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Applied Innovation Series:

Predicting The Future of IT


Presented by Stephen Lahanas
Copyright 2011, Semantech Inc., All Rights Reserved

Introduction
This presentation represents an attempt to travel through time and see the future. The future will consist of many things were interested in seeing how Information Technology will evolve over the next ten years or so. There are no guarantees with prediction and often times predictions become self-fulfilling if we want something bad enough we might make it happen sooner (and the opposite may apply as well).
Web Servers are predict the future is are The main reason weone thing, Nuclear Reactors because it a bit more dangerous there are systems which represents the only effective mechanism to help absolutely must not FAIL. prepare for it.
Copyright 2011, Semantech Inc.

Key developments often occur at Nexus points where trends merge together or when a critical realization is made
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Predicting The Future


Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.
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Predicting is not Visioning


Making accurate predictions is an art form; one must assess the realm of the possible and extrapolate the realm of the probable from it. There is also a difference between visioning the future and predicting near-term achievable and / or likely developments. Visioning tends to seem more accurate because it extends across decades and is less specific. Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are Predictions more dangerousmore precise because of the a bit tend to be there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. near-term specific expectations that are identified.
Copyright 2011, Semantech Inc.

Prediction Categories
This presentation will separate our predictions across three key categories: 1. Prediction of Major IT Trends 2. Prediction of Future IT Practices 3. Prediction of IT Impacts on Everyday Life The Trends category will attempt to capture key overarching developments or directions for IT. With Practices we will examine what tomorrows Web Servers doing. IT workers will beare one thing, Nuclear Reactors are And lastly, well examine impacts on everyday life.
Copyright 2011, Semantech Inc.

a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.

What is Information Technology


One of the trends weve already begun witnessing is the growing convergence between what was viewed as a separate discipline with those practices it supports. Information Technology (IT) no longer stands as its own domain it has become irrevocably integrated with nearly every other activity in modern life. IT is more than hardware, more than software, more than design, more than data, more than Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous digital communications there are systems which franca it is the new lingua absolutely must not FAIL. of modern civilization.
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Whether we like it or not, weve become a generation of IT Geeks Internet Gaming, Facebook, Digital HD Television, Internet Telephony, iPads, Smartphones Even Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systemswithout IT is imagining a lifestyle which absolutely must not FAIL. now becoming difficult.
Copyright 2011, Semantech Inc.

Our Predictions for IT


Our methodology for this exercise is based upon two primary elements: 1. A survey of existing & emerging technology in 2011. 2. A analysis of the key business problems associated with IT practice over the past 20 years. Our predictions represent an analysis of what likely technologies will be one thing, Nuclear Reactors are they will used in 2021 and how Web Servers are a bit more dangerous there to explain why be exploited. We will also tryare systems which we absolutely must not FAIL. believe this will be the case.
Copyright 2011, Semantech Inc.

Predictions: IT Trends
Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.
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Sometimes the destination is obvious the result of a logical progression; other times we take unexpected turns. Prediction must account for the human factor.
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Trends & Hype Cycles


When analyzing or predicting trends it is important not to confuse Trends and Hype Cycles. While Trends & Hype Cycles are often concurrent, they are not always the same. A Hype Cycle is a deliberate industry marketing effort A trend on the other hand represents more of an informal consensus or direction that drives the market. For example, right now Cloud Computing is a Hype CycleServers are combines elements are multiple yet it one thing, Nuclear Reactors of Web a bit more dangerous there are systems which trends including Virtualization & Infrastructure absolutely must not FAIL. Consolidation and web services standards.
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Crosscutting Trend Dynamism


Realization Hard coding all aspects of both infrastructure and application / data capability is costly. It is even more complicated when translated across dozens or hundreds of systems or services. Impact with increasing data, expanding application inventories and more complex requirements, IT providers will need to find more efficient ways of managing their portfolios. Dynamic IT This is the cross-cutter. IT departments will adopt a variety of Dynamic technologies & Web Servers are away from static, hard-coded techniques moving one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which solutions. Evolution becomes continuous rather than absolutely must not FAIL. transformational.
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Everything in Nature which appears to be solid & static is in fact flexible and dynamic

Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.

