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The Mystery of Unaccounted for Gas


Presented by Dr. Faizullah Abbasi, MD, SSGC

THE MYSTERY OF UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS


Pakistan Energy Conference
April 12, 2011-Islamabad

Would you hire this man as your detective if it is the

SSGC INFRASTRUCTURE
Quetta Zarghun

SSGC INFRASTRUCTURE
Pirkoh
Pesh Bogi
SNGPL transmission line

Sibi

Transmission Network (Km) Distribution Network (Km)

3,320 36,785

Loti

Sui

Balochistan

Jacobabad Shikarpur Mazarani Larkana Zamzama Dadu Sukkur Hasan Sawan Miano

Customers
Industrial

Kadanwari

3,863
24,156 2,219,138

Bhit Nawabshah

Sindh

Commercial

Sari Karachi FJFC

Hyderabad

Domestic

Badin

Sui Southern Gas Company Limited

GAS FLOW CHART


POD SMS POD SMS POD SMS POD
Transmission pipelines Distribution Supply Mains Distribution Network 4

CUSTOMERS TBS Industrial CMSs

TBS

Commercial Meters

TBS

Domestic Meters

Inspector Clouseau will not solve the mystery of UFG till he gets into the heart of the matter.
Will the Case get complex and intricate? Lets find out.

WHAT IS UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS OR UFG?


TOTAL GAS PURCHASE

TOTAL GAS SALE

UFG
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HOW IS UFG CALCULATED?


INDUSTRIAL SALE (3,863 Customers)

+ UFG
GAS PURCHASED FROM 16 GAS FIELDS COMMERCIAL SALE (24,156 Customers)

+
DOMESTIC SALE (2,219,138 Customers)

UFG THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 1


BULK/POWER 50 MMCF

GAS PURCHASE 100 MMCF

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM 45 MMCF

UFG 5 MMCF i.e. 5%

UFG THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 2


BULK/POWER 0 MMCF

GAS PURCHASE 50 MMCF

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM 45 MMCF

UFG 5 MMCF i.e. 10%

10

SSGC - YEAR WISE % BULK SALE TREND


%AGE

11

UFG IN GAS SALES MIX - POWER


(7.95%)

(18.30%)

(26.15%)

(2.31%) (13.19%) (16.82%) (5.5%)

(9.6 %)

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UFG IN GAS SALES MIX BULK POWER


15BCF Gas May Produce
UFG 20,000 (4.5%)

1,250,000 MW Power

G.INDUSTRIES 80,351

(18.30%)
BULK POWER 129,812 COMMERCIAL 10,178

(29.57%)

(2.31%)

CAPTIVE POWER 57,915

(13.19%)

BULK OTHER 42,405

(9.6 %)

CNG 24,473

DOMESTIC 73,844

(16.82%)

(5.5%)

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FIRST CLUE: FINANCIAL IMPACT OF UFG


A Quick Math Calculation
SSGC: Annual

UFG = 35,010 MMCF

(7.95%)
SSGC: Per day UFG = 96 MMCFD

Avg. Cost/MMCF

= Rs 221,690

Financial Cost of Lost Gas (UFG)

35,010 (MMCF) x Rs 221,690 (Gas price) = Rs 7,761 million


(All figures for FY-2009-10)
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CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH UFG PLOT THICKENS


Reduced Gas Availability for Power Sector. Penalty by Regulator (Rs. 934 Million in 2009-10) Environmental Pollution

Equivalent to 9.135 million


Tonnes of CO2. (13% of the total emissions of Pakistan).
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GENERAL PERCEPTION ABOUT UFG

ALL UFG IS THEFT


ALL THEFT IS UFG

BUT ALL UFG IS NOT THEFT !

ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL GAS THEFT

Efforts focused on controlling gas theft.

Established theft control department. Installed Cyber locks & EVCs. Dedicated lines for bulk & CNG customers. Theft by non-customers.
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These ongoing exercises have uncovered some theft cases .


Yet the UFG has increased!

