+ oil referred to in the term peak oil is petroleum

+ crude oil lifeblood of modern civilization

+ raw form of the gasoline we put in our cars and
+ the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
+ primary feedstock for many of the chemicals
and products essential to modern life
+ most important energy source found in the
planet
+ naturally occurring, flammable liquid found in
rock formations miles beneath the Earth’s crust
consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons
of various molecular weights and other organic
compounds
Importance
+ 35% of the world’s primary energy consumption
is supplied by oil
+ Transportation general for any country, relies to
well over 90% on oil
+ economy and the lifestyle of industrialized
societies rely heavily on the sufficient supply of oil
Problem
+ increase in world population  demand for oil
increases
+ oil is finite, therefore….
+ oil has reached its maximum production rate,
and a decline in production is immediately going
to succeed
+ M. King Hubbert (1965)
“the output of individual oil reservoirs rises
after discovery, reaches a peak and declines
thereafter”
++ based on RESERVOIR RESERVES
+ No one can accurately predict when it will occur/
has occurred ( between 2005 to 2012 according
to independent analysts)
+ there will still be large reserves remaining when
oil production peaks
+ HOWEVER this means that world oil production
has no capability to increase further than this
point, thus predicting a decrease in production
+ improved technology for improved reservoir
detection and extraction will come too late
+ Since oil affects almost ALL products and goods, a
ripple effect follows
PRICE INCREASE 
BUSINESS CLOSURE 
UNEMPLOYMENT 
TAX DELINQUENCIES 
GOV’T INABILTY TO PROVIDE BASIC SERVICES 
DEGRADATION OF LIVING STANDARDS 
MORE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHAOS
Mitigation
+ attempt to delay the date and minimize the social and
economic impact of peak oil by reducing the world's
consumption and reliance on petroleum
+ involves fuel conservation and use of alternative and
renewable energy sources
+ The development of non-conventional oil resources
( or oil that is not readily in liquid form) can extend the
use of petroleum, but does not reduce consumption
Fuel conservation = Fuel efficiency
1. Retrofits – the improvisation in efficiency of
existing equipment,
2. Displacement technologies – replacement of
existing equipment with more efficient ones
+ hybrid systems
+ alternative fuels
Bio- fuels ( gasoline + ethanol)
LPG (liquified gas)
used cooking oil and fuel-cell
Hindrances – market penetration regarding such
technologies is not easy

+ hybrid systems –require time for major refitting of

refineries
+ alternative fuels specifically Ethanol may defy
agriculture
-energy output < amount of ethanol sources
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
+ solar powers (panels)
+ wind power
+ hydroelectric power
+ geothermal power
+ nuclear power (?)
(though full utilization may take decades more)
Non-conventional oil sources
+ heavy oil (denser and more viscous crude oil)
+ oil/tar sands – from shallower reservoirs/ thicker than heav
oil (does not flow)
+ oil shales containing kerogen (needs to be heated to turn
into oil)
HOWEVER
+ net energy to extract oil from these sources is less

than that of conventional sources…

We also must put in mind that while the
shape of the oil production curve can be
affected by mitigation efforts, mitigation
efforts, since they are energy sources as
well, are also affected by the shape of
Hubbert curve
Worst-case scenario due to early PEAK OIL
+ Giant oil field reserves are much less than stated.
+ Terrorism stays at current levels or increases and
concentrates on damaging oil production, transportation,
refining and distribution, also delaying the realization of
peaking and initiation of mitigation.
+ Political instability in major oil producing countries
results in unexpected, sustained world-scale oil shortages
due to hindered production.
+ Consumers demand even larger, less fuel-efficient
vehicles and machinery.
+ Expansion of energy production is hindered by
increasing environmental challenges, creating other
shortages aside from liquid fuel.
Possible scenarios delaying PEAK OIL
+ previous assumptions were wrong and the peak is still
decades away.
+ Reserves of giant oil fields are higher than publicly
stated
+ new super-giant oil fields are found and brought into
production; well before oil peaking might otherwise have
occurred
+ High world oil prices over a sustained period (10 years
or above) induce a higher level of structural conservation
and energy efficiency, with additional effort from the
highest oil consuming countries
+ world economic and population growth slows and future
demand is much less than anticipated
+ oil prices stay at a high enough level on a sustained
basis so that industry begins construction of alternative
fuel plants well before oil peaking.
+ some kind of scientific breakthrough comes into
commercial use, mitigating oil demand well before
production peaks.
Viable scenarios on mitigation and oil
peaking
+ Waiting until world oil production peaks before
taking crash program action leaves the world with a
significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two
decades
+ Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before
world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a
liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time
that oil would have peaked
+ Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before
peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a
world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period
Viable scenarios on mitigation and oil
peaking
+ Waiting until world oil production peaks before
taking crash program action leaves the world with a
significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two
decades
+ Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before
world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a
liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time
that oil would have peaked
+ Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before
peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a
world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period