Introduction to Population

Processes
Stevan Harrell
EARTH II
1 March 2005
What do we Need to Know about
Population?
• What determines population growth?
• What drives population growth?
• How has the world’s population grown through
history?
• How do population growth and density vary in
different kinds of societies?
• How does population growth affect the
environment?
• What does the future look like?
 What determines population
growth?
• Fertility: a measure of births per population per
year
– Crude birth rate: number of births per total population
per year
– Age specific fertility rate: number of births per woman
of a specified age (e.g. 20-24) per year
– Total fertility rate: the average number of children born
per woman: sum of ASFR for all ages
– Net Reproduction Rate: The Average number of
daughters a woman bears in her lifetime
What determines population
growth?
Age structure of a population
 Age-Specific Fertility and TFR

ASFR by 5-year period

Period age cohort 15-19 age cohort 20-24 age cohort 25-29 age cohort 30-34 age cohort 35-39 age cohort 40-44
# women #births ASFR #women #births ASFR #women #births ASFR #women #births ASFR #women #births ASFR #women #births ASFR TFR
1934-49 342 29 0.084795 211 50 0.236967 70 18 0.257143 17 1 0.058824 2 0 0 0 0 0 3.188643
1950-54 217 12 0.0553 144 43 0.298611 141 44 0.312057 53 16 0.301887 15 3 0.2 2 1 0.5 8.339271
1955-59 240 15 0.0625 217 47 0.21659 144 37 0.256944 141 41 0.29078 53 12 0.226415 15 0 0 5.266148
1960-64 452 24 0.053097 240 62 0.258333 217 54 0.248848 144 36 0.25 141 27 0.191489 53 4 0.075472 5.386198
1965-69 589 22 0.037351 452 108 0.238938 240 64 0.266667 217 43 0.198157 144 12 0.083333 141 8 0.056738 4.405919
1970-74 773 11 0.01423 589 139 0.235993 452 86 0.190265 240 14 0.058333 217 5 0.023041 144 2 0.013889 2.678763
1975-79 660 1 0.001515 773 101 0.13066 589 96 0.162988 452 13 0.028761 240 1 0.004167 217 1 0.004608 1.663495
1980-84 688 2 0.002907 660 55 0.083333 773 87 0.112549 589 5 0.008489 452 3 0.006637 240 0 0 1.069575
1985-89 476 0 0 688 60 0.087209 660 94 0.142424 773 40 0.051746 589 9 0.01528 452 3 0.006637 1.516486
1990 --- 180 0 0 653 73 0.111792 1289 16 0.012413 1664 101 0.060697 1881 23 0.012228 1741 0 0 0.985646

1930-39 57 3 0.052632 17 8 0.470588 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.616099

1940-49 285 26 0.091228 194 42 0.216495 68 18 0.264706 17 1 0.058824 2 0 0 0 0 3.156262

Note that TFR, as a sum of age-specific rates,

does not vary directly with CBR: A simple way
to think of it: CBR = (TFR) (p15-44)
 Determinants of Age-specific
Fertility
• Proportion married at each age
– Nuptiality rate
– Age at marriage
• Ratio of marital and non-marital fertility
• Parity progression
• Birth intervals
• Age-specific mortality
 Parity Progression Ratios
Table 2

Cohort Specific Parity-Progression Ratios

Ci County and Xiaoshan, mothers born 1920-1959

Mother 1920-1929 1930-1934 1935-1939 1940-1944 1945-1949 1950-1954 1955-1959

born
Ci Xiao- Ci Xiao- Ci Xiao- Ci Xiao- Ci Xiao- Ci Xiao- Ci Xiao-
county shan County shan County shan County shan County shan County shan County shan
PPR 1-2 .96 1.00 .99 .94 .93 .97 1.00 1.00 .93 .93 1.00 .74 .91 .47
PPR 2-3 .93 .92 .97 .96 1.00 .92 .93 .80 .65 .59 .70 .14 .76 .00
PPR 3-4 .86 .84 .92 .88 .90 .49 .81 .40 .50 .18 .30 .67 .27
PPR 4-5 .77 .79 .81 .53 .75 .32 .63 .17 .33 .09 .43 .00 .14
PPR 5-6 .67 .63 .61