UFG IN SSGC THE LAST TEN YEARS


40,000

UFG VOLUME (MMCF)


35,010

35,000 33,501 30,000 27,390


25,000 24,264 27,093

29,082

25,584 20,000 18,871 19,283 20,822

15,000

10,000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

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TRACKING DOWN SUSPECTS: UFG CLASSIFICATION

UFG

NON TECHNICAL (THEFT) COMPLEX/ UNCONTROLLABLE

TECHNICAL (OTHER FACTORS) CONTROLLABLE

INCIDENTS LEADING TOWARDS OTHER CAUSES OF UFG


30th September 1988 Hyderabad Incident Normal daily gas purchase of Hyderabad = 30 MMCFD. Normal daily sale of Industrial & Commercial Customers = 8 MMCFD.

During curfew all industrial & commercial units were closed.


Logically, Purchase should have been 30-8=22 MMCFD.

IT DID NOT HAPPEN


But actual Purchase on following days was 29 MMCFD------------------------------------------------

WHY?
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To dig deeper, Inspector Clouseau heads off to Hazara Colony, Hyderabad.

CHARACTERISTICS OF HAZARA COLONY


MANAGEABLE AREA TOTAL LENGTH OF THE LOOP = 3 Kms. TOTAL NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS = 298.
HAZARA COLONY
PRS Fatah Chowk

ZEAL PAK TM KHAN ROAD

HALI ROAD

TBS Site 50 Psig

LINE DIAGRAM OF THE AREA OF STUDY

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PRESSURE REGULATING STATION (PRS) AND THE BULK METER FEEDING HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD

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UFG AT DIFFERENT PRESSURES


HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD

UFG AT 4-5 psig

UFG AT 10-11 psig

UFG AT 21-23 psig

Purchase/Day

42.17 MCF

56.5 MCF

223.2 MCF

Sale/Day

20.38 MCF

20.38 MCF

20.38 MCF

UFG/Day

21.79 MCF (51.67%)

36.12 MCF (63.93%)

202.82 MCF (90.87%)


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IMPACT OF OVERHEAD LEAKAGE RECTIFICATION


AT 4-5 psig
Before OH rectification Purchase/ Day Sales/ Day UFG/ Day UFG % After OH Rectification

42.17 Mcf 20.38 Mcf 21.79 Mcf 51.67%

40.72 Mcf 20.38 Mcf 20.34 Mcf 49.95%

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IMPACT OF METER CHANGE

AT 4-5 psig
Before installation of new meters After installation of new meters

Purchase /Day
Sale/Day UFG/Day UFG%

40.72 Mcf 20.38 Mcf 20.34 Mcf 49.95%

39.19 Mcf 27.65 Mcf 11.54 Mcf 29.45%

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UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS


AT 4-5 psig
PURCHASE VOLUME SALE VOLUME TOTAL UFG VOLUME 42.17 MCF/DAY 20.38 MCF/DAY 21.79 MCF/DAY MCF PER DAY
% OF UFG

FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUME


OVER HEAD LEAKAGES PUG METERS
METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST METERS SLOW DUE TO OPERATIONAL EFFECT BILLING DIFFERENCES

1.45 1.37
0.43

6.66 6.29
1.97

2.51
0.14

11.52
0.64

THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) LEAKAGES


TOTAL

4.35 11.54
21.79

19.96 52.96
100.0 28

INTERIOR SINDH UFG STATUS (1982-83 to 2009-10)


Rehabilitation alongwith Augmentation & Pressure Profiling

Increasing Trend Despite Pressure Profiling Without Augmentation

Introduction of Pressure Profiling

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KARACHI UFG STATUS (1989-90 to 2009-10)


Introduction of Pressure Profiling

Without Pressure Profiling

Introduction of CNG Stations Without Augmentation and desired Rehabilitation

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LESSONS FROM NATIONAL GRID, UK & LONE STAR GAS, USA

CLUE 1 NATIONAL GRID, UK


Distribution system operates in inches of water column. Estimated Losses due to Leakages 6.3 Bcf / Annum.

Introduced Pressure Profiling in 1990.