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Infrastructure Consolidation
This is perhaps our easiest prediction because this trend has already been underway for more than five years. Infrastructure Consolidation includes process integration, regional data center consolidation, application & data management consolidation, security coordination and facility management elements. Centralization & Redistribution comes in cycles though. 2021 will represent the end of the current consolidation trend and the beginning of the next de-centralization Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are trend. Decentralization will return as data, applications a bit more dangerous there are systems which & hardware become more dynamic and less complex absolutely must not FAIL. to manage.
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Capability Consolidation
This is another trend that has been underway for the past decade (through such solution approaches as ERP). Capability Consolidation will reach its zenith around 2021. Combined software / service (SAAS) will become more successful, less costly to implement. This will mark the beginning of a new round of differentiating capability. Now that someare the of Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors a bit more dangerous there are systems which basics have been mastered new capabilities will absolutely must not FAIL. begin to enter mainstream IT.
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Consolidation & Standardization occurred with modern industrialization before the advent of IT since then it continues to be reinvented on a regular basis.
Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.

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Rapid Hardware Evolution


Hardware has been evolving rapidly over past decade. This trend will accelerate substantially. Hardware will become more versatile, there will be more overlap between business and consumer hardware and hardware will become about 100x more efficient (speed, memory, features) by 2021. New advances in variable state memory (quantum computing) exploitation of new understanding of static electricity and trends for energy efficiency will leave all current H/W obsolete very quickly. Hardware costs will Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are not lower much beyond current price ranges. Cost a bit more dangerous there are systems which differences between new products (introduction) and absolutely must not FAIL. older product lines will narrow
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Crosscutting Trend Intelligence


Realization The main reason Artificial Intelligence failed to realize its potential over the past 20 years was due to misplaced expectations. The application of intelligence does not require machines to think for themselves, but merely to aid our thinking Impact This trend will redefine the nature of analytics but will not unleash the machine apocalypse. Machines will not become sentient, but we will be empowered to do much more cross domain examination and problem solving. This should lead to an explosion in innovation. Intelligent IT Intelligence is viewed as Cognitive Enhancement rather than replacement. IT Intelligence and end users will be viewed as symbiotic partners.
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Why worry about evil supercomputers Webwhen there are so many unpleasant Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bitpeople we could worry about instead ? more dangerous there are systems which
absolutely must not FAIL.
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Semantic Intelligence
Many people have heard of the Semantic Web, many others saw a computer defeat Jeopardys all time champions this year there is a connection. While Watson, the IBM supercomputer who made headlines on Jeopardy wasnt built entirely around Semantic Web standards, it was built around the premise that Semantic Reasoning is perhaps the most important tool we have in helping to sift through massive amounts of data rapidly.
Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are Semantic Intelligence represents the systematic a bit exploitation more dangerous there standards as well as of both semantic are systems which absolutely must not FAIL. core semantic computing principles / techniques.
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Semantics is the Alpha & Omega

Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.

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Collaborative Intelligence
The second most valuable tool we will have is each other. We are at the brink of what will eventually come to be known as Collaborative Intelligence or Cognition. In some ways we are already experiencing this in a delayed sense through open source software and collective commons. The real power though of Collaborative Cognition will be the power are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are thought to harness expertise and Web Servers a bit more dangerous there are in near-real across communities of practicesystems which time absolutely must not FAIL. and eventually real-time.
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Collaboration Makes Sense

Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.

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Predictions: IT Practice
Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.
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What is IT Practice ?
IT Practice is similar to other practices (like Accounting or Law or Medicine) in that it involves a similar set of activities built atop a core foundation of skills, knowledge and capabilities. IT Practice is different though in that there is a built in expectation for dynamic change at the fundamental level. While Doctors, Lawyers and Accountants are fundamentally the same asNuclear were 100 years they Reactors are Web Servers are one thing, bit more dangerous there are systems which ago ITaexperts didnt exist yet. Since then the absolutely must not FAIL. field has redefined itself many times
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IT Practice will always have new goals, targets and approaches. The key is solving todays challenges so we can move to tomorrows

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What is an IT Practice ?
Just as within Law or Medicine there are specialized sub-disciplines so to in IT are focused practice areas. Today those practices include; Enterprise Resource Planning Consulting, Management Consulting, Data Modeling & Development, Application Development, Infrastructure Deployment, Business Intelligence / Analytics and so on. There are more than a dozen practice areas with dozens of industry variations.
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Example of Integrated IT Practices

