HOW WELL IS ARIZONA PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE

May 2011

Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?

A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school such as an associates or bachelors degree, certificate, license, or completion of an apprenticeship or significant on-the-job training. Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school without the knowledge and skills required for success, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities. The best way to prepare students for life after high school is to align K-12 and postsecondary expectations. All students deserve a worldclass education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NO LONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESS

The changing economy is accelerating the expectations gap, as careers increasingly require some education/training beyond high school, and more developed knowledge and skills.

Jobs in Todays (and Tomorrows) Workforce Require More Education and Training

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs

High-skill jobs
Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories. Often require four-year degrees and above

Middle-skill jobs
Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.

Low-skill jobs
Occupations in the service and agricultural categories.

Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelors degree), including associates degrees, vocational certificates, significant on-the-job training.
Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs. Brookings Institution.

Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level

Source: National Skills Coalition (2010). The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/assets/reports-/the-bridge-to-a-new-economy.pdf ; National Skills Coalition (2011). State Middle Skill Fact Sheets. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/resources/fact-sheets/state-fact-sheets/

Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces Arizonas Supply

 I

950, 60% f j l it i r i r t

r l ifi l i l ill .

ill rl .

, tt i ,l t

l 0% f j

 One result: The emand f r middle- and hi h- illed r er i t acing the tate l f r er educated and experienced at that level.
7 f Ariz na j b are middle- r highpostsecondary education or training). ill (jobs that require some

Yet only 3 of Arizonas adults have some postsecondary degree (associates or higher).

Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

Education and Training Beyond High School Is Increasingly Being Demanded

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition. http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm

The Jobs of Tomorrow

Arizona should be preparing students for the jobs of tomorrow, not the jobs of yesterday or even today.
A quarter of American workers are now in jobs not even listed in the Census Bureaus occupation codes in 1967. Given the growth of new job sectors most notably green jobs it is common sense to provide all students with a strong foundation that keeps all doors open and all opportunities available in the future.

Source: Milano, Jessica, Bruce Reed & Paul Weinstein Jr. (Sept 2009). A Matter of Degrees: Tomorrows Fastest Growing Jobs and Why Community College Graduates Will Get Them. The New Democratic Leadership Council.

The Public Agrees That Education or Training Beyond High School is Necessary for Future Success

87

To really get ahead in life, a person needs more than just a high school education.

To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some education beyond high school, whether that means university, community college, technical or vocational school.

Source: Achieve, Inc. (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career-Ready Agenda. http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf

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Americas International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

10

20

30

40

50

60

% Young Adults (25-34) with College Degree

% Adults (25-64) with College Degree

Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecdilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

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Americas International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment

% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2
- 4 1 2 3 4 U.S. (40%) Canada (40%) N.Z. (34%) Finland (29%) Australia (28%) Norway (28%) 7 8 Switz. (27%) U.K. (27%) Sweden (26%) 1 11 12 13 14 1 Neth. (26%) Denmark (26%) Japan (26%) Germany (24%) Iceland (24%) Belgium (22%) 4 - 4 Canada (44%) Japan (43%) U.S. (40%) N.Z. (38%) Finland (37%) Australia (33%) Denmark (32%) Norway (32%) Switz. (31%) Neth. (31%) Iceland (30%) U.K. (30%) Belgium (29%) Sweden (28%) Ireland (27%) 3 -44 Canada (54%) Japan (48%) Finland (44%) U.S. (43%) Korea (43%) N.Z. (40%) Norway (38%) Australia (38%) Denmark (37%) Ireland (37%) Switz. (36%) Iceland (36%) Belgium (35%) U.K. (33%) Sweden (33%) AZ (34%) 2 -34 Korea (58%) Canada (56%) Japan (55%) N.Z. (48%) Norway (46%) Ireland (45%) Denmark (43%) Belgium (42%) Australia (42%) U.S. (42%) Sweden (41%) France (41%) Neth. (40%) Spain (39%) Luxembourg (39%) AZ (32%)

ALL (2 - 4) Canada (49%) Japan (43%) U.S. (41%) N.Z. (40%) Finland (37%) Korea (37%) Norway (36%) Australia (36%) Denmark (34%) Ireland (34%) Switz. (34%) U.K. (33%) Belgium (32%) Neth. (32%) Sweden (32%) AZ (3 %) 12

4 - 4: Arizona (3 %)

Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance2010_eag-2010-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

FAR TOO MANY STUDENTS DROP OUT OR GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL UNPREPARED FOR REAL WORLD CHALLENGES

Of Every 100 9th Graders in Arizona

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

3 21 1

9th Graders

Grad ate Enroll in igh hool College In the in 4 ears Fall

till Enrolled ophomore ear of College

Earn a College Degree

Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. http://www.higheredinfo.org

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Achievement Remains Low: 8th Grade Achievement Over Time

% At or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP

8th Grade Math

Arizona U.S.

2
29% 34%

15% 21%

8th Grade Reading

Arizona U.S.

2
27% 32%

28% 33%

8th Grade Science

Arizona U.S.