Note: As part of overall fertility decline, ratios at higher parities also decline.
 What determines population
growth?
• Mortality: A measure of deaths per
population per year
– Crude death rate: the number of deaths per total
population per year
– Age specific mortality rate: the number of
deaths per population of a particular age (e.g.1-
4 or 70-74) per year
– Life expectancy: the average number of years
one can expect to live at a particular age
Life Expectancy and Life Span
 Life Table

Note: right hand column is nex, life expectancy at age x. Couldn’t get it to copy.
Age-specific mortality
 Population growth
Very simple: Population growth = CBR-
CDR
The devil is in the details. Some exercises:

Assume the same CBR for the two countries: what will population growth look like?

Assume the same TFR for the two countries. What will CBR look like?
 Population growth
Very simple: Population growth = CBR-
CDR
The devil is in the details. Some exercises:

Assume a NRR of 0.9 for each country. What will the age structure look like in 20 years?
How has the world’s
population grown
through history?
How has the world’s population grown through
history?
 How do population growth and
density vary in different kinds of
societies?
Density of population

Nomadic hunter-gatherers (foragers) <1/mi2

Shifting cultivators 20-30/mi2
Agrarian civlizations 1000/mi2
Industrial societies 2000/mi2
Maximum growth rate
Nomadic hunter-gatherers (foragers) <.02%/yr
Shifting cultivators
Agrarian civilizations .5%/yr
Industrial societies >2%/yr
 What drives population growth?
Measures
• Rising fertility
– Earlier maturation
– Shorter birth interval
– Declining mortality at reproductive age
• Declining mortality
– Control of infectious diseases, particularly in infancy
– Assured food supply
– Medical care??
What Drives Population Growth:
Theories
• Mortality driven:
– Invention of new technologies allows lowered
mortality and excess of births over deaths
– People will reproduce until they come up
against “positive checks” (Malthus)
• Fertility driven:
– Population growth forces people to create new
technologies to accommodate the extra people
– People are capable of limiting their fertility
What Drives Population Growth:
Theories
• Malthus’s Main Points:
• Growth of population and growth of agricultural
production:
– Population grows geometrically
– Production grows arithmetically
• This will eventually lead to a crisis, if unchecked
• Two kinds of checks
– Positive checks
– Preventive checks
What Drives Population Growth:
Theories
• Malthus’s view of different societies:
• England related by preventive checks: moral restraint
– Late marriage
– Non-universal marriage
• China regulated by positive checks
– Early marriage
– Universal marriage
• Let’s look at some of the
– Ethical and cultural assumptions
– Demographic assumptions
How has the world’s population grown through
history?
China’s population, 1000-1850

From Kent J. Deng, “Unveiling Chna’s True Premodern Population Statstics,” Population Review, 2004
How has the world’s population grown through
history?
World population, 1900-2000
How has the world’s population grown through
history?
World population, 1900-2000

From Haines, “Modern Mortality”

How has the world’s population grown through
history?
World population, 1900-2000

From Haines, “Modern Mortality”

How has the world’s population grown through
history?
World population, 1900-2000

From Livi-Bacci, A Concise History of World Population

 Effects of Population Growth

Effects of increasing population density

• Larger group size

• Increased pressure on local resources
• Increased infectious disease morbidity
• Possibilities for increased division of labor
Effects of Population Growth
Effects of faster population growth

• Younger age structure

• More complex families
• Higher rates of migration
• Higher rates of conflict?
What Drives Population Growth:
Demographic Transition
The first half of the Demographic Transtion:
Mortality Decline
Causes of Death

