Mithila Biniwale Research Scholar Department of Humanities Social Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Powai, Mumbai 400 076.
mitsiitb@iitb.ac.in
International Conference on Changing Structure of International Trade & Investment New Delhi
Source: www.mapsofindia.com
Source: www.maps-of-china.com
Indicators (2008) Population, total Population growth (annual %) Surface area (sq. km) GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) GDP growth (annual %) HDI Ranking Share in World GDP (1995-2003)
Source: www.worldbank.org, Jorgenson &Vu (2005)
Introduction
During 1994-98 the primary sector of India was brought
under the purview of reforms that aimed at gradually opening agricultural trade flows as a result of signing the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture.
In 2001 Chinas entry in WTO started an attempt of
broad-based liberalisation.
The study compares the agricultural trade performances
Objectives
To outline and review main changes in agricultural policies of India
and China. To analyse agricultural trade performances of India and China in the context of WTO
China
1952 to 1977
1978 to 2005
Hypothesis
The sequencing of reform is influential factor
contributing to the differences in agricultural growth and agricultural trade in India and China.
Data Sources
India
Economic Survey of India (Ministry of Finance, Government of India) Agricultural Statistics at Glance (Ministry of Agriculture Government of India)
China
China Statistical Yearbook (National Bureau of Statistics of China) China Agricultural Development Report (Ministry of Agriculture, China)
FAOSTAT-Agriculture online statistical service (Food and Agriculture Organisation of United Nations) World Economic Outlook (International Monetary Fund) Commodity Yearbook (UNCTAD)
Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy (Reserve Bank of India) National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) various rounds.
direction and was marked by Reforms in Domestic confusion. agricultural marketing (1980s) (1998 onwards) (Rao,1966 & Vadiyanathan, 2000)
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Phases of Reforms
Major institutional and pricing
reforms (1978-1984).
Substantial domestic
Communization (1957-1960).
Economic adjustments and
of broad-based liberalization(1994-2001).
Entry of China in WTO
(2001 onwards)
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India
For 'All Crops' there is slowing of growth in area, production & yield in post-reform. High level of diversification. Prices of other commodities are growing faster than prices of farm products. Share in world production & trade shows steady decline. Volatility of prices has increased for major agricultural crops.
China
Between 1978 and 1984, grain, rice & cotton production grown considerably.
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China
Year Agric Seco ultur ndar e y Tertiary Total
Pre-reform
6.3 -8.1
10.4 2.7 2.7 4.7 6.6 4.1 3.5 4.8 4.5
15.0 27.0
13.1 6.6 6.4 8.5 8.2 11.3 10.0 11.7 11.9
10.0 13.8
4.9 4.8 3.3 4.4 12.1 9.2 9.6 10.1 10.7
9.9 10.7
9.5 4.8 4.5 5.9 8.8 8.9 8.8 10.2 9.9
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1980-81 to 1989-90
1950-51 to 1989-90 Post-reform 1990-91 to 1993-94 1994-95 to 1997-98 1998-99 to 2008-09 1990-91 to 2007-08
2.9
2.3 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.8
5.8
5.1 3.2 7.3 7.7 6.6
6.7
4.8 5.9 8.7 8.9 8.2
Source: Calculations are based on data from China Statistical Yearbook, 2002,2004 & 2008.
Condt.
India
Green Revolution- 3.5 %
1978 to 1984
7.7 1985 to 1993 9.2 1994 to 2000 2001 to 2007
2.7
7.7 0.1 23.2
8.4
7.6 -2.3 13.2
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Source: Calculations are based on data from www.fao.org Note: Growth rates are calculated fitting linear trend line to logarithmic values.
9.95 30.3
33.24
65.66
77.9
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India Pre-reform
China Pre-reform
1961 to 1970 21.1 1961 to1970 17.2 1971 to 1980 23.2 1971 to 1977 16.2 1981 to 1990 19.0 Post-reform Post-reform 1978 to 1984 22.20 1991 to 1999 13.3 1985 to 1993 42.16 2000 to 2007 13.7 1994 to 2000 53.3 2001 to 2007 57.7
Source: Calculations based on data from www.fao.org 15
6.0
5.0 4.0 (in %) 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1973 1963 1965
1967
1975
1961
1969
1979
1971
1977
2003
India Imports
India Exports
China Imports
China Exports
2005
1993
1995
1997
1999
1989
1987
2001
1983
1985
1991
1981
Summing Up
Chinas sequencing of reforms help it to improve trade
performance.
Indias liberalisation policy also gave boost to agri-trade. Both the countries show decline in share of agri-exports in
Thank You
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