Have you ever…

 Shot a rifle?
 Played darts?
 Played basketball?

What is the point of these sports?

What makes them hard?
Have you ever…
 Shot a rifle?
Emmet
 Played darts?
 Played basketball?

Jake

Who is the better shot?

Discussion
 What do you measure in your process?
 Why do those measures matter?
 Are those measures consistently the
same?
 Why not?
Variability 8
7
10
8
 Deviation = distance between 9

observations and the mean (or Emmett

average)
Observations Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
Jake
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4
averages 8.4 0.0
Variability
 Deviation = distance between
observations and the mean (or Emmett

average)
Observations Deviations
7
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 6
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 7
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 7
6 Jake
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6
averages 6.6 0.0
Variability 8
7
10
8
 Variance = average distance 9

between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 2.56
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6 0.36
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
Jake
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4 1.96
averages 8.4 0.0 1.0 Variance
 Variability
 Variance = average distance
between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
7
7 6
7 7
7 7
6 Jake
6
6
averages
 Variability
 Variance = average distance
between observations and the Emmett

mean squared
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
7
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 6
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 7
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 7
6 Jake
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 0.36
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 0.36
averages 6.6 0.0 0.24 Variance
Variability
 Standard deviation = square root
of variance Emmett

Variance Standard
Deviation
Emmett 1.0 1.0
Jake 0.24 0.4898979 Jake

But what good is a standard deviation

Variability

The world tends to

be bell-shaped

Even very rare Fewer Most Fewer Even very rare

outcomes are in the outcomes in the outcomes are
possible “tails” occur in the “tails” possible
(probability > 0) (lower) middle (upper) (probability > 0)
Variability
Here is why: Even outcomes that are equally
likely (like dice), when you add
them up, become bell shaped
Add up the dots on the dice

0.2

0.15
Probability

1 die
0.1 2 dice

0.05 3 dice

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Sum of dots
 “Normal” bell shaped curve

Add up about 30 of most things

and you start to be “normal”

Normal distributions are divide up

into 3 standard deviations on
each side of the mean

Once your that, you

know a lot about
what is going on

And that is what a standard deviation

is good for
 Usual or unusual?
1. One observation falls
outside 3 standard
deviations?
2. One observation falls in
zone A?
3. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone A?
4. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
5. 4 out of 5 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
6. 8 consecutive points above
X XX
XX1X XX2
X 34 56 78
the mean, rising, or falling?
Causes of Variability
 Common Causes:
 Random variation (usual)
 No pattern
 Inherent in process
 adjusting the process increases its variation
 Special Causes
 Non-random variation (unusual)
 May exhibit a pattern
 Assignable, explainable, controllable
 adjusting the process decreases its variation

SPC uses samples to identify that special causes have occurred

Causes
 Should show a random pattern. Not fixed
pattern.
 For if 18 of the last 20 points plotted above
the center line but below the upper control
limit and only two of these points plotted
below the center line but above the lower
control limit, we would be very suspicious
that something was wrong.
Limits
 Process and Control limits:
 Statistical
 Process limits are used for individual items
 Control limits are used with averages
 Limits = μ ± 3σ
 Define usual (common causes) & unusual (special
causes)
 Specification limits:
 Engineered
 Limits= target ± tolerance
 Define acceptable & unacceptable
Example of Control Chart
 In manufacturing automobile engine piston rings,
the inside diameter of the rings is a critical
quality characteristic.
 The process mean inside ring diameter is 74
millimeters, and it is known that the standard
deviation of ring diameter is 0.01 millimeters.
 Every hour a random sample of five rings is
taken, the average ring diameter of the sample
(say ) is computed, and is plotted on the chart.
 Consider how the control limits were
determined. The process average is 74
millimeters,
 and the process standard deviation is 0.01
millimeters. Now if samples of size n 5
are
 taken, the standard deviation of the
sample average is
Process vs. control limits
Distribution of averages

Control limits
Specification limits

Variance of averages < variance of individual items

Distribution of individuals

Process limits
Usual v. Unusual,
Acceptable v. Defective

A B C D E

μ Target
 More about limits
Good quality:
defects are
rare (Cpk>1)
μ
target

Poor quality:
defects are
common (Cpk<1)
μ
target

Cpk measures “Process Capability”

If process limits and control limits are at the same location, Cpk = 1. Cpk ≥ 2 is exceptional.
Process capability
Good quality: defects are rare (Cpk>1)
Poor quality: defects are common (Cpk<1)
=
USL – x
= 24 – 20 =.667
3σ 3(2)
Cpk = min
=
x - LSL
= 20 – 15 =.833
3σ 3(2)

14 20 26
15 24
= =
3σ = (UPL – x, or x – LPL)
Going out of control
 When an observation is unusual, what can
we conclude?

The mean
has changed

μ1 μ2
Going out of control
 When an observation is unusual, what can
we conclude?

The standard deviation

σ1 has changed

σ2

X
Setting up control charts:
Calculating the limits
 Sample n items (often 4 or 5)
 Find the mean of the sample x (x-bar)
 Find the range of the sample R
 Plot x on the x chart
 Plot the R on an R chart
 Repeat steps 1-5 thirty times
 Average the x ’s to create x (x-bar-bar)
 Average the R’s to create R (R-bar)
Setting up control charts:
Calculating the limits
1. Find A2 on table (A2 times R estimates 3σ)
2. Use formula to find limits for x-bar chart:
X ± A2 R

5. Use formulas to find limits for R chart:

LCL = D3 R UCL = D4 R
 Let’s try a small problem

smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6

observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
x-bar
R

X-bar chart R chart

UCL

Centerline

LCL
 Let’s try a small problem

smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6 Avg.

observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
X-bar 7.3333 9.6667 9.3333 7.3333 7 7.6667 8.0556
R 1 3 6 1 5 5 3.5

X-bar chart R chart

UCL 11.6361 9.0125
Centerline 8.0556 3.5
LCL 4.4751 0
X-bar chart

14.0000
12.0000 11.6361
10.0000
8.0000 8.0556
6.0000
4.4751
4.0000
2.0000
0.0000
1 2 3 4 5 6
R chart

10
9.0125
8
6

4
3.5
2

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Interpreting charts
 Observations outside control limits
indicate the process is probably “out-of-
control”
 Significant patterns in the observations
indicate the process is probably “out-of-
control”
 Random causes will on rare occasions
indicate the process is probably “out-of-
control” when it actually is not
Interpreting charts
 In the excel spreadsheet, look for these
shifts:

A B

C D

Show real time examples of charts here

Lots of other charts exist

P chart C charts U charts Cusum & EWMA

For yes-no For counting Average count Advanced charts
questions like number defects per unit (similar
“is it defective?” where most items to C chart)
(binomial data) have ≥1 defects
(eg. custom built
houses)

“V” shaped or
p (1 − p ) u
p±3 c ±3 c u ±3 Curved control
n n limits (calculate
them by hiring a
statistician)
Selecting rational samples
 Chosen so that variation within the sample is
considered to be from common causes
 Special causes should only occur between
samples
 Special causes to avoid in sampling
 passage of time
 workers
 shifts
 machines
 Locations
Chart advice
 Larger samples are more accurate
 Sample costs money, but so does being out-of-control
 Don’t convert measurement data to “yes/no” binomial
data (X’s to P’s)
 Not all out-of control points are bad
 Don’t combine data (or mix product)
 Have out-of-control procedures (what do I do now?)
 Actual production volume matters (Average Run Length)