Investment Opportunities in Agriculture & Agribusiness

Presentation for delegation from Czech Republic February 2, 2008

Ministry of Food, Agriculture & Livestock Government of Pakistan

By: Akram Khalid

Agriculture Overview
  

Contribution to GDP Labor Force Employment

= 21.6% = 42.1%

Average Growth rate in last two decades = 4.0% (1980s - 5.4 1990s - 4.4 2001-04 - 1.1 2004-05 - 6.7 2005-06 - 2.5 2006-07 - 4.5%) Contribution of different Sub-Sectors in Agriculture a) Crops = 47.5% b) Livestock = 49.6% c) Fisheries = 1.3% d) Forestry = 1.6% Share in Export Earnings (Raw/Processed) a) Cotton + Cotton Based Products = 64.7% b) Fruits, Rice, Fish, Leather = 18.2% c) Others = 17.1%

Area Distribution
Total area 79.60 million hectares  Cultivated area37.10%  Culturable waste 11.5%  Non-arable.. 31.0% .  Area under horticultural crops is about 6% (fruits sharing 69% ; vegetables 31%)  The average farm size 3.1 hectares


Employment in Agriculture Sector

Agricultural Sector Employment 20 Numbers (Million) 15 10 5 0 2001-02 2003-04 Total Male Female 60 50 Percent share 40 30 20 10 0 1998 2005 Agriculture Industry Services Sectoral GDP share

Fig. I-1: Sectoral GDP Share and Agriculture Sector Employment5

Production & Export of Fruits/ Vegetables

16000 14000 Quantity (000 tonne 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 19992000 20002001 20012002 20022003 20032004 20042005 Production Export Potential surplus

Production of Priority Fruits & Vegetables in 000 tons

Citrus Mango Dates Apple Apricot Peach Plum Grape Potato Onion 2458 1754 583 351 197 70 60 48 1568 2056

Distribution by Area
Citrus Dates Apple Apricot Peach Others Mango Guava Banana Grapes Pear
23%

Onion Chillies Turnip Cauliflower Radish Garlic

24%

Potato Tomato Lady Finger Peas Brinjal Others

23%

13% 1% 2% 2% 4% 4%

1% 2% 14% 19% 2% 2% 2%3% 3% 8% 9% 21%

8% 10%

Fig.I-4: Total Area (%) of Fruits (2005-06)

Fig.I-5: Total Area (%) of Vegetables (2005-06)

Production of Fruits

1% 14% 1% 1% 3% 2% 5% 30% Citru M ngo tes Gu pp e Banana Apricot 9% Grapes Peach 9% 25% Plum thers

Production of Vegetables

Onion 25% 25% Potato Chillies Tomato Turnip Lady Finger 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 4% 29% 6% 1% Cauliflower Peas Radish Brinjal Garlic Others

Coastline (km)

1050

Square kilometers

Water Resources

Marine (EEZ) Inland Rivers Dams/Canals Lakes Indus Delta Flood area Farms

250000 79200 31900 1500 31400 3800 1000 600

Fisheries Overview
   

  

Production 0.6 mmt (marine 63% & inland 37%) Value $ 300 million Aquaculture45% (solely inland prod.) Consumption: - Domestic 0.3mmt -50% (1.8 vs 16.1 kg/per capita pa world) - Export 0.12mmt 19 % ( $ 200 million) - Fish meal 0.18mmt 31 % Source of livelihood 400,000 fishermen Potential for export $ 1 billion pa Potential domestic consumption 1 mmt
Source MFD

Prospects & Potential of Fisheries

Base year 2005 edium growth Scenario ( 5 %) 2010 High growth Scenario (10%) 2010

PRODUCTION
(mmt) arine Inland EXPORT Quantity (mmt) Value (million $) After value addition (million $) 0.441 0.171 0.590 0.229 0.781 0.303

0.105 156

0.141 209 860

0.186 276 1137

Source

FD

Livestock in National Economy

        

Agriculture in Pak GDP 21.6 % Livestock in Pak GDP 10.7 % Share in agri GDP 49.5 % Livestock in export 8.5 % Dependent families > 6.5 m Provides raw material for industry Social security for rural poor Security against crop failure in barani areas Growth rates 1990s 4.5% 2000-2006 3.8%
Economic Survey (2005-6)

Livestock & Dairy Sector Potential

Parameter Base (2004-2005) 3.0 (milk) 2.7 (meat) 29.47 2010 (MTDF) 2010 (High Road) 10.0 (milk) 8.5 (meat) 47.465

Growth rate (%) Milk

(million tons)

8.0 (milk) 5.1 (meat) 43.304

Meat (thousand
tons)

2278

2924

3425

Supply and Demand Issues

 

Demand for livestock products is increasing Population growth rate and increased income are the real reasons Increase in red meat prices clearly indicate supply gap Tremendous scope for export (rising trend each year) Technology gap shows scope for increased production

Meat Availability in Pakistan

(Kg/annum)

Availability Total utton Beef Poultry eat eat

2004-05 14.51 4.74 7.13 2.64

Economic Survey 2004-05

Domestic Scene .Continued

 

Sustained and robust economic growth in Pakistan (approximately 7%) 77% increase in consumption expenditure since 2003; Per capita income USD 2976 (Source: Wikipedia) Stable currency since 2001; Increasing foreign exchange reserves Growing living standards- changing life styles, food preferences World Bank ranks Pakistan

  

74 in Ease of Doing Business 19 in Protecting Investors

Domestic Scene


Fifth largest producer of milk in the world (37.35m tons) - Only 5% is processed; Imported 0.299m tons milk & milk products worth Rs.2.7b in 2005-06 Producer of quality mangoes, dates and citrus Availability of high value vegetables throughout the year; exports 0.111m tons Fourth largest exporter of dates by exporting only 13% of its dates; Production 0.583m tons Sixth largest exporter of mangoes by exporting only 2.2 % of its mangoes; Production 1.75m tons High growth potential in value addition products
ref: FAO Stats, Economic Survey of Pakistan 06, TradeMap

 

International Scene


Cutting of agriculture subsidies (export credits) by developed countries by 2013 USDA and FAO commodity outlook forecasts indicate increase in agriculture commodity prices including horticulture, dairy and meat Countries having capacity to export international quality surpluses will eventually benefit

Major Investment Opportunity Areas

     

Livestock Fisheries Dairy Horticulture Value Addition Corporate Agriculture

Investment Opportunities
         

Continued

Wholesale fruit & vegetable, and livestock markets Flower markets Tissue culture centres and quality assurance laboratories Fresh fruits, and vegetable processing units such as washing, waxing, grading and packing Fruit pulp, concentrate, paste and juice units Fruits and vegetables dehydration Frozen fruits and vegetables units Cool chains including cold storage, CA Storage, mobile refrigeration units Manufacturing of cold storages and refrigerated services Greenhouse farming and greenhouse supplies

Investment Opportunities
        

.Continued

Flora-house for trading of cut-flowers, pots, soil, bedding plants and foliage Food-grade paper, plastic and tin plated can production Packaging and printing units Spices processing and packaging units Organic fruit and vegetable production Certified seed and planting material production units Poultry Meat Processing Units Fisheries

Investment Opportunities in Agriculture & Agribusiness

Thank you!
Ministry of Food, Agriculture & Livestock Government of Pakistan