From Haines, “Modern Mortality”

The first half of the Demographic Transtion:
Mortality Decline
Mortality Rates

From Haines, “Modern Mortality”

Mortality from Tuberculosis
Mortality from Infectious Diseases
U.S. Life Expectancy
Fertility and Mortality: Expectation of Lifea
Year White Blackb
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850 38.9
1860 40.9c
1870 44.1
1880 39.6
1890 45.7
1900 49.6
1910 51.9
1920 57.4 47.0
1930 60.8 48.5
1940 65.0 53.9
1950 69.1 60.8
1960 70.7 63.6
1970 71.7 65.2
1980 74.4 68.1
Current world life expectancy and infant
mortality
The Second Half of the Demographic
Transition: Fertility
Some representative Total Fertility Rates
Country TFR 1985 TFR 2000
Rwanda 7.8 5.7
Malawi 7.4 5.3
Bangladesh 5.5 3.1
India 4.3 3.1
Mexico 3.9 2.8
USA 1.8 2.1
Japan 1.7 1.5
China 1.5 1.7
Italy 1.5 1.3
World 4.2 2.8
The Second Half of the Demographic
Transition: Fertility

U.S. Birth RatesFertility and Mortality: Birthratea

Year White Blackb
1800 55.0
1810 54.3
1820 52.8
1830 51.4
1840 48.3
1850 43.3 58.6c
1860 41.4 55.0d
1870 38.3 55.4e
1880 35.2 51.9f
1890 31.5 48.1
1900 30.1 44.4
1910 29.2 38.5
1920 26.9 35.0
1930 20.6 27.5
1940 18.6 26.7
1950 23.0 33.3
1960 22.7 32.1
1970 17.4 25.1
1980 14.9 22.1
 The Second Half of the Demographic
Transition: Fertility

• What drives fertility decline?

– Mortality decline
– Declining value of children with
• Urbanization
• Professionalization
• Cost of Education
– Women’s education
– Contraceptive availability
 Pre-and Post-Transition
Populations

High fertility High fertility Low fertility

High mortality Low mortality Low mortality
AIDS and Mortality
Sam Clark’s Gwembe Tonga Study
AIDS and Mortality
Sam Clark’s Gwembe Tonga Study
AIDS and Mortality
Sam Clark’s Gwembe Tonga Study
AIDS and Mortality
Sam Clark’s Gwembe Tonga Study
How does population growth
affect the environment?
Some adverse affects, all else being equal

• Decreased habitat for other species

• Resource depletion
- Changes in land cover
- Deforestation and loss of carbon sinks
- Extinction of prey species
• Pollution
- Nitrogen from fertilizers and wastes
- Sulfur from combustion
 How does population growth
affect the environment?
But: all else is never equal

I = PAT:

Impact = population x affluence x technology

 How does population growth
affect the environment?
But: all else is never equal

Ecological footprint: The amount of land it

takes to support one person (in hectares)
What does the future look like?
Some representative Total Fertility Rates
Country TFR 1985 TFR 2000
Rwanda 7.8 5.7
Malawi 7.4 5.3
Bangladesh 5.5 3.1
India 4.3 3.1
Mexico 3.9 2.8
USA 1.8 2.1
Japan 1.7 1.5
China 1.5 1.7
Italy 1.5 1.3
World 4.2 2.8
What does the future look like?
What does the future look like?

I = PAT:
The effects of population growth on the
environment will be magnified by increases
in the affluence of world populations
What does the future look like?
An aging population
 What does the future look like?
If the world population levels off at 10 billion mid-century

And global TFR declines to 1.9 and stays there, population in

3000 will be 2.14B, around the 1950 level

And global TFR declines to 1.7 and stays there, population in

3000 will be 76M, probably about the 2000 B.C.E. level

And global TFR declines to 1.3 and stays there, population

in 3000 will be 24K