Science and Technology in a World of Change: a New Renaissance?

Hugo De Man Em. Prof. K.U.Leuven Em. Senior Fellow IMEC Hugo.deman@telenet.be

Outline
The changing world and its challenges

Technologies for the 21st century

Towards a new renaissance?

Hugo De Man

Changing World of Science and Technology

Intelligent systems? Energy Mfg. Goods Qu Information +Bio+Nano+Energy

Life Sciences

M
1800

Phys.Sc. Th

At El 1900 Science Macro

Convergence Intelligence Complexity Neuro Science

Era Scale

2000 Technology Techno-Science Micro Nano

Hugo De Man

Changing Industrial World of the 21st Century

Century Technology I Fossil Fuel Production factor Product

20

II

Electricity

Man. Labor Capital

Mat. Goods Mech. Mobility

21

III

Chip - DNA all @ Nano-scale Information & Communication Smart Systems (ICT) Brain Labor Personalisation + Knowledge Social Networking

IV

Nano- Bio and Neurotech.

Nanomedicine

Sustainability

Hugo De Man

Societal Challenges of the 21st Century

- Energy, water, food for 9 Billion people by 2050

- Soaring cost of ageing and healthcare

- Keeping mobility safe and sustainable - Managing complexity of globalized world - Maintaining prosperity in a flattening* world
In a world of shared technology social innovation must make the difference

*T.L. Friedman: The World is Flat ISBN: 0374292884

Hugo De Man 5

Energy, Climate Change and Fossil Fuel Depletion

CO2 neutral tech

Sun

DT(2100) < 2oC

Nucl. Source: IPCC

Transport Build. Ind.

Wind

Biomass Geo

Hydro

Fossil Fuels

Clean Coal

US DOE

A huge challenge! 1GW carbon-neutral /day for 50y! Feasible? In 2010 only 25% done!
Hugo De Man 6

Converging Nanotech for Future Energy

Solar power systems (new silicon-nano-tech boom industry >1/2 silicon consumption) but renewable energy sources requires:

Smart Grid = distributed electricity production&consumption controlled by the internet (largest manmade smart system ever?)
Intelligent ICT systems = smart metering and sensor networks (can save 30% power in buildings and mfg. systems) Smart LED, OLED lighting can save up to 240 Gwatt of power by 2030

Hybrid and Plug-in E-cars can save 30% fossil fuels by 2030. (Nano tech for power electronics, supermagnets, batteries, fuel cells, smart cars & traffic control)

Non-food biofuels by synthetic biology (engineering life)

Hugo De Man 7

Converging Nanotech for Future Energy

Solar power systems (new silicon-nano-tech boom industry >1/2 silicon consumption) but renewable energy sources requires:

Smart Grid = distributed electricity production&consumption controlled by the internet (largest manmade smart system ever?)
Intelligent ICT systems = smart metering and sensor networks (can save 30% power in buildings and mfg. systems) Smart LED, OLED lighting can save up to 240 Gwatt of power by 2030

Hybrid and Plug-in E-cars can save 30% fossil fuels by 2030. (Nano tech for power electronics, supermagnets, batteries, fuel cells, smart cars & traffic control)

Non-food biofuels by synthetic biology (engineering life)

Hugo De Man 8

Ageing and Healthcare

In 2025 The young will be in Africa and India In the OECD countries >30% will be over 60
HC cost/persony()

Age

Doubling of lifestile related chronic diseases next 25y

Hugo De Man 9

Impact Health & Care cost soaring

Europe: 10% GDP, *2/20 year (BAU)
Drying pharma pipelines Development cost of new drug 7B

A challenge for techno-science

Convergence of Bio-Nano-ICT-Neuro tech will lead to:
Affordable predictive, preventive and personalized medicine

Cheaper or for the happy few?

Challenge 1: low cost systems vs. reliability, complexity, privacy Challenge 2: paradigm shift in pharma and healthcare business

Hugo De Man

10

Outline

The changing world and its challenges

Technologies for the 21st century

Towards a new renaissance?

