NOAA Climate Program:

Status and Directions

Dave Goodrich
NOAA Climate Program Office

NOAA Fisheries Leadership Council

November 30, 2004

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 Program Plan Overview
Mission Goal 2 - Climate

Understand climate variability and change

to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond.

OUTCOMES

• A predictive understanding of the global climate system

with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making
informed and reasoned decisions on timescales of
weeks to decades.
• Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public
effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into
their decisions and plans.

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 Program Plan Objectives

• Describe and understand the state of the climate system through

integrated observations, analysis, and data stewardship.
• Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on
the forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate.
• Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with an
increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions.
• Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and
change in marine ecosystems.
• Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance
public and private sector decision making.

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 Climate Program Structure

Climate Program Director: Chet Koblinsky

Climate Program Element Program Manager

1. Observations and Analysis Tom Karl/NESDIS
2. Climate Forcing Dan Albritton/OAR
3. Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa/OAR
4. Climate and Ecosystems Ned Cyr/NMFS
5. Regional Decision Support Bob Livezey/NWS

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Argo Status - November 2004

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 Observations and Analysis
Objectives

Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated
observations, analysis, and data stewardship:
• A tiered and integrated observational network that provides sustained global and U.S.
monitoring of key climate related parameters;
• An end-to-end data stewardship system to provide climate quality information and
respond to the projected data growth rates;
• Provide sophisticated analyses to differentiate climate variability and change as a result of
natural processes and human activities.

Desired End-State: Integrated and complete ocean and surface, upper air and space
observing systems in support of the mission outcome “a predictive understanding of the
global climate system”:
FY07: Improve climate forecast through observing and data systems with full coverage of
continental US atmosphere and sparse coverage of global ocean, as well as atmospheric
reanalysis of 1920s to 2000.
FY11: Significantly improve global climate forecast with integrated observing and data
systems for US atmosphere and global oceans and atmosphere-ocean reanalysis and
attribution studies of the 20th century.

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 Climate Forcing
Objectives

Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcings

and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth's climate:
• Attain a timely understanding of atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide trends, both natural and
human, that may be directly applied to climate projection and to policy decisions regarding climate
management that are related to limiting unwanted effects of future climate change.
• Provide timely and adequate information on the climate roles of the radiatively important trace
atmospheric species (e.g., fine-particle aerosols and ozone) that is needed to broaden the suite of
non-carbon options available for policy support regarding the climate change issue.

Desired End-State: The understanding needed to link emissions to the radiative forcing of
climate change for science-based decision support in support of the mission outcome “a predictive
understanding of the global climate system”:
FY07: Improve long-term projections on the future state of the climate understanding of aerosol impacts
on Earth’s radiative balance and monitoring carbon over most of North America at coarse resolution.
FY11: Improve projections of the future state of the climate through better understanding of North
American carbon sources and sinks and improved parameterizations of aerosol and water vapor
impacts on the Earth’s radiative balance

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 Predictions and Projections
Objectives

Develop a predictive understanding of the global climate system on timescales of

weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed
decisions
• Improve intraseasonal and interannual climate predictions to enable regional and national managers
to better plan for the impacts of climate variability and change
• Provide improved regional, national, and international climate assessments and projections to
support policy decisions with objective information.

Desired End-State: A seamless suite of forecasts (e.g. outlooks and projections) on

intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal timescales and applications using
ensembles of multiple climate models in support of the mission outcome “a predictive
understanding of the global climate system”:
FY07: Provide regional resolution forecasts to decision makers through increased computer and model
capacity.
FY11: Provide a broader suite of climate forecast products and services through development of Earth
System Model.

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 Climate Regime Shifts and Fisheries
•High vs. low productivity associated with climate regimes
•Need to manage fish stocks with this new paradigm
Warm phase Cool phase Warm phase
Cool phase
 Climate Impacts on Ecosystems
Objectives

Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine
ecosystems
• Predict the probable consequences of global climate change on ecological systems and their living
resources
• Deliver to fisheries and coastal zone managers the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate
climate variability into the management of living marine and coastal resources.
• Develop indicators of climate variability that affect coastal and marine living resources.

Desired End-State: An ability to predict probable consequences of global climate change on ecological
systems and living resources in support of of the mission outcome “a predictive understanding of the
global climate system”:
FY07: Increase understanding of climate decadal change impacts on North Pacific marine ecosystems over
a wider geographic extent.
FY11: Better understanding of place-based impacts of climate variability and change on North Pacific
ecosystems and climate-induced sea level inundation on coastal ecosystems in southeastern US.

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 Regional Decision Support
Objectives

Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public
and private sector decision making
• The climate literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their
regular operations.
• Enhanced public and private sector performance through better access, understanding,
and use of climate information in planning and decision making.
• An operational infrastructure to continually infuse information to decision makers through
product development and delivery.
• A responsive research enterprise focused on identifying the nation’s principal climate
sensitive resource challenges and opportunities and creating knowledge and tools useful
to expanded options for decision makers.

Desired End-State: A mature and efficient system for understanding and responding
to stakeholder needs for products and services in support of mission outcome 2 to
incorporate NOAA products into plans and decisions:
FY07: Improve coordination of research, transition, and operational products and services and
begin to evaluate outcomes
FY11: Expand and improve regional and national services, based on evaluation, such that
operations and management in climate sensitive sectors is markedly improved
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