Bali, Indonesia, 3 - 14 December 2007

Agenda of the meeting

The two-week conference, the thirteenth Conference of the 192 Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the third meeting of the 176 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, is expected to result in negotiations on a climate change deal for the period post-2012, the year the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol expires.

Why is the Bali Conference of such importance?

the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) has made clear beyond doubt that climate change is a reality and can seriously harm the future development of our economies, societies and eco-systems worldwide. climate change and its impacts can only be successfully coordinated at the international level. put in place in time to ensure that necessary action is undertaken immediately after 2012 when the current phase of the Kyoto Protocol ends. agree to the launch of this process.

Since climate change is a global issue, tackling

A new international climate change deal must be

At the Bali Conference, Parties are expected to

Expected key decisions

Talks and negotiations on the future Ongoing negotiations under the

Kyoto Protocol Practical adaptation actions to climate change Adaptation fund Technology Reducing emissions from deforestation Carbon market

 The Fourth Assessment Report by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be presented.

The IPCC assesses world-wide climate change

science in three working groups and in the context of three broad categories: 1) the physical science, 2) climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. 3) mitigation of climate change.

The physical science

Climate change is already happening is

unequivocal and this change can now be firmly attributed to human activity. around 3C this century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current pace and are allowed to double from their preindustrial level. above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

The world faces an average temperature rise of

Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or

Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

Many natural systems, on all continents and in

some oceans, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes, with increased risk of outburst floods. increasing ground instability in mountain and other permafrost regions, and ice and rock avalanches in mountain regions. changes in some Arctic and Antarctic flora and fauna, including sea-ice biomes and predators high in the food chain. earlier timing of spring events, such as leafunfolding, bird migration and egg-laying. pole-ward and upward shifts in ranges in plant

Regions that will be especially affected

The Arctic, because of high rates of projected warming on natural systems.

Africa: Increased water shortages; (up to 250 million people in Africa at increased risk of water stress in 2020.) Reductions in the area suitable for agriculture Sea-level rise and consequent threat to cities. Small Island Developing States: o Sea-level rise is likely to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure that supports the socio-economic well-being of island communities.

Mitigation of Climate Change

GHG emission trends Between 1970 and 2004, emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6, the greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol, have increased by 70% (24% since 1990). CO2, being by far the largest source, has grown by about 80% (28% since 1990). This has occurred because increases in income per capita and population have outweighed decreases in energy intensity of production and consumption.

 Without additional policies global GHG

emissions are projected to increase with 2590% by 2030 relative to 2000. Fossil fuel dominance is expected to continue to 2030 and beyond, hence CO2 emissions from energy use are projected to grow with 40-110% over that period. Two thirds to three quarters of this increase is projected to come from developing countries, though their average per capita CO2 emissions will remain substantially lower than those in developed country regions. Since 2000 carbon intensity of energy has been on the rise due to increased use of coal.

The greenhouse effect

The earth's climate is driven by a continuous flow of

energy from the sun. This energy arrives mainly in the form of visible light. About 30% is immediately scattered back into space, but most of the remaining 70% that is absorbed passes down through the atmosphere to warm the earth's surface. the form of infrared radiation. Being much cooler than the sun, the earth does not emit energy as visible light. Instead, it emits infrared, or thermal radiation. This is the heat thrown off by an electric fire or grill before the bars begin to glow red. radiation from escaping directly from the surface to space. Infrared radiation cannot pass straight through the air like visible light. Instead, most departing energy is carried away from the surface by air currents and clouds, eventually escaping to space from altitudes

The earth must send this energy back out into space in

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere block infrared

 The layer of greenhouse gases is measured in

parts per million (ppm), which is the ratio of the number of greenhouse gas molecules to the total number of molecules of dry air. For example: 300ppm CO2 means 300 molecules of CO2 per million molecules of dry air.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

The concept of Clean Development Mechanism has evolved in Seventh Conference of the Parties (COP 7) to the UNFCCC, held in Marrakesh, Morocco, in 2001. The CDM offers a mechanism for developed countries to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction requirements by gaining offsets from projects they fund in developing countries. To receive these offsets known as Carbon Emission Reduction Units (CERs) the project should demonstrate real, measurable, and long-term benefits and the reductions should be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the project. reforestation project activities under the rules of the Clean Development Mechanism.

Developing countries can implement afforestation and

Adaptation
The Earths surface temperature is rising,

thereby changing the Earths climate.

Rising temperatures will have serious effects on

rainfall, the strength and distribution of tropical storms, sea levels and glacier melt, thereby causing greater risks to life and livelihood and increasing damage-related costs.

The temperature today is on an average 0.7c

and the global objective is to limit it at 2c.

Adaptation is about finding and implementing

ways of adjusting to climate change.

Different methods of adaptation

changes in behavior (e.g. in water use or

farming practices). structural changes (e.g. in the design specification of bridges and roads),. policy based responses (e.g. integrating risk management and adaptation into development policy). technological responses (e.g. increased sea defenses, improved forecasting). managerial responses (e.g. improved forest management and biodiversity conservation.)

Forests and Climate Change

Global forest covered around 30 per cent of the

Earths surface in 2005 (nearly 4 billion hectares).

Forests provide valuable ecosystem services

and goods to humankind and a habitat for a wide range of flora and fauna.
Forests hold a significant standing stock of

global carbon (estimated at 638 Gt for 2005) which is more than the amount of carbon in the entire atmosphere.

Deforestation
mainly conversion of forests for agriculture

activities, was estimated at an alarming rate of 13 million hectares per year (in the period 1990-2005).
Deforestation results in immediate release of

the carbon stored in trees as CO2 emissions.

It is estimated that deforestation contributed

globally to approximately 20 per cent of annual greenhouse gas emissions in the 1990s.

Why technology is so important

For mitigation Climate-friendly technologies need to enable a transition to a carbonconstrained economy and decouple economic growth from emissions growth. Climate-friendly technologies and sustainable development approaches need to enable developing countries to avoid the development paths taken by industrial countries in the past, before the risks were known.

For adaptation Most methods of adaptation involve some form of technology: Soft forms, including: insurance schemes, crop rotation patterns or traditional knowledge Hard forms, including: irrigation systems, drought-resistant seeds, or sea-defences A combination of soft and hard forms such as early-warning systems.

The role of business

The role of business as a source of solutions on The transition to a low-carbon economy can

global climate change is universally recognized. become a platform for new economic growth, new jobs, new manufacturing and service industries, new markets and new roles for sectors such as agriculture and forestry. development of new, climate-friendly technologies that will help economies advance and growwithout continuing to pose a threat to the global climate.

Business sees enormous opportunities in the

The role of governments

For clean technologies to be widely deployed,

governments need to concretize and support a market-friendly, clear and predictable playing field for private investors. options, including the encouragement of clean fossil fuels such as natural gas as well as mature renewable energy technologies such as large hydropower, biomass combustion and geothermal energy. emissions involve electricity savings in buildings and fuel savings in vehicles.

Governments can promote a range of energy

Some of the cheapest options for reducing