Hugo De Man

11

Technologies for 21st Century

Towards intelligent ICT systems Convergence with Nano-Bio-Neuro

Hugo De Man

12

The Changing World of ICT

XX Century Locality bound PC Wired (preprogrammed) Local Storage XXI Century Mobile PDA (a4)

Wireless (context sensitive)

Cloud Computing Internet of Smart Things Info PROSUMER Hard- Soft- AND Wetware

Internet of Data
Info CONSUMER

Hard- Software

a4 : anyplace-anytime-to-anybody-anything
Hugo De Man 13

ICT Technology Drivers +10 years of More Moore to sub 10nm size + emerging More than Moore tech
WWW

Personal Mobile Gateway to a4 More Moore

Smart Sensors and Actuators

Polymer & Flexible Electronics More Than Moore

3-D Integration Invisible ICT Smart Dust

Hugo De Man

14

Internet of Data Internet of Things From Consumer to Prosumer

Hugo De Man imec restricted 2008

15

Towards Ambient Intelligence

Secure, reliable computing en communication invisibly embedded in every-thing and every-one A pervasive, context aware electronics ambient, sensitive and responsive to the presence of people

Hugo De Man

16

AmI is changing the way people experience their physical environment Requires a holistic design approach from society needs to technology Need for renaissance engineers And renaissance humanists Able to translate complexity into Sense and Simplicity
Living Labs! Source: E. Aarts, Philips
Hugo De Man 17

Living Labs: User Driven Open Innovation

18

AmI for Ageing Care

Source: Intel

Ageing In Place

EU Ambient Assisted Living Telemedicine and Telecare Social Contact Interfaces Remote drug prescription Home Robotics
Hugo De Man 19

AmI Telemedicine-Telecare
Smart Wireless Sensors BAN

4G
Smart Phone

Internet

3G

H DE man cmbf-2011

20 Hugo De Man

20

Growth of Body Area Sensor Markets

AmI for Energy Efficient Cars and Safe Traffic

Car cocoon / Autonomous Driving

Drive by wire Hybrid-EV

Source: MEDEA+

Smart Sensors Active Safety

Networked Cars-Traffic Control

ITS
Hugo De Man 22

Three AmI Technology Shells

A M B I E N T

$$$$

Wired

<$

Wireless
$$
J.Rabaey ASPDAC 08
Hugo De Man 23

Three Widely Different Metrics

Core Infrastructure: supercomputer/chip
> 10Tops, < 100Watt, < 100 , Tbit , GP programmability More Moore Driver

Personal Mobile Gateway

200 Gops , < 2Watt, < 10 , 100GB SSD Cognitive Radio, Smart senses, Multimedia Services Intelligence, Flexibility by embedded software More Moore + More than Moore (3D)

Sensory Swarm
Wireless interface to non-living and living things Heterogeneous technologies and architectures < 100 mW, <0.1 , ULP sensing, computing, (UWB) radio, O(mm3) More than Moore

Hugo De Man

24

The CMOS Supercomputer Chip in 2020 ? IF WE SUCCEED* THEN:

1 cm2 chip in 10nm technology @ <0.3V =
SUPERCOMPUTER/CHIP 150 32 bit processors/chip (useful? Photonics I/O?)

25 Tops, 1GHz clock

5.0 Watt 7 fJ/bit (ALL IN!) vs. 800fJ/bit today (>100 fold improvement)

* In 8 years:
Si-Ge Tunnelfets, Memristor crosspoint SRAM, EUV litho, fault-tolerant architectures, variability resilient design, // programming issue solved...
Hugo De Man 25

Hw/Sw Design Cost : Moores Antilaw?

10
4

1 B$
1000

Renesas

100

90nm

TSMC

130
10

80Mtr 40

180 250 20

5
0.1

1995

2000

2005
Year

2010

2015

After: Renesas and TSMC

Will software limit More Moore for computation?

Hugo De Man 26

What will further scaling be good for?

