L P(L) Lead Time ≤ L
10 .10 .10
11 .10 .20
12 .15 .35
13 .20 .55
14 .30 .85
15 .10 .95
16 .05 1.00
From table 7-2 , it is seen that if an 85% chance of tress arriving ontime
is desired , the lead time must be 14 days. In this case, the trees should
be ordered 14 days prior to 1 December.
DEMAND VARIABEL DAN LEAD TIME PASTI
Pada permasalahan demand yang tidak pasti namun leadtime pasti, masalah yang harus
dipecahkan yaitu berapa besar order yang harus dilakukan.
Jika demand tidak pasti namun probabilitas demand itu ada, masalah dapat dipecahkan
dengan membuat keputusan berisiko.
Keputusan yang diambil yaitu dengan memperkirakan:
1. Keuntungan tersebesar
2. Biaya terkecil
Dalam membuat keputusan tersebut, perlu ditentukan strategi demand dengan nilai
optimum yang diharapkan
Pada single order kuantiti, probabilitas demand itu kurang atau sama untuk distribusi
diskrit adalah
P(M<=Q) = 1 -
A merchant wish to stock chistmas tree for sale during teh crhistmas season. There
is only enough time for single order. Each tree cost $2.00 and sells for $6.00.
Ordering cost are negligible, and unsold trees can be sold for $1.00 as firewood.
The mercant must order trees in multiples of ten, and the demand distribution during
the season is given in table 7-4. How many trees should be merchant order?
TABLE 7-4
Demand M Probability P(M)
10 .10
20 .10
30 .20
40 .35
50 .15
60 .10
1.00
A payoff matrix is developed (Table 7-5) with teh profit from each strategy and state of nature.
Teh expected value of each strategy is obtained by multipying its probabilities of occurence by
the values of its outcomes and summing the products. The final selection is based on the
strategy with the highest expected value. The best strategy is to order 50 trees with the
expected value $127.50
TABLE 7-5
Probability: 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.10 Expected
Strategy State of Nature: 10 20 30 40 50 60 Value
10 40 40 40 40 40 40 $40.00
20 30 80 80 80 80 80 75.00
30 20 70 120 120 120 120 105.00
40 10 60 110 160 160 160 125.00
50 0 50 100 150 200 200 127.50
60 -10 40 90 140 190 240 122.50
BENEFIT (MARGINAL) ANALYSIS
Using the marginal approach, how many christmas trees should be ordered from the
iformation given in example 2?
From Table 7-6, the optimum stockout probability is between 0.25 and 0.10, so the smaller
value is selected and 50 tress should be ordered
TABLE 7-6
Demand M Probability Probability of Demand > M
10 .10 .90
20 .10 .80
30 .20 .60
40 .35 .25
50 .15 .10
60 .10 .00
1.00
COST ANALYSIS
Expected Cost (EC) = Order Cost + Purchase Cost + Expected Stockout Cost –
Expected Salvage Value
P (M>Q) = P(s) =
EXAMPLE 4
A large departement store has just purchased a new central air contditioning unit.
The lifetime of the air conditioner is estimated at 12 years. The manager must
decide how many compressors to purchase for the unit. If he purchase the
compressors now, they will cost $100 each. If he purchases them when they fail, the
cost will be $1000 each. Table 7-10 gives the probability distribution of the number
of failures of the part during the life of the air conditioner, as supplied by the
manufacturer. The installation cost of the compressor, as well as its salvage value,
is assumed to be negligible. How many compressors should be purchased if the
holding cost is the holding cost is neglected?
TABLE 7-10
No. of Failures, Probability of No.
M Probability of Failures > M
0 .030 .070
1 .040 .030
2 .025 .05
3 .05 .00
With holding cost neglected, the cost matrix can be developed, as shown in table 7-11
TABLE 7-11
Probability: 0.30 0.40 0.25 0.05
Expected Cost
Strategy State of Nature: 0 1 2 3
0 0 1000 2000 3000 $1050
1 100 100 1100 2100 450
2 200 200 200 1200 250
3 300 300 300 300 300
DEMAND DAN LEAD TIME VARIABEL
(DISEBUT JUGA INVENTORI TAK TENTU)
Jarang
ditemukan
• Permintaan tidak pasti
• Lead time tidak pasti
Tapi dalam hal ini cenderung bervariasi dalam hal demand dengan memperhitungkan resiko
dari single order.
Penyebab kejadian hal ini terjadi :
PROFIT
1.OVERSTOCK
2. OUTSTOCK
Profit :
(harga jual x jumlah unit)-(biaya yang
diperlukan dalam pengadaan barang)
CONTOH SOAL :
Q1 = M1 + Z1
= 100 + 0,5x18= 100 + 9 = 109
Q2 = 210
Q3 = 309
Q4 = 407
Total = 1035 roti