Installed 3,500 automatic pressure profiling systems. Additional 2,000 are in process. LO
*Presented by Mr. Jonathan Dennett & Steven Vallender in 2009 IGU Conference Argentina in 2009

CLUE 2 LONE STAR COMPANY, USA


* Reducing the pressure from 10 psig to 5 psig lowers the gas leakage by 29.3%.
*Presented by Mr. Darryl Gallagher
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SHORT TERM MAGIC TOOLS TO REDUCE UFG

PRESSURE
SYSTEM AUGUMENTATION

PROFILING

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PRESSURE PROFILING
Rate of gas leakage is reduced by reducing operating

pressure.
Pressures are reduced during off-peak Period (Night) and normalized during day (Cooking Load Period).

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PIPELINE AUGMENTATION
Augmentation involves lowering operating pressures and increasing network capacity. Distribution Network becomes undersized with increase in load with time.

Network Pressures are kept high to ensure gas availability to Customers.


Undersize Network is rectified by replacement of small dia pipelines with large dia pipelines or by laying additional lines of large dia.
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COMPLICATING THE CASE OTHER FACTORS BEHIND UFG


Underground leaks (Ageing of Distribution Network) &

Overhead leaks.
Reduction in uninfected sales (Bulk) and increase in infected sales (Retail) Measurement and Billing Errors

Third Party Damages.


Pipeline ruptures due to blast / sabotage.
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GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE CASE

MONITORING UFG
Segmentation of Distribution Network in Small Zones. Analysis of Gas Sale, Purchase and UFG.

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NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO MONITOR UFG

Lets check the trends through DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS


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Differential Analysis (Decrease in UFG)


MMCF

Differential Analysis (Increase in UFG) MMCF

UFG MONITORING TOOL (DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS)

MMCF

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Region wise UFG Differential Analysis of Interior Sindh Jul-Sep 2010 (1st Qtr) V/s Jul-Sep 2009 (1st Qtr) MMCF

LONG TERM MEASURES TO CONTROL UFG

Pipeline Rehabilitation Improve Measurement Accuracy

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UFG REDUCTION: WORLD BANK FUNDING 2011-15 COMPONENT WISE PHYSICAL TARGET
Items
REHABILITATION OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
AUTOMATIC PRESSURE MANAGEMENT UNDERGROUND LEAK SURVEY AND RECTIFICATION OVERHEAD LEAKAGE SURVEY AND RECTIFICATION AUGMENTATION METERS METER TESTING EQUIPMENT SURVEILLANCE AND DATA MONITORING EQUIPMENT PIPE RECOATING CP EQUIPMENT SEGMENTATION & PRESSURE MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT
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Unit
Km
Nos. Km No. of customer connections Km Nos. Nos.

Total
5750
400 18700 2,770,300 713 13,062 24

Nos.
Km Nos. Nos.

2500
450 5902 400

UFG THROUGH THE LENS

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The Mystery of UFG has been SOLVED to a great extent. Yet this trail to clamp down on UFG cases have uncovered COMPLEX issues such as the nagging incidence of gas theft that needs further identification

COMING SOON

Clouseaus next case: Tackling Gas theft

QUESTION TIME

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UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS


AT 4-5 psig
Purchase Volume Sale Volume Total UFG Volume
FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUME 42.17 20.38 21.79 MCF PER DAY 1.45 1.37 0.43 MCF/DAY MCF/DAY MCF/DAY % OF UFG 6.66 6.29 1.97

AT 10-11 psig
56.50 20.38 36.12 MCF PER DAY 1.45 MCF/DAY MCF/DAY MCF/DAY % OF UFG 4.01

AT 21-23 psig
223.2 20.38 202.82 MCF PER DAY MCF/DAY MCF/DAY MCF/DAY % OF UFG

OVER HEAD LEAKAGES PUG METERS METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST METERS SLOW DUE TO OPERATIONAL EFFECT

1.45
1.37 0.43 2.51 0.14 4.35 192.57 202.82

0.71
0.68 0.21 1.24 0.07 2.14 94.95 100.0

1.37
0.43

3.80
1.19

2.51

11.52

2.51

6.95

BILLING DIFFERENCES
THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) LEAKAGES
TOTAL

0.14 4.35
11.54 21.79

0.64 19.96
52.96 100.0

0.14 4.35 25.87 36.12

0.39 12.04 71.62 100.0

UFG MONITORING TOOL (DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS)


Zone Wise Hyderabad Region (July-February)

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