A few supercomputer Teraop platforms
Solid State Disks (Flash), FPGAs

A myriad possibilities for smart mobile systems and smart sensors if design compilers available for:
1 mm2 250 Gops @ 50 mW for mobile access chips

< 1 mm2 250 Mops @ 50 mW for sensory swarm motes Can live with Ion < 0.2 mA/mm but Ioff < 30pA/mm

Hugo De Man

27

A Rapidly Changing Semi Industry Ecosystem

Scaling CMOS=more compute power and bandwidth Design & Development costs rise exponentially
Sharing development cost in a few R&D consortia Limited number of Hyperscaling companies 2..3 main providers supercomputer core infrastructure chips Memory commodity chips Advanced foundries in the east serving:

- Majority of consumer oriented semiconductor companies:

Becoming fablite, fabless system chip providers Serving service and ambient intelligent system companies

EU

- More than Moore interfacing component essential part of it

CMOS + MEMS, Power, 3D, bio- nano interfacing

Hugo De Man

28

More Than Moore: a Different Game The art of ingenuity

Get to the ultimate limits of electronics

Miniaturization (<1mm3) Ultra Low Cost (< 1$) Ultra Low Power ( < 100mW): energy scavenging

ULP CMOS + M(N)EMS + 3D + RF + in 1mm3 A swarm of smart sensor motes in ad-hoc network
Hugo De Man

29

Convergence of UCMOS with Non-E World

Battery MEMS DNA Chip Image Sensor RF Chip Processor Memory

100mW

Source SAMSUNG

Intelligence Radio

NanoFluidics

Hugo De Man

30

Heterogeneous System Engineering

Ad Hoc Transducer network protocol ULP, ULV sensor + signal conditioning + A/D MicroWatt level computing UWB communication and location awareness Power Management Energy Scavenging Packaging

Multidisciplinarity in a few mm3

Hugo De Man 31

MTM Technologies for Tomorrows Products

Transportation Automotive Avionics
MicroMirrors Gyro Pressure Sensor Vibrational Power

Neuro probes

Cell Sensor

Healthcare

Thermal Power

Molecular sensor

Drug Delivery

Actuator

Fluidics

Gas Sensor

ECG/EEG

Hyperspectral mCam

Instrumentation

Probe Memory

RF switch

Timing Device

Communication

MicroMirrors

Cooling

Gyro

Gaming/ Personal Devices

32
2009 IMEC

Technologies for 21st Century

Towards intelligent ICT systems Convergence with Nano-Bio-Neuro

Hugo De Man

33

Convergence at the Nano-Scale

BIOTECH

nm

mm

cm

31nm

x109 NANOELECTRONICS
Hugo De Man imec restricted 2008 34

devices

Electronics meets Bio at Nano-Scale

action potential
K.U.Leuven

Neurons

neurotransmitter IMEC-VIB

NERF
project Transducers
Computing Communication

electrical Chi

chemical

Interpretation-control-transmission

1) In Vitro Brain Research Drug testing

Electronics meets Bio at Nano-Scale

action potential
K.U.Leuven

Neurons

neurotransmitter IMEC-VIB

NERF
project

Probes

electrical Chi

chemical
2) In vivo Neuroprobes Alzheimer Parkinson Epilepsy Brainprosthesis

ICT Interpretation-control-transmission

Smart Parkinson Electrodes

Convergence at the Nano-Scale

BIOTECH

nm NANOTECH

mm Targeted Drug Delivery

Nano Particles

cm

Biosensors
31nm

x1012 NANOELECTRONICS
Hugo De Man imec restricted 2008 38

transistor

Market evolution of NanoTech Drug Delivery

2021 136B$

http://www.cientifica.com/

Hugo De Man

39

Nano-Medicine and Cancer Treatment

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanomedicine

Hugo De Man

40

Molecular Diagnostics at Point of Care

Source: R.Pauwels Biocartis

Hugo De Man imec restricted 2008 41

Moores Law of Biotech...the 100$ Genome

Nanostructures for pM sensing

Cost per Genome

$100000000.0 $10000000.0
Massively Parallel sensing architectures

$1000000.0 $100000.0

$10000.0 $1000.0

Molecular micro-ring sensors Microfluidics, photonics

$100.0 $10.0 $1.0

20 01 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 07 20 08 20 10 20 11 20 13

http://www.genome.gov/27541954

Lab-on-chip

Sequencing PoC

Bacterial genome sequencer

Human genome sequencer (2hrs, <$1000)

Ultradeep sequencer (>10Gbp/run, <$100, <1hr)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Genome Chip BioSensors Telemed. Molecular Diagnostics Bio-informatics Targeted Drug Delivery BioSensors Telemed.

