Superstition as Science

Konrad Talmont-Kaminski UMCS & KLI

First-footing
It is lucky when a tall man walks into a house first in the New Year Is this a scientific hypothesis? Why not? Is it something about the hypothesis? Is it something about our attitudes? Is it something about how it was reached?

Outline
Elements of superstitions Superstition, magic & religion 3 different views of superstition Superstition as science What is the difference? Empirical limits Conclusions

Elements of superstitions Superstitious beliefs Superstitious practices The link between them

Elements of a superstition
Superstitious belief
Action
Crossing fingers Can be just an event Friday 13th

Effect
Potentially desirable or undesirable event

Connection
Causation/conjuration or prediction/divination

Explanation
Luck No natural explanation Supernatural explanation

Elements of a superstition
Superstitious practice
Taking or avoiding the action
Avoiding black cats

Success uncertain Function

Manifest
To avoid or bring about the effect

Latent
Can be very different

First-footing again
Predicting or causing?

Elements of a superstition
The link between beliefs and practices
Generally problematic Focussing on practices
Skinners behaviourism Beliefs secondary

Focussing on beliefs
Superstition satisfying internal needs Practices secondary

Superstition, magic & religion

Magic & religion Magic & superstition Religion & superstition

Superstition, magic & religion

Magic & religion
E. Durkheim 1912
Sacred vs. profane Religion
Social function

Magic
Individual function

D. S. Wilson 2002
Evolutionary explanation of religion Social function as group-selection

Superstition, magic & religion

Magic & superstition
Magic
Traditional societies

Superstition
Modern society

Relation?
Different phenomena Same phenomenon / different contexts
Education and superstition (Jahoda 1969) Jumper example

Superstition, magic & religion

Religion & superstition
Deisidaimonia
Misplaced fear of daimons Theophrastus, circa 300 BC

Superstition is false religion

Worship of demons Aquinas, circa 1250 AD

Atheist generalisation
All religion is false Therefore, superstition is all religion

Can differentiate religion & superstition Some religious practices superstitious

Intercessory prayer

3 views of superstition
Superstition as fantasy Superstition as rhetoric Superstition as science

3 views of superstition
Superstition as fantasy
Attempted retreat from threatening/ uncontrollable reality Anxiety-reduction (Malinowski 1925) Retaining feeling of control (Case et all 2004) The man under the sway of impotent fury or dominated by thwarted hate spontaneously clenches his fists and carries out imaginary thrusts at his enemy, muttering imprecations, casting words of hatred and anger against him. Malinowski Magic, Science, and

3 views of superstition
Superstition as rhetoric
Attempted communication Use of language to induce motion in things (Burke 1969) Costly signalling (Tambiah 1990) Accepting authority (Palmer 1989) By communicating acceptance of a supernatural claim one is communicating a willingness to accept the speakers influence unskeptically. Palmer The ritual taboos of fishermen

3 views of superstition
Superstition as science
Attempt to understand/control the world Primitive science (Frazer 1890) Adventitious reinforcement (Skinner 1947) Biased cognitive heuristics (Rozin & Nemeroff 1980) Magic is a spurious system of natural law as well as a fallacious guide of conduct; it is a false science as well as an abortive art. - Frazer, Golden Bough

Superstition as science?
Question of focus Primitive science Adventitious reinforcement Biased cognitive heuristics

Superstition as science?
Question of focus
Superstitious beliefs vs. scientific beliefs Superstitious methods vs. scientific methods

Both options incomplete

Would superstitious beliefs be scientific if arrived at scientifically? Could they be arrived at scientifically? Is there such a thing as magical thinking? Or is it that thinking sometimes leads to magical beliefs?

Superstition as science?
Primitive science
Tylor 1871, Frazer 1890, Levy-Bruhl 1910 Superstition identified with primitive societies/minds Science identified with modern societies/minds Progress seen as directed evolution Enlightenment / Intellectualist position Rationality expels superstition

Superstition as science?
Adventitious reinforcement
B.F. Skinner 1947, S. Vyse 1997 Superstition in a pigeon
Skinner box Operant conditioning Independent reinforcement schedule Superstitious behaviour Operant conditioning is not just for rats and pigeons - Vyse

Superstition as science?
Adventitious reinforcement
Matrix task
4 x 4 matrix Move dot from top left to bottom right Task: Find out when points are gained Points awarded randomly Numerous theories put forward

Similar situations
Malfunctioning light switch

Conditioning as basis for understanding science?

Superstition as science?
Biased cognitive heuristics
Domain-specific Generally effective Systematically biased Heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky 1974) Bounded rationality (H. Simon 1972) Scientific methods as heuristics (W. Wimsatt 2007) Contagion heuristic
Rozin & Nemeroff 1980

What is the difference?

Truth & empirical adequacy Natural vs. supernatural Sacred vs. profane

What is the difference?

Truth & empirical adequacy
Superstitions as false causal beliefs
Often used definition Many false causal beliefs, some scientific

Superstitions not just false but (known to be) empirically inadequate

Scientific beliefs rejected due to empirical inadequacy Can not equate Newtons physics with his astrology

Is onto something But superstitious beliefs look different

What is the difference?

Natural vs. supernatural
Superstitions as supernatural claims Problems
Vague concept Circularity? Distinction much later than category Correlation between superstitious and pseudoscientific beliefs Succubi become aliens Post hoc explanations

Is onto something

What is the difference?

Sacred vs. profane
Durkheim Explaining a cognitive category in terms of a social phenomenon? Is onto something But, again, superstitions look different

Empirical limits
van Fraassen Observability & superstitions Observability & functions Agnosticism about explanations

Empirical limits
B. van Fraassen
The Scientific Image 1980 Limits of observability
Actual empirical limitations Ability to discern small objects Limits change over time Agnosticism about unobservable claims Challenging scientific attitudes

Observable/detectable distinction
Distinction generally rejected Is anything unobservable? Significance of social attitudes

Empirical limits
Observability & superstitions How observable are superstitious claims?
Connections between actions and events
Observable as correlations

Explanations for the connections

The claims hard to observe Attitudes object to observation Render superstitious explanations effectively unobservable Superempirical rather than supernatural

Empirical limits
Observability and functions Manifest and latent function
Manifest function requires observability Religious connections unobservable
Latent (social) function more important

In superstitions only explanations unobservable Scientists aim to make explanations observable A vital difference

Empirical limits
Agnosticism about explanations Scientific explanations?
Scientists take realist view of explanations Pursue evidence for their truth Agnosticism not justified

Superstitious explanations
Explanations in practically untestable terms Testing of explanations discouraged Agnosticism is not enough

Agnosticism about explanations is

Conclusions
Similarities
Methods: Use of heuristics Beliefs: Often hard to test explanations put forward

Differences
Methods: Development of new heuristics Beliefs: A realist attitude to explanations leading to pursuit of testing

Thank you
konrad@talmont.com http://deisidaimon.wordpress.com