GRID-SCALE PRECIPITATION

Grid-Scale Precipitation Definition

Also known as large-scale and/or stratiform precipitation processes in NWP Generally refers to precipitation produced in a model as the result of large-scale ascent of stably stratified, saturated air Or: Where upward motion ultimately leads to clouds and precipitation (excluding convection)

Grid-Scale Precipitation Definition Cont.

Grid-scale precipitation occurs in a model when a grid box becomes supersaturated and excess moisture is eliminated through condensation and heating

Models of Various Scales

y Large-scale models must parameterize or use schemes to predict where cloud and precipitation will develop y Mesoscale models are generally able to explicitly predict precipitation resulting from large-scale ascent

The Nested Grid Model (NGM)

Uses a large-scale saturation adjustment scheme to produce gridscale precipitation; process includes
Precipitation develops when RH at a grid point exceeds ~95% Supersaturated grid points reduced to 100% and values between 95% and 100% gradually nudged toward 95%

The NGM Continued

Condensation in the grid box falls and evaporates into the next lower layer where RH is > 95% Process repeats downward until all the condensate that penetrates the bottom model layer is allowed to fall to the surface as precipitation

The Aviation Medium-Range Forecast Model (AVN/MRF)

y Large-scale saturation adjustment scheme used in AVN/MRF is similar to NGM y Unique features of AVN/MRF include
Large-scale precipitation algorithm checks supersaturation in predicted specific humidity fields

The AVN/MRF Continued

Latent heat released to adjust the specific humidity and temperature to saturation Condensate falls and is allowed to evaporate in layers where RH is < 80% (90% for 1st layer AGL)

Discussion Questions
y In cloudy areas, what limitations might the AVN/MRF have? y The NGM model does not include clouds either. How might this affect MOS guidance in cloudy areas?

Clouds in the Eta Model

y Since 1995, Eta uses a cloud water scheme that explicitly represents cloud liquid water and cloud ice in the model's prognostic equations y Clouds produced from large-scale condensation processes

Clouds in the Eta Model Continued

y Two three-dimensional cloud fields are calculated Cloud fraction (computed from RH) Cloud water/ice content (calculated by the cloud water/ice mixing ratio)

Hydrometeors in the Eta Model

Clouds in the Eta model consist of liquid droplets or ice particles (depending on temperature of cloud and cloud top)

Condensation in the Eta Model

y Grid-point condensation occurs in model at two different RH thresholds
Over land, when RH exceeds 75% Over water, when RH exceeds 80%

Discussion Questions
y Name two reasons for having different condensation thresholds over water and land. y What may happen to precipitation forecasts at land/water interfaces as a result of the two different RH condensation thresholds?

Precipitation in the Eta Model

y Precipitation calculated from the cloud water/ice mixing ratio y Once condensate forms, falls to the ground or evaporates into lower layers, all in one time step (thus no rainwater or snow remains in the column of air)

Precipitation in the Eta Model Continued

Parameterization of precipitation includes six major microphysical processes
1 Autoconversion of cloud water to rain 2 Collection of cloud droplets by the falling rain drops 3 Autoconversion of ice particles to snow 4 Collection of ice particles by the falling snow 5 Melting of snow below the freezing line 6 Evaporation of precipitation below cloud bases

Precipitation in the Eta Model Continued

Condensate evaporated within a model layer until it moistens to the critical value of 75% over land, or 80% over water before falling to the next layer

Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS 3)

y Uses saturation adjustment scheme similar to NGM and AVN/MRF y Large-scale precipitation processes remove all remaining supersaturation (after all other physics adjustments done) y Ice and water processes (including latent heat) considered separately and in combination for water vapor and/or ice, depending on the temperature

NOGAPS 3 Continued
y Changes excess water vapor in a grid box to liquid and releases latent heat y Precipitation falls to the next layer where evaporation can raise the RH to 100% y Repeat process downward to the bottom model layer where no evaporation is allowed y Liquid reaching the bottom is the large-scale precipitation forecast (if the temperature is below freezing, it is assumed to be snow)

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Global Model
y Uses a fully prognostic and model consistent cloud scheme that considers clouds and precipitation formation as the result of Large-scale ascent Diabatic cooling Boundary layer turbulence Horizontal transport of cloud water from convective updrafts

The ECMWF Continued

y Clouds from large-scale ascent form when grid-averaged RH values exceed 80% at 650 hPa
Value increases toward 100% as the boundary layer and stratosphere approached RH thresholds only apply to cloud formation, not cloud occurrence

The ECMWF Continued

y One important feature of scheme - its explicit representation of anvil cirrus clouds. Precipitation/evaporation from anvil cirrus improved the ECMWF global models
Tropical precipitation forecasts Moisture budget in the middle and lower troposphere

The ECMWF Continued

y Precipitation represented by bulk water parameterization where liquid is subdivided into cloud water and rainwater. Kesslers scheme used to handle rain evaporation, and snow melt parameterized as well

The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC-2)

y Uses bulk mixed-phase MM5 microphysics to explicitly predict clouds, icing, and precipitation y Initial cloud fields placed in each run from the 40-km MAPS output

Implications for Use & Discussion

Care must be taken when comparing condensation/precipitation forecasts from models using the two different approaches. In general, models that use a large-scale saturation adjustment scheme tend to have higher RHs than models that use an explicit cloud prediction scheme. Why?

Reasons for Error in Precipitation Processes

y Errors in formulations of equations that produce precipitation y Lack of adequate observations of cloud water temperature, low-level moisture, vertical motion, etc. y Many models begin with NO clouds/precipitation at analysis time Others?