Bio-Nano-ICT convergence at all stages!

Hugo De Man imec restricted 2008

43

Towards a New Renaissance? Progress is in the merger of previously unconnected techno-cultures driven by societal needs
Societal Challenges Ambient Intelligent Systems NeuroScience Nano Technology

Intelligence

Smart sensing & actuating

More Moore Computer Science

More Than Moore Life Sciences

Hugo De Man

44

Needed: Renaissance Engineers, Scientists

M/W ready for social innovation:
Team player skills tech nerds With cross-disciplinary communication skills Trained in creative thinking at system level Lifelong in(ter)dependent learning skills Able to cope with diversity and change Putting a societal vision into a solution With economic value: entrepreneurial spirit

Co-architect of society

Prepared to take part in public debate

Hence need for: Sociology for Future Engineers

45

But who decides where we go?

Heaven (Transhumanists) : Enhanced superhumans

SOCIAL SCIENCES TECHNOSCIENCE ICT Objectives Nano Bio Prevail* Regulations Energy Legal Stability Medicine Neuro
Public Outreach

Long Term Glocal Politics & Economy

Desirable Societal Goals Eco-Economical Win-Win

Education

Media

TECHNO-LITERACY

Hell

( Luddites) Brave New World, Self-destruction

*Joel Garreau: Radical Evolution

Hugo De Man

46

Therefore Future prosperity is strongly linked to correct technological answers to the grand challenges of the 21st century.
More than the engineers business! Techno-scientific literacy a must for everybody!
Politics, Media, Citizens, Education - Universities : social sciences, arts and humanities?

Hence besides Sociology for Future Engineers

Hugo De Man 47

Techno-Science for Future Philosophers

Physics for Future Presidents
Prof. Muller U.C. Berkeley

Why not at our universities?

Im assuming that everyone in this class is going to be a leader some day, My goal is that they can look beyond the newspapers and understand things in order to make wise decisions Understanding technology is even more urgent for the politician, who has to make rapid decisions that may have enormous consequences
http://muller.lbl.gov/teaching/Physics10/PffP.html
Hugo De Man 48

Techno-Literacy Starting Early: RVO Society

Promote creative and societal aspects of techno-science in primary and secondary schools by doing. Train the trainers CERA-RVO Society: engineering thesis in social-profit sector

Chip-Chip Hurray!

IR 13
Hugo De Man 49

Are our universities ready for that?

Today
Sciences Engineering Social Sciences Hyperspecialized publication fever Mono-disciplinary research funding Publication oriented Eng. Ph.D.

Tomorrow
Techno-science for Social Innovation Cross-disciplinary research and education

Cross-disciplinary funding
Innovation oriented Eng. Ph.D.

Academic career

Technical leadership
Entrepreneurial thinking
Hugo De Man 50

K.U.Leuven Syn Bio Team designs Dr-Coli

Synthesis of smart drug delivering bacterium
4 EE engineers, 4 bioengineers, 4 biochemists

Gold medal at i_GEM contest MIT 2008

Hugo De Man

51

Organizing Techno-Science Research

Theme driven Crossdisciplinary CoE
cc1 cc2
Competence Centers S Y S T E C H Policy making

Socio-eco Challenges System Industry Industry

ccn
Academia

Demonstrators Innovators IP, Methods, Tools Spin-offs

Innovation
Hugo De Man 52

Examples : Nano-Tera, IMEC, CITRIS,

Themes drive by Societal Challenges

Tackled by cross-disciplinary teams

In economical win-win mode with industry

Hugo De Man 53

Conclusions
21st century: mankinds largest challenges ever Converging technologies can lead to solutions iff driven by political leadership on glocal scale Urgent need on long term thinking and action shareholder next quarter / next election mentality Can lead to huge econ-ecol win-win opportunities Needed: renaissance engineers, scientists, humanists Trained in thematic cross-disciplinary research organizations for social innovation Techno-scientific literacy needed at all levels of education

Hugo De Man

54

Hugo De Man imec restricted 2008

55