China and the Global

Publishing Market

Publishing Workshop, Beijing, September 4, 2007

H. Dirk Koehler, Publisher, The World Bank, Washington, DC

I want to thank Kathleen Louise Peddle, intern in the World Bank’s Office of
the Publisher for her support in researching and putting together these
slides.
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 Number of Native Speakers
(millions)
1,400

1,212
1,200

1,000

800

600

400 341 322

200 125
78

0
Mandarin English Spanish Japanese French

Source: http://encarta.msn.com/media_701500404/Languages_Spoken_by_More_Than_10_Million_People.html 2
 More than Native Speakers…

1378
1,400

1,200 1,300
1,200
1,000

800
178
600
941
400
600 600 China
200 341
English-Speaking World
0
Population Number of Native Number of 2nd- Native and 2nd-
(millions) Speakers (millions) language speakers language speakers
(millions)

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The English-Speaking World’s population includes Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, UK, US, Guyana, Jamaica, Bangladesh, India,
Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Distribution of Native English Speakers
in the Major Publishing Markets
(millions)
South Africa, 4
New Zealand, 4

Australia, 15
Canada, 18

United Kingdom, 58

US, 215

Total 314 m

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 Distribution of the Total Number of Native
and Second-Language English Speakers
(millions)

Other, 220
New Zealand, 4 India, 350

South Africa, 14

Australia, 17

Canada, 25

US, 251
UK, 60

Total 941 m

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David Crystal, 2005
From Speakers to Book Markets
Population, GDP and PPP GNI 2005

40,000
36,342
35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000 16,811 Mandarin

English
15,000

10,000 6,600

5,000 2,234
1,305
460
0
Population GDP (US$ bn) PPP GNI per
(millions) capita (US$)

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From Speakers to Book Markets…
Adult Literacy and Secondary School Enrollment 2005

100%

90% 98.16% 99.04%

80% 91%
70%

60%
73%
50% Mandarin
English
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Adult Literacy Secondary School Enrollment

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 Distribution of Annual Sales
China and the English-Speaking World

Approximate Sales Revenue 2006 US$bn

China, 15.6

English-speaking Total US$ 51bn

countries, 35.91

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Distribution of Annual Sales
The English-Speaking World

Approx Sales US$bn 2006

Canada, 1.9
New Zealand, 0.2
Australia, 1
South Africa, 0.3
UK, 3.71

US, 28.8
Total 35.91 US$bn

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The United States of America
 28.2 US$ bn sales per annum
 15,000 publishing companies
 195,000 new titles published per annum
 5,238 booksellers
 6,000 public libraries
 58 million broadband subscribers
 211 million Internet users

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 SWOT Analysis of the US Market
Strengths
 Positive development forecast, estimated 18%
growth in next 5 years
 Trade sector accounts for 31% of total sales
 New title development strong = 195K in 2004
(52% of the new title output of all the English-
language countries)
 English-language publishers (mostly US but
also English world) produced 40% of the world’s
book content in 2004
 Strong home base enables expansion into
other markets (e.g. Europe, China?, multinational
publishers)
 International leader in technology (e-publishing)
Opportunities
 Enormous size of US/Can. Market
 Minorities not well served
 Dynamic market, open to innovations
Weaknesses
 Inhospitable market for translations into
English from other languages (only 3% of the
books on sale were translations in 2004)
 Recent growth in new title output has been
driven by ‘soft’ categories i.e. adult fiction,
religion and children’s books
 Decline in science and technology books,
burst in computer books ‘bubble’
 Inward looking, risk of isolationism
 Reading culture in decline, new media in
upswing (shorter attention span)
Threats
 Weakened competitiveness due to high costs
and prices
 Foreign-owned publishers
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The United Kingdom

 3.71 US$ bn sales per annum

 2,275 publishing companies
 200,000 new titles published per annum
 3,100 booksellers
 4,600 public libraries
 13 million broadband subscribers
 38 million Internet users
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Australia

 Approx 1 US$ bn sales per annum

 Approx 450 publishing companies

 Approx 10,000 new titles published per annum

 2,300 booksellers
 2000 public libraries
 4 million broadband subscribers
 15 million Internet users

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Canada

 2 US$ bn sales per annum

 493 publishing companies
 11,500 new titles published per annum
 2,000 booksellers
 8 million broadband subscribers
 22 million Internet users

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South Africa

 0.3 US$ bn sales per annum

 158 publishing companies
 3,000 new titles published per annum
 580 booksellers
 1,200 public libraries
 0.3 million broadband subscribers
 5.1 million Internet users

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New Zealand

 0.2 US$ bn sales per annum

 100 publishing companies
 2,266 new titles published per annum
 370 booksellers
 0.6 million broadband subscribers
 3.2 million Internet users

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