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Pertemuan 03
Teori Peluang (Probabilitas)
Matakuliah : I0272 Statistik Probabilitas
Tahun : 2005
Versi : Revisi

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Learning Outcomes
Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa
akan mampu :
Mahasiswa akan dapat menjelaskan ruang
contoh dan peluang kejadian.
mahasiswa dapat memberi contoh
peluang kejadian bebas, bersyarat dan
kaidah Bayes.
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Outline Materi
Istilah/ notasi dalam peluang
Diagram Venn dan Operasi Himpunan
Peluang kejadian
Kaidah-kaidah peluang
Peluang bersyarat, kejadian bebas dan
kaidah Bayes

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Introduction to Probability
Experiments, Counting Rules, and
Assigning Probabilities
Events and Their Probability
Some Basic Relationships of Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayes Theorem
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Probability
Probability is a numerical measure of the
likelihood that an event will occur.
Probability values are always assigned on a
scale from 0 to 1.
A probability near 0 indicates an event is very
unlikely to occur.
A probability near 1 indicates an event is almost
certain to occur.
A probability of 0.5 indicates the occurrence of
the event is just as likely as it is unlikely.
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Another useful counting rule enables us to
count the
number of experimental outcomes when n
objects are to
be selected from a set of N objects.
Number of combinations of N objects taken n
at a time

where N! = N(N - 1)(N - 2) . . . (2)(1)
n! = n(n - 1)( n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1
Counting Rule for Combinations
C
N
n
N
n N n
n
N
=
|
\

|
.
|
=

!
!( )!
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Counting Rule for Permutations
A third useful counting rule enables us to count the
number of experimental outcomes when n objects
are to
be selected from a set of N objects where the
order of
selection is important.
Number of permutations of N objects taken n at
a time
P n
N
n
N
N n
n
N
=
|
\

|
.
|
=

!
!
( )!
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Complement of an Event
The complement of event A is defined to be the
event consisting of all sample points that are not
in A.
The complement of A is denoted by A
c
.
The Venn diagram below illustrates the concept
of a complement.
Event A
A
c
Sample Space S
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The union of events A and B is the event
containing all sample points that are in A or B or
both.
The union is denoted by A B.
The union of A and B is illustrated below.
Sample Space S
Event A Event B
Union of Two Events
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Intersection of Two Events
The intersection of events A and B is the set of
all sample points that are in both A and B.
The intersection is denoted by A B.
The intersection of A and B is the area of
overlap in the illustration below.
Sample Space S
Event A Event B
Intersection
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Addition Law
The addition law provides a way to
compute the probability of event A, or B,
or both A and B occurring.

The law is written as:

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
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Mutually Exclusive Events
Addition Law for Mutually Exclusive
Events
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)


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Conditional Probability
The probability of an event given that
another event has occurred is called a
conditional probability.
The conditional probability of A given B
is denoted by P(A|B).
A conditional probability is computed as
follows:


P
P
P
( | )
( )
( )
A B
A B
B
=

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Multiplication Law
The multiplication law provides a way to
compute the probability of an
intersection of two events.
The law is written as:

P(A B) = P(B)P(A|B)
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Independent Events
Events A and B are independent if
P(A|B) = P(A).
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Independent Events
Multiplication Law for Independent Events

P(A B) = P(A)P(B)

The multiplication law also can be used as
a test to see if two events are independent.

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Tree Diagram
Contoh Soal: L. S. Clothiers
P(B
c
|A
1
) = .8
P(A
1
) = .7
P(A
2
) = .3
P(B|A
2
) = .9
P(B
c
|A
2
) = .1
P(B|A
1
) = .2 P(A
1
B) = .14
P(A
2
B) = .27
P(A
2
B
c
) = .03
P(A
1
B
c
) = .56
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Bayes Theorem
To find the posterior probability that event A
i
will
occur given that event B has occurred we apply
Bayes theorem.



Bayes theorem is applicable when the events
for which we want to compute posterior
probabilities are mutually exclusive and their
union is the entire sample space.
P A B
A B A
A B A A B A A B A
i
i i
n n
( | )
( ) ( | )
( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) ... ( ) ( | )
=
+ + +
P P
P P P P P P
1 1 2 2
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Selamat Belajar Semoga Sukses.