1
23% 29%

2
22% 30%

Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

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And Gaps Persist: Arizonas 8th Grade Achievement Gap

% At or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP

Subgroup
All Students White Black Hispanic Asian American Indian

8th Grade Math (2 )

29% 42% 23% 16% 52% 12%

8th Grade Reading (2

27% 39% 21% 15% 56% 13%

8th Grade Science ) (2 )

19% 35% 8% 10% 43% 7%

Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

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High School Graduation Rates Remain Inequitable in Arizona

81% 77% 69% 68% 74% 54% 70% 56% 60%

82% 51% 48%

90% 0% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

All

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

American Indian

Source: Education Week (2007). Graduation in the United States. http://www.edweek.org/media/ew/dc/2010/34sos_gradrate.pdf

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Americas International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates

Ari ona U.S. Korea Poland Canada Israel Germany Denmark Ireland Norway Netherlands U.K. Iceland

20

40

60

80

100

% Young Adults (25-34) with HS Diploma+

% Adults (25-64) with HS Diploma+

Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2010. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecdilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

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Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness

Percentage of U.S. first-year students in two-year and four-year institutions requiring remediation

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.

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73% of Arizona high school graduates are admitted to the Arizona University System (four-year institutions) witho t academic deficiencies (in placement and/or course requirements).

Source: Arizona Board of Regents, 2009-10 High School Report Card. http://azregents.asu.edu/ABOR%20Reports/2009-10%20High%20School%20Report%20Card.pdf

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Freshmen at Two-Year Colleges are More Likely to Require Remediation

Percentage of U.S. first-year students requiring remediation, by institution type 42% 35% 23% 20% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 5% 0% 5% 0%

20%

16% 9% 6%

Math

Writing

Reading

Reading, Writing or Math

Public 2-Year Colleges

Public 4-Year Colleges

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Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2003). Remedial Education at DegreeGranting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.

Many College Students Fail to Return Their Sophomore Year and Go On To Earn Degrees

75% 72% 54% 51% 56% 55% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

U.S. Arizona Persistence (2Year) Persistence (4Year)

Completion (4-Year)

Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Retention Rates First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates. http://www.higheredinfo.org/

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Many College Students Fail to Earn a Degree in Arizona

Percent of students earning a bachelors degree within six years in Arizona, 2007

Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.

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The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses, Particularly in Mathematics
Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area Math

Science

English

Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Washington, DC: Achieve.

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A MORE RIGOROUS & RELEVANT HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION WILL OPEN DOORS FOR STUDENTS AND KEEP THEM OPEN

Personal Benefits of Education in Arizona

While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and and off r l c rity than jobs graduates, they often pay l held by those with at least some postsecondary experience. The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:

More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.

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Personal Benefits of Education in Arizona

Arizona Statistics: Total Unemployment: 10%, Mean Income: $43,860

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstc/cps_table_creator.html 27

Benefits to Education

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through
2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on authors analysis of March 2008 CPS data.

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Arizonas Students Taking College Admissions Exams

2010
Participation in ACT Average ACT Score Participation in SAT Average SAT Score

Arizona
28% 20 25% 1544

U.S.
47% 21 47% 1509

Source: ACT (2010). ACT 2009 Results. http://www.act.org/news/data/09/states.html ; College Board. Mean 2010 SAT Scores by State. http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/2010-sat-trends.pdf

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Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark

Percentage of ACT-tested graduates who met or exceeded the College Readiness Benchmark score 52% 43% 29% 24% 19% 23% 39% 46%

66% 56% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

All 4 tests, 2010

Science, 2010

English, 2010 Reading, 2010 Math, 2010

Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses.
Source: ACT (2010). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State. http://www.act.org/news/data/10/benchmarks.html?utm_campaign=cccr10&utm_source=data10_l eftnav&utm_medium=web#benchmark 30

Students Participating in Advanced Placement and Exceeding College and Career Readiness
Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2008)

Source: College Board (2011). AP Report to the Nation. http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/7th-annual-ap-report-to-the-nation-2011.pdf

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THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP

All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

The College- and Career-Ready Agenda

Align high school standards with the demands of college and careers.

Require students to take a college- and career-ready curriculum to earn a high school diploma.

Build college- and career-ready measures into statewide high school assessment systems.

Develop reporting and accountability systems that promote college and career readiness.

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Arizonas Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date

In 2008 Arizona adopted K-12 academic standards in math and English aligned with college- and career-ready expectations. In 2007 Arizona raised their high school graduation requirements to the college- and career-ready level. Arizonas data system currently satisfies seven essential Data Quality Campaign elements; Arizona is committed to building a P-20 longitudinal data system that matches student-level data across K12 and postsecondary systems on a regular basis. Arizona adopted the Common Core State Standards in June 2010. Arizona is a Governing State in the Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers (PARCC), a consortium of states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds.

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How Arizona Can Continue to Build on its Momentum

Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes. Remain committed to the goals of PARCC and developing a nextgeneration, computer-based assessment system anchored by collegeand career-ready tests in high school that will let students know if they are ready for college-level coursework and measure the full range of the Common Core State Standards. Continue to make progress on the states data collection efforts, particularly around making student data available to relevant stakeholders and linking K-12 and postsecondary student-level data. Re-examine the states K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness, in alignment with the states standards and course requirements.

HOW WELL IS ARIZONA PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE
May 2011