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Prediction: Enterprise in a Box


The consolidation trends will lead to a new IT practice which might also be referred to as Turn-Key Transformation. The idea behind this would be that within one engagement the provider would take care of all H/W (whether onsite or Cloud), all process engineering, all software, all data transformation, all application logic transformation and all related support requirements all at the same time. This makes sense as a logical progression of current trends & there will always need to be some level of customization. It is the end of a trend though
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The Science of Cyber Attack

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Prediction: Holistic Cyber Security


As Steve Martin used to say, Cyber Security aint pretty. Well, maybe he didnt say that but he should have. The practice of Cyber Security right now is fractured into a number of loosely related disciplines. The problem is theres one enterprise to secure and no uniform approach for securing it. This places most enterprises at risk and is making Cyber attack more profitable for criminals and more attractive for terrorists. By 2021, Holistic Cyber Security will be the most important of all IT practices. This will happen because it has to happen in order for us to survive
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The Power to Learn

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Prediction: Dynamic Learning


In the late 1990s, Many people thought e-learning would be the Internets killer application 12 years later, that hasnt happened yet. Why, because pedagogy & technology couldnt agree on what learning really is and what it can become. These questions are in the process of resolving themselves right now and will result in a new approach to education Dynamic Learning by 2021. Dynamic Learning will leverage Collaborative Cognition, Semantic Intelligence and dynamic system capabilities like curriculum mapping and on the fly content creation or harvesting
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Predictions: Everyday Impacts


Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are a bit more dangerous there are systems which absolutely must not FAIL.
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Consumer Device Consolidation


Most people now have a myriad of devices to manage cell phones, televisions, desktop computers, laptops, ipads, MP3 players, cameras, ebook readers, videogames and the list goes on. What we will see in the next ten years is more pragmatism. The number of devices will shrink and their feature sets will encompass what were multiple devices before. This is an extension of a current trend. In 2021 we will have 1 device which does everything with multiple Web Servers are and a Nuclear Reactors are projection capabilitiesone thing,detachable handheld unit. a bit more dangerous there are systems which The handheld unit will be pluggable into cars and other absolutely must not FAIL. computing platforms outside the home.
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Technology & Democracy

Knowledge is made up of many building blocks, over the next 10 years an ever-growing portion of the human race will be contributing new blocks
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Knowledge Democratization
This is another example of an existing trend which will reach something close to its full potential by 2021. Knowledge Democratization is the notion that development, interpretation and dissemination of Knowledge will be managed by an ever growing number of people (mainly through collaborative toolsets and later using Semantic and Collaborative Intelligence). Anyone can be an expert if they apply themselves to a subject this Knowledge Democracy will foster creativity, fairness and innovation.
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Conclusion
In many ways 2021 will seem a lot like today. For IT practitioners many of the technologies or approaches currently being used will still be around many will have evolved and a few will disappear. The real difference ten years from now will be the ease with which we begin to manage large data sets and to combine applications, processes and data from different areas to solve tasks in a more unified fashion. This will come not because we design all possible variations into systems, but because we begin designing more adaptive systems.
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Semantech Inc. is InnovationWorx


Semantech Inc. is a solutions provider founded in 2007. Our company is located in the Dayton, Ohio metro area. Since our inception we have supported clients in a more than half a dozen industries nationwide. Our company represents a unique approach were not offering just IT or Management Consulting. We specialize in facilitating complex organizational Transformations. This is why InnovationWorx was created. Semantech was founded to facilitate change
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Defining Reality

Reality is a shared conceptual perspective of the world around us. As we contribute new ideas to that perspective reality changes
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The Future Begins with an idea


Innovation represents the deliberate attempt to change current reality. Those who believe that things can be better or can be done better have the motivation to pursue change Innovation is the roadmap or blueprint for that change. The Future consists of thousands of such blueprints coming together to build a new reality Web Servers are one thing, Nuclear Reactors are InnovationWorx is dedicated to providing a bit more dangerous there are systems which consistent and actionable Innovation for you absolutely must not FAIL.
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